Comments
11/09/2019
Market Update
Tsy futures trading modestly weaker, off lows to top end overnight range last few minutes, decent volume (TYZ>395k). Yld curves unwind portion of wk’s bear steepening (3M10Y +35bp from last weeks lows).Treasuries have only seen small moves ahead of tomorrow’s key ECB meeting which has the potential to move fixed income markets globally as the ECB is expected to unveil its latest easing round. There has been little in the way of pure US news but Trump has been tweeting early this morning that the Fed should cut rates to zero or even lower. There was some movement overnight after the Global Times editor said that China would introduce measures to ease the negative impact of the trade way.
US Data release today Core PPI, it is expected to rebound to +0.2% after -0.1% in July. Headline PPI expected at +0.1% vs +0.2% in July on weak energy prices. Trade tensions and tariffs could drive up prices on select goods Food, trade services also expected to bolster PPI.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Drift as Stocks in Europe, Asia Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. stock-index futures drifted, failing to pick up momentum from a broad advance in equities in Europe and Asia after signs emerged that China will move again to lessen the trade war’s repercussions. Oil futures rose with the dollar.
Futures rise on hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Wednesday, as investors were encouraged by hopes of a resolution to the Sino-U.S. trade standoff.
Trump calls on Fed to cut interest rates to zero ‘or less’ (BNN) The U.S. Federal Reserve should get interest rates down to “zero, or less,” and then start to refinance its debt, President Donald Trump said in early Wednesday tweet.
Oil Rises as Falling U.S. Stockpiles Offset Bolton’s Ouster (Bloomberg) Oil rose as industry data showed a decline in American stockpiles, countering speculation that the ouster of U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton may lead to a less hawkish approach on Iran and Venezuela.
China starts tariff exemptions, but keeps pressure on U.S. farms (BNN) China announced a range of U.S. goods to be exempted from 25 per cent extra tariffs put in place last year, as the government seeks to ease the impact from the trade war without lifting charges on major agricultural items like soybeans and pork.
In a fracturing world, central banks still stuck together (Reuters) The last time major central banks shifted gears together, it was a cooperative move to keep the financial crisis of a decade ago from becoming a full-bore, worldwide depression.
Seoul to file WTO complaint over Japan’s ‘discriminatory’ export curbs (Reuters) South Korea plans to file a complaint over Japan’s tighter export controls at the World Trade Organization on Wednesday, accusing Tokyo of being “politically motivated” and “discriminatory” in an escalating row rooted in wartime history.
Oil curtailments hurting investment in Canadian energy: Suncor CEO (BNN) Suncor Energy Inc. President and Chief Executive Officer Mark Little said an investment chill remains in the oil and gas market, echoing comments made by his predecessor that there is a lack of investor confidence in the country’s energy sector.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.156% at 129-31, S&P 500 futures are up 0.16% at 2983.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.82% at $57.87, Gold futures are up 0.01% at $1499.4, DXY is up 0.33% at 98.654, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.7606.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.59% | 2 Year | 1.666% |
| 5 Year | 1.432% | 5 Year | 1.58% |
| 10 Year | 1.415% | 10 Year | 1.725% |
| 30 Year | 1.604% | 30 Year | 2.203% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Sep 6 Survey: — Actual: 2.00% Prior: -3.10% |
| 08:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Aug Survey: 0.00% Prior: 0.20% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Aug Survey: 0.20% Prior: -0.10% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Aug Survey: 1.70% Prior: 1.70% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Aug Survey: 2.20% Prior: 2.10% | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Jul F Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.20% |
| Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Jul Survey: — Prior: -0.30% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Capacity Utilization Rate, 2Q Survey: 82.00% Prior: 80.90% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
10/09/2019
Market Update
Treasuries have underperformed both Bunds and gilts so far this morning. There is very little in the way of key US data this afternoon with JOLTS the only highlight on a sparse calendar. Mildly weaker across the board, off early overnight lows/near top end of range on decent volume (TYZ >370k), yld curves scaling back some of Mon’s broad bear steepening. BoE Governor, Carney says with rates at 0.75% we have conventional space and unconventional space to ease policy. Now talking about counter cyclical buffer and how that can be eased to help bank lending which would give up to Stg300bln of balance sheet to lend.
News headlines
U.S. Stock Futures Drift as Treasuries Hold Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures drifted while European shares fell and Asian stocks were mixed as investors marked time before key central bank meetings in the coming days. The dollar strengthened.
TSX futures lower as gold prices drop (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Tuesday, weighed down by a drop in gold prices.
Oil Extends Gains Ahead of U.S. Stockpile Data, OPEC+ Meeting (Bloomberg) Oil extended its advance as U.S. stockpiles were estimated to have dropped and OPEC+ members gathered in the United Arab Emirates ahead of meetings this week.
U.S.-China trade war an opportunity for Turkey: Turkish minister (Reuters) Turkey sees opportunity to boost trade with the United States amid Washington’s trade war with Beijing, the Turkish trade minister said on Tuesday, reinforcing an ambitious goal of quadrupling the bilateral trade to $100 billion a year.
Many U.S. farmers fume at Washington, not Trump, over biofuel, trade policies (Reuters) American farmers helped elect President Donald Trump in 2016 on hopes he would shake up Washington and turn around a struggling agricultural economy, but many of his policies have actually stung farmers, notably his trade war with China and biofuel waivers for oil refiners.
Next EU chief says trade battle with U.S. would only benefit rivals (Reuters) Incoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that an escalating trade conflict between the European Union and the United States would only benefit their rivals.
Exclusive: Waning confidence over global recovery may nudge BOJ closer to easing – sources (Reuters) As the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war broadens, Bank of Japan policymakers are more open to discussing the possibility of expanding stimulus at their board meeting on Sept 18-19, sources familiar with their thinking say.
U.S. states launch antitrust probe of Google, advertising in focus (Reuters) Attorneys general from 48 U.S. states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico formally opened an antitrust probe on Monday into Alphabet’s Google, in a sign of growing government scrutiny of U.S. technology giants.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.179% at 130-20, S&P 500 futures are down -0.18% at 2972.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.97% at $58.41, Gold futures are down -0.73% at $1500.1, DXY is up 0.16% at 98.437, CAD/USD is up 0.04% at 0.7591.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.555% | 2 Year | 1.593% |
| 5 Year | 1.391% | 5 Year | 1.502% |
| 10 Year | 1.364% | 10 Year | 1.642% |
| 30 Year | 1.562% | 30 Year | 2.119% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Aug Survey: 103.5 Actual: 103.1 Prior: 104.7 |
| 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings, Jul Survey: 7331 Prior: 7348 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Aug Survey: 212.5k Prior: 222.0k |
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Jul Survey: 2.00% Prior: -3.70% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
09/09/2019
News headlines
U.S. Stock Futures Advance Amid Bets on Easing: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. stock-index futures climbed with equities in Asia as traders weighed a series of fresh stimulus moves expected from the world’s central banks. Shares fluctuated in Europe, where bonds slipped alongside Treasuries.
TSX futures tick up on rising crude prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Monday, following a rise in oil prices after Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister confirmed his country’s commitment to OPEC-led crude supply cuts.
China’s exports unexpectedly shrink as U.S. tariffs bite (BNN) China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in August, with sales to the U.S. tumbling amid the escalating trade war between the two nations.
Oil Rises as New Saudi Minister Signals OPEC+ Cuts to Continue (Bloomberg) Oil rose for a fourth day after Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister signaled that OPEC and its allies will continue with production cuts as the group prepared to gather in Abu Dhabi.
Japan downgrades second-quarter GDP as trade war hits business investment (Reuters) Japan’s economy grew at a slower pace than initially estimated in the second quarter as the U.S.-China trade war prompted a downward revision of business spending, intensifying calls for the central bank to deepen stimulus this month.
Time for shock and awe: Five questions for the ECB (Reuters) This week’s European Central Bank meeting is shaping up as one of the most anticipated in years as the central bank gears up to boost a frail economy with a series of stimulus measures.
As China trade war escalates, 2020 U.S. Democrats scramble over their message (Reuters) The growing economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s drawn-out trade war with China would appear to be a ready-made opportunity for Democratic presidential contenders seeking to blunt his central 2020 re-election pitch: That he has made the economy great again.
UK economy shows unexpected strength in July, dampening recession fears (Reuters) Britain’s economy picked up more than expected in July, data showed on Monday, dampening fears that it will succumb to its first recession since the financial crisis as the Brexit crisis escalates.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.238% at 131-02, S&P 500 futures are up 0.32% at 2990.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.64% at $56.88, Gold futures are up 0.3% at $1520, DXY is down -0.08% at 98.319, CAD/USD is down -0.09% at 0.7602.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.517% | 2 Year | 1.561% |
| 5 Year | 1.351% | 5 Year | 1.456% |
| 10 Year | 1.306% | 10 Year | 1.589% |
| 30 Year | 1.524% | 30 Year | 2.065% |
US Economic Data
| 03:00 PM | Consumer Credit, Jul Survey: $16.000b Prior: $14.596b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Sep 6 Survey: — Prior: 56.4 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230