Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys trading unch before Dec payrolls (160k exp vs 266 in Nov), 10Y 1.85%, avg volume in TY futures (~310k). US equity futures giving up most of o/n gains (S&P +4), crude moving lower as well.  GOCs outperforming tsys out the curve, 1.5bps tighter vs US 10s. Poloz yesterday took a more upbeat on recent economic developments, noting the tightness in the labor market and robust housing market, as well as the rebound in business investment.  Cdn employment expected to have rebounded 25k in Dec after a 71k decline, with the unemployment rate down a notch to 5.8% from 5.9% in nov.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Climb Before Jobs Report; Bonds Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) American equity futures advanced while European stocks edged higher as all eyes turned to the U.S. jobs report after a tumultuous week in global markets. Treasuries drifted.

Stock Futures firm ahead of key jobs report (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, helped by gains in high-growth technology names including Apple, while investors turned to the closely watched jobs report for confirmation that the world’s largest economy remains healthy.

TSX futures rise as Middle East conflict abates (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Friday as a de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions boosted appetite for riskier assets.

Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since July as Mideast Risk Eases (Bloomberg) Oil headed for its biggest weekly loss since July as the prospect of an immediate confrontation between the U.S. and Iran abated, allaying fears of disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

U.S. job growth seen slowing in December after robust gains (Reuters) U.S. job growth likely slowed in December, but the pace of hiring probably remains more than enough to keep the longest economic expansion in history on track despite a deepening downturn in a manufacturing sector stung by trade disputes.

As U.S. election heats up, investors brace for volatility (Reuters) A U.S. stock market that has weathered trade wars, weak corporate earnings, and now a U.S.-Iran conflict to continually hit record highs faces a new obstacle: the 2020 U.S. election season.

Dollar set for best weekly gain in two months on ‘galvanizing’ forces (Reuters) The U.S. dollar rose on Friday and is on track for its biggest weekly gain in two weeks as dissipating geopolitical tension prompted investors to buy riskier currencies, while the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gave up all their recent gains.

‘Crucial’ jobs data to reveal extent of Canada’s economic slump (BNN) Jobs data on Friday are poised to reveal just how weak the Canadian economy is.

Poloz says Bank of Canada watching global trade impacts (BNN) The head of the Bank of Canada says the central bank will be watching for signs that fallout from trade disputes currently affecting Canada’s manufacturing sector has spilled over into additional industries.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 128-29, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 3283.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.13% at $59.64, Gold futures are down -0.26% at $1550.2, DXY is up 0.05% at 97.494, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7655.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.635%	2 Year	1.578%
5 Year	1.595%	5 Year	1.653%
10 Year	1.588%	10 Year	1.851%
30 Year	1.706%	30 Year	2.322%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec  Survey: 160k  Prior: 266k
	Change in Private Payrolls, Dec  Survey: 153k  Prior: 254k
	Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Dec  Survey: 5k  Prior: 54k
	Unemployment Rate, Dec  Survey: 3.50%  Prior: 3.50%
	Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Dec  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.20%
	Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Dec  Survey: 3.10%  Prior: 3.10%
	Average Weekly Hours All Employees, Dec  Survey: 34.4  Prior: 34.4
	Labor Force Participation Rate, Dec  Survey: —  Prior: 63.20%
	Underemployment Rate, Dec  Survey: —  Prior: 6.90%
10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories MoM, Nov F  Survey: 0.00%  Prior: 0.00%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Net Change in Employment, Dec  Survey: 25.0k  Prior: -71.2k
	Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Dec  Survey: 4.20%  Prior: 4.40%
	Unemployment Rate, Dec  Survey: 5.80%  Prior: 5.90%
	Full Time Employment Change, Dec  Survey: —  Prior: -38.4
	Part Time Employment Change, Dec  Survey: —  Prior: -32.8
	Participation Rate, Dec  Survey: 65.6  Prior: 65.6

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher before Initial claims, risk off buying after Iran headlines it will retaliate with missile attacks against US forces, US 10Y 1.865% (-1bp), curve 1bp flatter with short end unch. Fed Clarida saying inflation expectations are at low end while tight labor market not putting pressure on inflation as yet. UK gilts leading EGBs higher, 10Y gilt -2.5bps @ 0.79%, BOE Carney speech seen as dovish, noting the BOE still has room to deal with recession. GOCs higher, 1bp tighter vs tsys, 10Y 1.61%, GOC curve continues to steepen led by the long end, 10s30s 12.4bpshighest since late Nov. Pembina in the marker yest with three part 10s & longs said to be ~3x oversubscribed.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Climb on Mideast Calm; Gold Drops: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures advanced on Thursday while stocks rose across Europe and Asia, extending a relief rally after America and Iran appeared to step back from a deeper military conflict. The yen and gold declined, oil steadied after a plunge and the pound retreated.

TSX futures rise as U.S.-Iran tensions cool (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures edged higher on Thursday after the United States and Iran retreated from further conflict in the Middle East.

Oil Steadies After Giving Up Gains From U.S.-Iran Hostilities (Bloomberg) Oil steadied after rapidly shedding all of its gains from the clash between the U.S. and Iran, as traders waited to see whether any further hostilities will disrupt exports from the Middle East.

China’s Vice Premier Liu to sign U.S. trade deal in Washington next week (Reuters) China’s Vice Premier Liu He, head of the country’s negotiation team in Sino-U.S. trade talks, will sign a “Phase 1” deal in Washington next week, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.

Back from the brink, back on the bull ride (Reuters) World markets looked to have overcome their new year wobbles on Thursday, as the United States and Iran backed away from conflict in the Middle East.

Tanker owners face insurance headache as Mideast war risk haunts shipping trade (Reuters) Even as the United States and Iran appear to signal a keenness to avoid further conflict, oil and gas shipowners are bracing to pay a price for the war of words that culminated in rocket strikes in Iraq over the last week – higher insurance bills.

Divergent paths: Oil, natural gas going different directions (Reuters) The diverging fundamentals of U.S. oil and natural gas can be seen dramatically in the markets, where the oil-to-gas price ratio has surged to its highest in six years.

World food prices surge for third month to 5-year high in December: U.N. FAO (Reuters) World food prices surged for the third consecutive month to reach a five-year high in December, lifted by strong rises in vegetable oils, sugar and dairy as well as rebounding cereal prices, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.073% at 128-28, S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 3269, Crude oil futures are up 0.55% at $59.94, Gold futures are down -0.35% at $1554.7, DXY is up 0.07% at 97.37, CAD/USD is up 0.12% at 0.766.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.635%	2 Year	1.574%
5 Year	1.606%	5 Year	1.655%
10 Year	1.612%	10 Year	1.862%
30 Year	1.732%	30 Year	2.345%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims, Jan 4  Survey: 220k  Prior: 222k
	Continuing Claims, Dec 28  Survey: 1720k  Prior: 1728k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan 5  Survey: —  Prior: 63.9

Canadian Economic Data

08:15 AM	Housing Starts, Dec  Survey: 210.5k Actual: 197.3k  Prior: 201.3k
08:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Nov  Survey: 1.00%  Prior: -1.50%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Sharp risk-off/safe-haven bid to Iran retaliatory missile strikes on US air bases in Iraq late Tuesday have evaporated amid miraculous reports of zero casualties. Pres Trump postponed address to nation from last night to sometime this morning. Tsy futures trading marginally higher, well off overnight highs/near lows on very heavy volumes, TYH already over 1.36M futures; 10YY fell to 1.7065% low on early overnight action, currently back to 1.8060%. Overnight trade included prop, fast- and real$ buying cross the curve early on, turning two-way as retaliatory strikes deemed more measured than escalatory, real$ sellers with prop accts in long end, swap-tied selling in 5s and 7s, pre-auction short sets ahead 10Y auction R/O.  The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 1.5363%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 1.6073%, 10-Yr is down 0.3bps at 1.8143%, and 30-Yr is down 0.5bps at 2.3001%.

News headlines

U.S. Stock Futures Lead Rebound as Iran Jolt Fades: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Futures on the benchmark U.S. stock gauge turned positive on Wednesday, recovering from a plunge after Iranian missiles struck American military bases in Iraq. Gold, Treasuries and oil all pared earlier out-sized gains as Iran stressed it didn’t seek a war.

TSX futures rise as Middle East worries ease (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Wednesday as fears of escalation in Middle East conflict after Iran’s attack on U.S. forces in Iraq ebbed, and as oil prices rose.

Iran Retaliates With Missile Strike on U.S.-Iraqi Bases (Bloomberg) Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at U.S.-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for an American airstrike that killed a top Iranian general, yet the potential for a dramatic escalation was mitigated by the fact that there were no U.S. casualties.

Oil Rally Cools as Iranian Strike Causes No U.S. Casualties (Bloomberg) Oil’s rally faded as the U.S said Iranian airstrikes on military bases in Iraq didn’t cause any casualties, reinforcing speculation that Tehran is opting for limited retaliation over the killing of a top general.

Investors pause equity selling as fears of immediate Iran-U.S. escalation fade (Reuters) Global equities fell on Wednesday and Wall Street was set for a weaker open after Iran’s attack on U.S.-led forces in Iraq, but earlier sharp market moves faded as fears abated that the raid would lead to an immediate military escalation.

Futures steady as Iran retaliation seen as contained (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures turned higher on Wednesday after Iran signaled no further escalation in military strikes following its attack on U.S.-led forces in Iraq, allaying investor worries of a wider war in the Middle East.

Exclusive: China suspends national rollout of ethanol mandate – sources (Reuters) China has suspended its plan to implement a nationwide gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol this year, three sources briefed on the matter said, following a sharp decline in the country’s corn stocks and limited production capacity of the biofuel.

European shares dip on Iran missile strike, weak German factory data (Reuters) European shares dropped on Wednesday after an Iranian missile strike on U.S. forces in Iraq prompted moves out of risk assets, while signs of a sustained manufacturing slump in Germany spelt further gloom for the region.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.048% at 129-07, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 3242.25, Crude oil futures are down -1.02% at $62.06, Gold futures are up 0.04% at $1574.9, DXY is up 0.23% at 97.226, CAD/USD is up 0.1% at 0.7683.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.637%	2 Year	1.536%
5 Year	1.579%	5 Year	1.611%
10 Year	1.576%	10 Year	1.816%
30 Year	1.688%	30 Year	2.299%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan 3  Survey: —  Actual: 13.50% Prior: -13.20%
08:15 AM	ADP Employment Change, Dec  Survey: 160k Actual: 202k Prior: 67k Revised 124k
03:00 PM	Consumer Credit, Nov  Survey: $16.000b  Prior: $18.908b

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230