Commentaires

Market Update

US tsys trading unch, prices fading since early NA trading on avg volume (TY 350k), 10Y 1.775%, long end outperforming slightly.  US futures higher, S&P +13, Nasdaq +60. Core EGBs mixed – UK gilts under pressure after upbeat factory survey – CBI optimism rose to 6 year high in Jan. GOCs lower ,  0.5-1bp wider vs tsys before Dec CPI & BOC decision. CPI expected to have risen 2.3% from 2.2%, with the common core measure unch at 2.4% –  the avg core measure rose to 2.17% in Nov the highest since 2009.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Gain as China Moves to Contain Virus: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures gained on Wednesday as China took steps to contain the spread of a deadly virus that had rattled international markets. Treasuries and the dollar were steady.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures tick up ahead of BoC policy meeting, inflation data (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Wednesday, ahead of the central bank’s interest rate decision and inflation data due later in the day.

Stephen Poloz enters home stretch hawkish on rates (BNN) Stephen Poloz is heading into the final few months of his term as Bank of Canada governor showing few signs of giving up his status as one of the industrialized world’s most hawkish central bankers.

Oil Declines on Concerns Asia Virus Could Reduce Demand (Bloomberg) Oil declined on concerns that a coronavirus outbreak in Asia could spread and curtail demand in a market that’s already contending with plentiful supplies.

Trump says will meet with WTO chief, promises ‘dramatic’ steps (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed dramatic action with the World Trade Organization, saying the group’s director general would visit Washington as soon as next week, but giving no other details.

Trump says he expects to make trade deal with Europe (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he expects to be able to make a trade deal with Europe, but that negotiating an agreement is in many ways tougher than the trade pact he brokered with China.

PRECIOUS-Gold steadies on central bank policy expectations (Reuters) Gold was little changed on Wednesday as strong technical support on expected dovish monetary policy from global central banks offset revived appetite for riskier assets and an upbeat dollar.

With record profits on Wall Street, small bonuses will annoy bankers: experts (Reuters) Most Wall Street banks announced their fourth quarter profits beat industry expectations last week. But by the end of this week, bank sources and compensation experts told Reuters, most of their staff will be underwhelmed by their bonuses.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.048% at 129-17, S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% at 3332.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.87% at $57.87, Gold futures are down -0.13% at $1555.9, DXY is up 0.02% at 97.55, CAD/USD is down -0.14% at 0.7662.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.623%	2 Year	1.53%
5 Year	1.544%	5 Year	1.578%
10 Year	1.525%	10 Year	1.774%
30 Year	1.634%	30 Year	2.231%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan 17 Survey: —  Actual: -1.20% Prior: 30.20%
08:30 AM	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec  Survey: 0.13  Prior: 0.56
09:00 AM	FHFA House Price Index MoM, Nov  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.20%
10:00 AM	Existing Home Sales, Dec  Survey: 5.43m  Prior: 5.35m
	Existing Home Sales MoM, Dec  Survey: 1.50%  Prior: -1.70%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Nov  Survey: -0.40%  Prior: -1.10%
	CPI NSA MoM, Dec  Survey: 0.00%  Prior: -0.10%
	CPI YoY, Dec  Survey: 2.30%  Prior: 2.20%
	Consumer Price Index, Dec  Survey: 136.4  Prior: 136.4
	New Housing Price Index MoM, Dec  Survey: 0.00%  Prior: -0.10%
	New Housing Price Index YoY, Dec  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: 0.00%
10:00 AM	Bank of Canada Rate Decision, Jan 22  Survey: 1.75%  Prior: 1.75%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US  tsys  trading higher on heavy volume in TY futures (610k), 10Y  1.795% (-2.5bps). Risk off move linked to deaths tied to Coronavirus in China, US equity futures lower with S&P -10.25, thou crude and gold are lower.  European bonds mostly lower led by 10Y gilts ~ UK employment came in above exp (208k vs 110k exp) with AHE 3.2% vs 3.1% exp). GOCs higher, lagging the move in tsys by 1bp in 10s. Nov Manufacturing Sales weaker than exp (-0.6% vs -0.5%) with Oct revised lower. Dec CPI and BOC rate decision tomorrow.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Slip as Europe Stocks Trim Decline: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures slipped on Tuesday, pointing to declines after the long weekend as investors grapple with worries about a deadly virus in China that sparked earlier declines across Asia and Europe. Treasuries rose.

TSX falls on China virus worries, weaker oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Tuesday, as rising worries about a new virus in China prompted a flight to safe-haven assets and oil prices fell on easing supply concerns.

Oil Slides as Ample Supplies Soften Shock of Libya Disruption (Bloomberg) Oil fell as global markets remained comfortably supplied despite the suspension of exports from Libya, and as equities faltered on political and economic worries in Asia.

Trump takes credit for economic boom ahead of impeachment trial (BNN) President Donald Trump boasted about his handling of the U.S. economy in a speech to business and political leaders in Davos, hours before his impeachment trial was set to begin in Washington.

China virus sends shiver through markets as risks mount (Reuters) Global shares took a beating on Tuesday, wiping out all gains made at the start of the week as mounting concerns about a new strain of coronavirus in China sent a ripple of risk aversion through markets.

Mnuchin says Phase 2 trade deal may not remove all tariffs: WSJ (Reuters) The Phase 2 trade deal with China would not necessarily be a “big bang” that removes all existing tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Wall Street Journal in an interview.

BOJ raises growth forecast, signals status quo on policy outlook (Reuters) The Bank of Japan nudged up its economic growth forecasts on Tuesday and was cautiously optimistic about the global outlook, though it said ongoing risks meant it was far to soon to consider scaling down its massive stimulus program.

China virus sends chill through markets as risks rise (Reuters) Global stock markets took a hit on Tuesday as mounting concern about a new strain of coronavirus in China sent a ripple of risk aversion through markets.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.242% at 129-12, S&P 500 futures are down -0.29% at 3315.25, Crude oil futures are down -1.47% at $57.68, Gold futures are down -0.36% at $1554.7, DXY is down -0.16% at 97.45, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.7657.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.64%	2 Year	1.543%
5 Year	1.565%	5 Year	1.596%
10 Year	1.552%	10 Year	1.795%
30 Year	1.669%	30 Year	2.257%

US Economic Data

There is no US economic data for today

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Manufacturing Sales MoM, Nov  Survey: -0.50% Actual : -0.60%  Prior: -0.70%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading mixed, short end higher while the long end steepened around the 10Y (1.825% + 1.5bps), late yesterday the US treasury announced it will issue a new 20Y bond in the first half of the year. Prices of the best levels after  Dec Housing Starts jumped to 1608k or 16.9% m/m vs 1.1% exp. US equity futures higher, S&P +7.75, Nasdaq +34, while crude is up for a second day 58.80.  Disappointing UK Retail Sales supporting gilts, which have rallied led by the short end , and in the wake of weak Dec CPI and dovish BOE comments. German bunds mixed, focus shifts to ECB meeting next week.  GOCs unch, 10Y 1.55%. Yesterday Cdn Western Bank issued $300mln 5Y dep notes @ 104 also way oversubscribed

News headlines

U.S. Futures Rise With Stocks; Dollar Edges Higher: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures ground higher on Friday alongside stocks globally as a solid start to the American earnings season, easing trade tensions and mostly promising economic data all combined to prop up sentiment. The dollar edged upward.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures rise on promising China data (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index rose on Friday after Chinese data suggested that the world’s second-biggest economy was stabilizing.

Oil Near $59 as Trade Deal Hopes Jostle With Ample Supply (Bloomberg) Oil was near $59 a barrel in New York after rising the most in almost two weeks as the U.S. and China signed a trade agreement, though remains capped by signs that supplies remain plentiful.

The yield curve’s still weird. Fed’s Bullard is okay with that (Reuters) It was more than a year ago when St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard started raising the alarm about a U.S. bond market where interest rates seemed to show investors losing faith in the economy, a risky environment for the Fed to carry out planned rate increases.

China posts weakest growth in 29 years as trade war bites, but ends 2019 on better note (Reuters) China’s economic growth cooled to its weakest in nearly 30 years in 2019 amid a bruising trade war with the United States, and more stimulus is expected this year as Beijing tries to boost sluggish investment and demand.

UK consumers cut back on spending again, adding to economic gloom (Reuters) British consumers failed to increase their spending for a record fifth month in a row in December, adding to signs of economic weakening that might prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates this month.

Frustrated Lebanese depositors turn rage on crisis-hit banks (Reuters) As cash runs short at Lebanon’s banks, so has the patience of depositors. Hit by restrictions on withdrawals, some are taking extreme steps, occupying branches and in one case taking an employee hostage, to squeeze what they can from their accounts.

China’s economy grew 6% in fourth quarter as demand stabilized (BNN) China’s economy stabilized last quarter after slowing to the weakest pace in almost three decades, with the first acceleration in investment since June signaling that a firmer recovery could be underway.

World shares gain as China data fuels bets on growth (Reuters) World shares rose to record highs on Friday, buoyed by Chinese growth figures that suggested the world’s second-biggest economy was stabilizing.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.036% at 129-07, S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% at 3324.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.29% at $58.69, Gold futures are up 0.58% at $1559.5, DXY is up 0.15% at 97.463, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7663.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.644%	2 Year	1.551%
5 Year	1.569%	5 Year	1.613%
10 Year	1.556%	10 Year	1.815%
30 Year	1.687%	30 Year	2.276%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Housing Starts, Dec 1608K  Survey: 1380k  Prior: 1365k
	Housing Starts MoM, Dec 16.9% Survey: 1.10%  Prior: 3.20%
	Building Permits, Dec 1416K  Survey: 1460k  Prior: 1482k
	Building Permits MoM, Dec -3.9% Survey: -1.50%  Prior: 1.40%
09:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Dec  Survey: -0.20%  Prior: 1.10%
	Capacity Utilization, Dec  Survey: 77.00%  Prior: 77.30%
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Jan P  Survey: 99.3  Prior: 99.3
	JOLTS Job Openings, Nov  Survey: 7250 Prior: 7267

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Int’l Securities Transactions, Nov -1.75b Survey: —  Prior: 11.32b

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230