Overview

In the U.S., major equity benchmarks were little changed in November, with the S&P 500 edging up about 0.1% as strength in healthcare and select defensive balanced weakness in technology and other prior leaders. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite pulled back from mid‑month records but managed to hit a new all time high in the last day of the month, supported by gains in cyclicals, energy, and materials. Across both markets, investors focused on central‑bank communication, labour trends, and late‑year inflation data to gauge how far the current easing cycle can progress.​

U.S. Market Performance & Policy

The S&P 500 finished November essentially flat at +0.13%, extending an already strong year even as leadership broadened away from mega‑cap growth. Healthcare outperformed, while large‑cap growth and the Nasdaq underperformed as investors rotated out of crowded AI‑related trades and reassessed earnings expectations.​

Sentiment turned more cautious as consumer confidence fell sharply and manufacturing data remained in contraction, even as services activity stayed in expansion territory. The Federal Reserve, having cut rates earlier in the fall, maintained a data‑dependent tone and signalled that future moves will hinge on how inflation and labour conditions evolve from here. Key releases to watch into December and January include updated CPI prints, delayed jobs data, and fresh FOMC projections that will help clarify the likely pace of any 2026 rate cuts.​

Key U.S. Economic Data

• Federal Funds Rate: Target range around 3.5%–3.75% after recent 25‑basis‑point cuts, marking a gradual shift toward easier policy.​

• Unemployment Rate: The November employment report showed only modest job gains, with mixed signals around underlying labour‑market momentum.​

• Consumer Confidence Index: The Conference Board index dropped to 88.7 in November, the lowest since April, reflecting heightened concern over income, jobs, and tariffs.​

• ISM Manufacturing Index: Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, indicating continued contraction in factory activity.​

• ISM Services Index: Services PMI stayed above 50, pointing to ongoing though moderating expansion in the larger services economy.​

Canadian Market Overview

The S&P/TSX Composite experienced increased volatility through November, trading roughly 1.2% below earlier peaks mid‑month before ultimately revisiting and surpassing prior record highs late in the period. Strength in energy, financials, and resources that had driven gains earlier in the year gave way to more mixed sector performance as investors digested softer global growth signals and shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy.​

Labour data surprised positively: Canada added about 54,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5%, its second consecutive monthly improvement and an encouraging sign for domestic demand. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% in December, reinforcing October’s message that policy is now close to neutral and that further moves will depend on incoming inflation and growth data. With inflation moderating and growth steady but unspectacular, markets interpreted this stance as supportive for risk assets without signalling an imminent acceleration in easing.​

Key Canadian indicators to monitor into year‑end include headline and core CPI, additional labour‑market releases, and business sentiment surveys, all of which will shape expectations for any further Bank of Canada action in the first half of 2026.​

Outlook

Heading into December, both U.S. and Canadian markets face a familiar trade‑off: easier monetary policy and still‑healthy employment versus weakening confidence and patchy manufacturing data. For long‑term investors, the focus remains on whether inflation can continue to cool without a material deterioration in labour conditions, and how sensitive equity valuations are to any downside surprise in growth or geopolitics.​