Market Update
US tsys trading mixed, short end yields slightly higher with the 10Y 1.94% (unch), curve 1bp flatter 2s30s, heavier volume in TY futures (498k). US equity futures slightly higher, crude unch 57.00. Core EGBs mixed, UK gilts slightly lower, bunds mixed with the short end higher despite a much stronger ZEW expectations (-2.1 vs -13), the highest since May. The UK DMO confirmed issuance will rise by £5bln this FY to £126.8bln Pres Trump speaks at noon at the Economic Club of NY. In Canada, GOCs are lower, 2bps wider vs tsys in the long end, short end outperforming. Last Friday’s jobs data was mixed, lower headline figure offset by accelerating in hourly wages (+4.4%).
News headlines
Stocks Rise Amid Trade-War Lull; Treasuries Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged higher on Tuesday as European and Asian stocks rose amid a lull in trade-war headlines and simmering tension in Hong Kong. Treasuries fluctuated after a long weekend.
Markets hope for positive signs from Trump trade speech (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to discuss the country’s trade policy at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, and the markets are likely to hang on every word.
Trump expected to delay auto tariffs as Europe invests in U.S. (BNN) The Trump administration may delay a decision on whether to slap tariffs on European automobiles after an intense lobbying campaign by German carmakers highlighted plans to shift global production to American suppliers, people familiar with the White House deliberations said.
OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 Without Deeper Supply Curbs (Bloomberg) With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures higher ahead of Trump’s trade speech (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Tuesday over hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump may signal progress on trade talks with China.
China will keep macro policies stable to achieve targets for 2019 (Reuters) China will use counter-cyclical adjustment measures more effectively and keep macro policies stable to ensure key economic targets for this year are achieved, state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Tuesday.
China to tighten liquidity risk management on smaller banks: regulator (Reuters) China’s banking and insurance regulator said on Tuesday it will tighten liquidity management for the country’s smaller banks and offer cross-region liquidity support for rural commercial banks if needed.
Explainer: What a roll-back of Trump tariffs on Chinese goods may look like (Reuters) The latest bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations to cool a 16-month-old trade war is whether President Donald Trump would roll back tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, and how soon.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.085% at 128-09, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 3088.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.46% at $57.12, Gold futures are down -0.21% at $1454, DXY is up 0.16% at 98.354, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.755.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.584% | 2 Year | 1.681% |
| 5 Year | 1.562% | 5 Year | 1.747% |
| 10 Year | 1.585% | 10 Year | 1.938% |
| 30 Year | 1.741% | 30 Year | 2.415% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Oct Survey: 102.0 Actual: 102.4 Prior: 101.8 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230