Market Update
Tsys trading weaker, yet have rebounded close to highs of European session, on light volume in TY futures (260k),10Y 2.095% (+1.2bps). US equity futures slightly higher (S&P +3.5), crude ~1.0% lower. Data today second tier with June Empire Man, NAHB & TIC flows. GOCs moving higher with tsys, 10Y 1.44%. Expect more provincial issuance with all in yields low and relative lack of corp supply.
News headlines
S&P Futures Drift as Focus Turns to Central Banks: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures drifted on Monday while European stocks edged lower following a mixed session in Asia as a big week for central-bank policy gets underway. Treasuries fell and the dollar was steady.
ECB Officials Say Bank Ready to Act Amid ‘Alarming’ Market Signs (Bloomberg) European Central Bank policy makers said the institution will act if needed to support the economy, keeping alive the possibility of interest-rate cuts or quantitative easing returning to the euro area.
Fed likely to resist pressure to cut U.S. rates this week (Reuters) The U.S. Federal Reserve, facing fresh demands by President Donald Trump to cut interest rates, is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a policy meeting this week but possibly lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year.
Stocks, dollar hold gains with all eyes on Fed meeting (Reuters) Share markets couldn’t add to recent gains and government bond yields inched fractionally higher on Monday, as investors hunkered down for what is shaping up to be a crucial week for global monetary policy.
China pulls WTO suit over claim to be a market economy (Reuters) China has halted a dispute at the World Trade Organization over its claim to be a market economy, a panel of three WTO adjudicators said on Monday, meaning Beijing must accept continued EU and U.S. “anti-dumping” levies on cheap Chinese goods.
BOJ to stand pat even as trade war, dovish Fed cloud outlook (Reuters) The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its massive stimulus program on Thursday and signal its readiness to ramp up monetary support if growing risks such as the escalating U.S.-China trade war threaten the economy’s modest expansion.
Iran, Russia talks raise hopes of progress on OPEC+ meeting date (Reuters) Iran’s oil minister is scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart in Iran later on Monday, industry sources said, raising hopes of progress in resolving a month-long impasse over when OPEC and its allies will hold their next policy gathering.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.012% at 127-10, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 2897.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.86% at $52.06, Gold futures are down -0.08% at $1343.4, DXY is down -0.16% at 97.42, CAD/USD is down -0.07% at 0.7462.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.389% | 2 Year | 1.867% |
| 5 Year | 1.334% | 5 Year | 1.851% |
| 10 Year | 1.442% | 10 Year | 2.094% |
| 30 Year | 1.697% | 30 Year | 2.592% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Empire Manufacturing, Jun Survey: 10.5 Actual: -8.6 Prior: 17.8 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index, Jun Survey: 67 Actual: — Prior: 66 | |
| 04:00 PM | Net Long-term TIC Flows, Apr Survey: $30.8b Actual: — Prior: -$28.4b |
| Total Net TIC Flows, Apr Survey: — Actual: — Prior: -$8.1b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Securities Transactions, Apr Survey: — Actual: -12.80b Prior: -1.49b |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Jun 14 Survey: — Actual: — Prior: 56.4 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230