Market Update
US tsys higher, 10Y 2.565% (-2.5bps), heavy volume in TY futures (540k) ahead of March Retail Sales & Phili Fed Index. Equity futures rebounding from early losses, S&P +2.5. EGBs higher, outperforming tsys, sharp spike in bund futures after weaker Eurozone PMIs. MNI Positioning Indicator pointing to short setting being the theme in core EGBs all week. Furthermore, due to the holidays issuance declines markedly to just E6.5bln vs E13.4bln this week, while redemptions total E31.2bln (E29.3bln of which is the OAT 4.25 19) – so this could also be supportive of prices before the long weekend. GOCs higher, in line with tsys before Feb Retail Sales – 0.4% expected from -0.3% in Jan, the rebound coming from higher gas prices and auto sales (10% in feb).
News headlines
Bonds Advance, Stocks Mixed Before Holiday Weekend: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Treasuries led a rebound in global bonds on Thursday, while U.S. equity futures edged lower and European stocks fluctuated as a cautious mood gripped markets before the long holiday weekend.
Stock futures subdued after weak manufacturing data from Europe (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures were muted on Thursday, as weak manufacturing data out of Europe underscored concerns of a global slowdown, while investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of a long-awaited Mueller report.
Oil Steadies as Political Risks Mingle With Economic Worries (Bloomberg) Oil steadied below $64 a barrel in New York as ongoing threats to supply from political crises were offset by disappointing indicators on the global economy.
CANADA STOCKS-Futures weighed down by global growth concerns (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were slightly lower on Thursday, ahead of a long Easter weekend, after world markets erased this week’s gains on fears of a slowdown in global growth following weak manufacturing surveys from Asia and Europe.
Trump team readies PR offensive on North America trade deal’s economic effects (Reuters) The Trump administration is readying a public relations offensive over the economic impact of its new North American trade deal to counter a crucial report expected on Thursday that economists see as likely to show minimal gains at best.
UK consumers keep calm and carry on shopping before Brexit deadline (Reuters) British shoppers ignored worries about an impending Brexit deadline and spent heavily in March, official data showed on Thursday, supporting the country’s sluggish economy while companies were cutting back on investment.
Mueller Day: What to Look for When His Redacted Report Is Out (Bloomberg) Attorney General William Barr is set to release a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report Thursday, and the document could leave everyone unsatisfied — President Donald Trump, lawmakers and the public.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.646% | 2 Year | 2.382% |
| 5 Year | 1.642% | 5 Year | 2.373% |
| 10 Year | 1.794% | 10 Year | 2.565% |
| 30 Year | 2.068% | 30 Year | 2.977% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales Advance MoM, Mar Survey 1.00% Prior -0.20% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior -0.40% | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior -0.60% | |
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Apr Survey 11.0 Prior 13.7 | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 13 Survey 205k Prior 196k | |
| Continuing Claims, Apr 6 Survey 1722k Prior 1713k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 14 Survey — Prior 59.8 |
| Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Apr P Survey 52.8 Prior 52.4 | |
| Markit US Services PMI, Apr P Survey 55.0 Prior 55.3 | |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Apr P Survey — Prior 54.6 | |
| 10:00 AM | Leading Index, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales MoM, Feb Survey 0.40% Prior -0.30% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Feb Survey 0.20% Prior 0.10% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230