Market Update
Tsys trading slightly higher, yields ~1bp lower across the curve, S&P futures +6, crude unch 55.90, light volume in TY futures (300k). ECB left rates unch as expected, Draghi final press conference coming up. German bunds paring losses after both Manuf & Service PMIs missed est, 10Y bund falling below -0.40%. GOCs higher in line with tsys, 10Y 1.50%.
News headlines
Private sector job losses bode ill for German hopes of end-year rebound (FP) Employment in Germany’s private sector fell for the first time in six years in October, a survey showed on Thursday, suggesting that a third-quarter slowdown in Europe’s largest economy could stretch into the closing months of the year. Markit’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed that the slight fall in employment was mainly the result of job losses in the manufacturing sector, where staffing numbers fell to their lowest level in almost 10 years.
Mario Draghi’s final press conference before leaving the ECB – live (TheGuardian) The IHS Markit flash German manufacturing PMI inched up to 41.9 in October from September’s decade-worst 41.7, which is still a reading that shows the factory segment of the country’s economy in dire straits. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. Euro zone business activity stagnated in October as demand withered, according to a downbeat survey published on Thursday hours before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi makes his swansong appearance. Germany’s economy is struggling badly, as Mario Draghi gives his final press conference as president of the European Central Bank. ECB leaves interest rates on hold-Fears mount over Germany-Eurozone economy looking sickly-Introduction: Draghi is leaving the ECB.
White House aide: Phase one U.S.-China trade deal targets intellectual property (Reuters) An initial pact on U.S-China trade will include much of a scrapped May deal’s agreement regarding intellectual property and will target enforcement mechanisms, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Thursday, adding that he hopes the Chinese negotiate in “good faith.”
Futures rise as better earnings ease nerves (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday, as solid results from Microsoft, Lam Research and Tesla lifted sentiment following lackluster reports from big bellwether companies in the previous session.
BOJ leaning toward holding fire on market calm, trade war truce (Reuters) The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping monetary policy steady next week as stable markets, a truce in U.S.-China trade talks and robust domestic demand give it room to save its dwindling ammunition to battle the next recession, sources said.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.048% at 129-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 3011.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.23% at $55.84, Gold futures are down 0% at $1495.7, DXY is down 0% at 97.487, CAD/USD is down 0% at 0.765.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.623% | 2 Year | 1.57% |
| 5 Year | 1.53% | 5 Year | 1.57% |
| 10 Year | 1.508% | 10 Year | 1.749% |
| 30 Year | 1.612% | 30 Year | 2.236% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders, Sep P Survey: -0.70% Prior: 0.20% |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Sep P Survey: -0.20% Prior: 0.50% | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Sep P Survey: -0.10% Prior: -0.40% | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Sep P Survey: -0.20% Prior: 0.30% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, 43739 Survey: 215k Prior: 214k | |
| Continuing Claims, 41183 Survey: 1678k Prior: 1679k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, 44105 Survey: — Prior: 6350.00% |
| Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Oct P Survey: 5090.00% Prior: 5110.00% | |
| Markit US Services PMI, Oct P Survey: 5100.00% Prior: 5090.00% | |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Oct P Survey: — Prior: 5100.00% | |
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales, Sep Survey: 702k Prior: 713k |
| New Home Sales MoM, Sep Survey: -1.60% Prior: 7.10% | |
| 11:00 AM | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Oct Survey: -300.00% Prior: -200.00% |
| 12:00 AM | Monthly Budget Statement, Sep Survey: $83.0b Prior: $119.1b |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today. p
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230