29/04/2019


Market Update

US tsys slightly lower, 10Y 2.505 (+0.5bps), low volume in TY futures (198k) before big week for economic data including Fed decision Wed, ADP , ISM Man & April payrolls. March Personal Income & PCE scheduled for today. Core Euro bonds lower, German bunds 1bp higher with EU peripheral spds tighter after S&P affirmed Italy at BBB on Friday. GOCs lower, in line with tsys , 10Y 1.695%.

News headlines

Stocks Mixed at Start of Data-Rich Week; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe slipped and U.S. index futures fluctuated at the start of a holiday-truncated week packed with data releases that will provide clues on global economic growth. Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher, while oil fell.

TSX futures flat as oil prices slip (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday, as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump demanded that OPEC should raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

As trade talks reach endgame, U.S.-China ties could hinge on enforcement (Reuters) U.S. negotiators head to China on Tuesday to try to hammer out details to end the two countries’ trade war, including the shape of an enforcement mechanism, the success or failure of which could set the trajectory of ties for years to come.

Mnuchin hopes latest talks may seal U.S.-China trade deal (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in an television interview that aired on Monday, said he hopes that the United States and China can finalize a trade deal with two more rounds of talks between the global economic powerhouses.

Oil Extends Decline After Trump Renews His Call for Lower Prices (Bloomberg) Oil fell again, extending its biggest retreat in two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his push for lower prices and Russia said it would soon resolve a problem with contaminated supplies.

Iran says U.S. sanctions on its oil industry will damage market stability (Reuters) U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry will damage the stability of global oil markets, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Monday.

Canadian farm exports run into Chinese wall amid diplomatic dispute (Reuters) An expanding list of Canadian farm exports is hitting obstacles at Chinese ports, leaving sellers of soybeans, peas and pork scrambling amid a bitter diplomatic dispute.

Fed may end up seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as a template for today (BNN) As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues gather this week for a policy making meeting, some of them will likely have 1995 on their mind.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks Yield Tsy Benchmarks Yield
2 Year 1.552% 2 Year 2.284%
5 Year 1.537% 5 Year 2.293%
10 Year 1.7% 10 Year 2.509%
30 Year 1.99% 30 Year 2.933%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM Personal Income, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20%
         Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior —
           Real Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.50% Prior —
           PCE Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.60% Prior —
           PCE Core Deflator MoM, Mar Survey 0.10% Prior —
           PCE Core Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.70% Prior —
10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Apr Survey 10.0 Prior 8.3

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Apr 26 Survey — Prior 55.2

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230