Market Update
US tsy yields slightly higher, 10Y 1.77%, heavier volume in TY futures due to ongoing roll (485k), S&P futures -6.0. Bunds/gilts higher, gilts rallying with the long end outperforming curve 3bps flatter. GOCs outperforming US by 1-2bps before Q3 GDP (1.3% exp). With BOC next week, GDP figures likely to figure prominently in decision. Recent CPI, retail sales and manufacturing sales were all in line or stronger (retail sales on a quarterly basis) suggesting GDP would need to come materially weaker to move the needle for a rate cut next week (~5% priced in)
News headlines
U.S. Futures Slip as Stocks Struggle; Bonds Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fell with stocks in Asia while European shares struggled for traction, signaling a lackluster finale to the third straight month of gains for major global benchmarks. The dollar was steady.
TSX futures lower ahead of GDP data (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index inched lower on Friday, ahead of the country’s gross domestic product data due later in the day.
Oil Set for Fourth Weekly Advance Ahead of Key OPEC+ Meeting (Bloomberg) Oil is heading for a fourth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since April, before a key OPEC+ meeting next week that will set the path for future production cuts.
U.S. shoppers stay away from stores, spend online as Black Friday begins (Reuters) U.S. consumers splurged more than $2 billion online in the first hours of Thanksgiving shopping on Thursday, while crowds were largely thin at retailers on the eve of Black Friday, reflecting the broader trend away from shopping at brick-and-mortar stores.
Explainer: What’s at stake in Macron’s reform of France’s cherished pensions? (Reuters) France is bracing for nationwide public sector strikes on Dec. 5 against President Emmanuel Macron’s drive to overhaul the country’s unwieldy and costly pension system.
Italy and Germany vie for ECB’s money-printing press: sources (Reuters) The German and Italian appointees to the European Central Bank’s board are vying for control of the ECB’s market operations, a key position that involves running its vast money-printing program, two sources told Reuters.
Sterling range-bound until election; two-week volatility jumps (Reuters) The pound hovered around $1.29 on Friday, showing little reaction to political headlines, with analysts expecting little movement in the run-up to the UK general election on Dec. 12.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.06% at 129-13, S&P 500 futures are down -0.19% at 3147.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.05% at $58.08, Gold futures are down -0.07% at $1459.8, DXY is up 0.12% at 98.488, CAD/USD is up 0.17% at 0.7516.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.589% | 2 Year | 1.628% |
| 5 Year | 1.496% | 5 Year | 1.631% |
| 10 Year | 1.452% | 10 Year | 1.769% |
| 30 Year | 1.56% | 30 Year | 2.19% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today.
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Quarterly GDP Annualized, 3Q Survey: 1.30% Actual: 1.30% Prior: 3.70% |
| GDP MoM, Sep Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.10% Prior: 0.10% | |
| GDP YoY, Sep Survey: 1.40% Actual: 1.60% Prior: 1.30% | |
| Industrial Product Price MoM, Oct Survey: 0.00% Actual: 0.10% Prior: -0.10% | |
| Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Oct Survey: -2.00% Actual: -1.90% Prior: 0.00% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230