Market Update
Tsys moving lower after Q4 GDP revised higher, core PCE higher 1.3% vs 1.2%, after narrow range overnite on muted volume in TY1 futures (235k), US 10Y 2.39% (+2bps). Core Euro bonds higher, the 10Y bund yield lower for a fifth day @ 0.323% three week low on divergent monetary policy after yest Reuters story saying ECB is reluctant to change its policy message while Fed Rosengren & Williams yest seemed to leave the door open for more than three rate hikes this year if warranted. German March CPI also supportive – 0.2% vs 0.4% with the y/y slowing to 1.5% from 2.2% in Feb vindicating cautious ECB outlook for removing accommodation. GOCs lower after 8:30 data , provis unch – Alberta longs yest @ 99 sold out quick as crude rallied, 98/97 bid this morn (Ont + 11).
News headlines
U.S. stock futures slightly lower ahead of Fed speakers, GDP data (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower on Thursday as investors awaited key economic data, including a final reading on fourth-quarter GDP numbers, and speeches by a host of Federal Reserve officials.
First German inflation data presses euro lower (Reuters) A swing in sentiment against the euro dominated major currency markets for a second day on Thursday, weak initial readings of German regional inflation prodding the single currency back to nine-day lows against the dollar.
Oil steady on Libya disruptions, bloated U.S. stockpiles (Reuters) Oil prices slipped on Thursday after two days of increases as bloated U.S. inventories limited the impact of supply disruptions in Libya and lower output from other OPEC exporters. Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 30 cents at $52.12 a barrel by 0945 GMT (5:45 a.m. ET). U.S. crude oil CLc1 was 10 cents lower at $49.41.
Cenovus to Double Size With $13.3 Billion Buy of Conoco Assets (Bloomberg) Cenovus Energy Inc. will double its reserves and production by buying Canadian holdings from ConocoPhillips for C$17.7 billion ($13.3 billion), the latest sale of energy assets in that country by international companies stung by falling oil prices.
Brexit Trigger Spells Trouble for U.K.’s Sweet Economic Run (Bloomberg) The U.K. economy’s sweet spot is about to be challenged. Prime Minister Theresa May kickstarted the formal withdrawal from the European Union on Wednesday, leaving businesses and investors facing the realities of Brexit and changes to everything from regulation to the movement of workers and goods.
Dollarama profit beats estimates as customers spend more (TheGlobeAndMail) Canadian discount retailer Dollarama Inc. reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday as customers spent more in its stores. The Montreal-based company said the rise in sales was aided by a 7.8 per cent increase in the average checkout bill. Dollarama also said it opened 26 new stores in the fourth quarter.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.013% at 124-18, S&P 500 futures are down -0.05% at 2355.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.83% at $49.92, Gold futures are down -0.58% at $1249.5, DXY is up 0.2% at 100.2, CAD/USD is down -0.11% at 0.7512.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | GDP Annualized q/q, 4Q T, 2.1%, est. 2.0% (prior 1.9%) |
| GDP Price Index, q/q, 4Q T, 2.1%, est. 2.0% (prior 2.0%) | |
| Personal Consumption, 4Q T, 3.5%, est. 3.0% (prior 3.0%) | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 25, 258k, est. 247k (prior 261k) | |
| Continuing Claims, Mar 18, 2052k, est. 2031k (prior 1990k, revised 1987k) | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Mar 26 (prior 51.3) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Industrial Product Price, m/m, Feb, 0.1%, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%, revised 0.6%) |
| Raw Materials Price Index, m/m, Feb, 1.2%, est. 0.9% (prior 1.7%) | |
| CFIB Business Barometer, Mar, 62.9 (prior 62.9) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230