US tsys higher, curve ~4bps flatter o/n with the US 10Y 2.15 (-3bps) on weaker global equities & Fed rate hike fears. China stocks fell 0.8% while at the same time Fed VC Fischer’s comments on inflation raised expectations of a rate hike at the Sept meeting. Core Euro bonds lagging the move higher in tsys on better than exp German retail sales (3.3% y/y vs 1.7% exp) and firmer Eurozone core CPI. GOCs are higher led by a 3bp rally in 10s on the curve, little reaction from a larger than exp Q2 current acct. provis opening unch from Fri, long Onts 100/99, Ont 45/25 bx below 11 11/10.8 – supply exp this week, perhaps as early as today – long QC , Ont 10& 30, Sask 10Y all possible.
- Fed’s Fischer: ‘Good Reason’ to Think U.S. Inflation Will Move Higher (WSJ) The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official said there is “good reason” to think sluggish U.S. inflation will firm and move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% annual target, touching on a significant assessment facing the Fed ahead of its September policy meeting.
- Weak eurozone inflation revives quantitative easing debate (FT) Inflation in the eurozone held steady in August, ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later this week that is expected to test policymakers’ appetite for more aggressive monetary easing.
- The Day After $15: New minimum wage would bring nightmare scenario to Canada, critics say (FP) In principle, Hervé Mallet supports the idea of a $15 minimum wage. “My employees deserve to have $15, they probably deserve to have $20,” said the Bathurst, N.B.-based owner of a St-Hubert Express chicken franchise. “But can I raise my prices by 40 per cent? No friggin’ way.
- Beijing abandons large-scale share purchases (FT) China’s government has decided to abandon attempts to boost the stock market through large-scale share purchases, and will instead intensify efforts to find and punish those suspected of “destabilising the market”, according to senior officials.
- Economists cut Canada’s growth projection, casting cloud on election pledges (G&M) Economists are shaving their growth forecasts for 2015 ahead of a Statistics Canada report this week that is widely expected to confirm that Canada slipped into recession earlier this year.
- Overview: IG24 5Y 80.375/80.875 (+0.5), US 10yr note futures are up +0.17% at 127-13+, S&P 500 futures are down -0.99% at 1970.0, Crude oil futures are down -2.57% at 44.06, Gold futures are down -0.54% at $1127.9, DXY is down -0.17% at 95.947.
- US BANK CDS (5yr): BAC 78/83 (+0), GS 95/100 (+0), MS 86/91 (+0), C 88/93 (+0), JPM 77/82 (+0), WFC 55/60 (+0)
US Economic Data
- ISM Milwaukee is expected at 50.0 in August versus 47.12 in July.
- Chicago purchasing manager index is forecast at 54.5 in August lower than July 54.7.
- Dallas Fed is forecast at -3.8 in August higher than July -4.6.
Canadian Economic Data
- Canada 2Q current account balance came in at -$17.4B vs -$16.9B expected and -$18.15B for 1Q.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Pierre-Olivier Boulanger
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240