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08/01/2018

by admin | Jan 8, 2018 | comments

Market Update

Tsy futures trading firmer, top end of narrow range on light volume (TYH<180k); yld curves unwinding portion of Friday’s steepening w/2s10s -0.284 at 50.952, 2s30s -.450 at 84.207, 5s30s -.217 at 51.809. Equities little weaker after making new all-time highs Fri (emini -5.75, 2736.75), gold little weaker (XAU -0.16, 1319.19), West Texas crude firmer but still off last week’s 2.5yr highs (WTI +.19, 61.63). Data this week with focus on CPI Friday (0.1% est vs. 0.4% prior), 3-, 10- and 30Y Tsy auctions two re-opening), and several Fed speakers through week (blackout period begins on Saturday, Jan 20). SF Fed pres Williams and Boston Fed pres Rosengren will touch on monetary policy and ecomic outlook at separate events Mon. Annual meeting of American Economic Assn Sat, Reuters quoted Fed president Williams that three hikes in 2018 “makes sense” while the U.S. economy “will be ‘in a very positive place two years from now: I think we’ll be at 2 percent inflation and around 4 percent unemployment'”. Minn Fed pres Kashkari speaks Tuesday, Chi Fed pres Evans and StL Fed pres Bullard at separate events on Wed. NY Fed pres Dudley will address the 2018 economic outlook Thu at a SIFMA event in NY Thursday while Bost Fed pres Rosengren rounds out wk touching on Money/Models/Innovation at an event in La Jolla, California Friday evening.

News headlines

Trump Warns Democrats Again: No Mexican Border Wall, No DACA (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said Congress should enact a measure to provide legal status to young, undocumented immigrants, provided other proposals, including funding for a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico, are also adopted — a compromise Democratic lawmakers have already rejected.

Stronger May Finally Ready for U.K. Cabinet Reshuffle (Bloomberg) Theresa May bid farewell to 2017 by firing her deputy and is starting the new year with a Cabinet reshuffle, a sign the British prime minister is intent on seeing Brexit to completion and fighting another election.

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Soars to Nearly Two-Decade High (Bloomberg) Confidence in the euro area continued its advance at the end of 2017, capping what was probably the strongest year for the economy in a decade. The European Commission’s measure of sentiment touched its highest since late 2000 in December. The reading of 116 was above the median forecast of 114.8 in a Bloomberg survey and was based on an improvement in the outlook for industry and services.

Stocks Extend Rally Before Earnings; Dollar Climbs: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Global stocks advanced before the start of an earnings season that’s expected to produce strong enough profit outlooks to support near-record-high equity prices. The dollar strengthened against the euro and the pound.

U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Expected in December (Bloomberg) U.S. payroll gains slowed by more than forecast in December, wages picked up slightly and the jobless rate held at the lowest level since 2000, adding to signs of a full-employment economy.

Montreal’s real estate market sizzles in 2017, sales hit 10-year high (Globe and Mail) Montreal was one of Canada’s hottest real estate markets last year as low unemployment and economic growth translated into the area’s best sales growth in a decade.

Lululemon shares climb as it hikes forecasts on strong holiday sales (Globe and Mail) Lululemon Athletica Inc said on Monday the holiday shopping season was even better that it had expected and raised its profit and revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter, sending the Canadian yoga and leisure apparel maker’s shares up.

Oil approaches 2015 highs on fewer U.S. rigs, OPEC (Reuters) Oil prices rose on Monday, coming close to new three-year highs on a slight decline in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for new production and sustained OPEC output cuts.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.063% at 123-19, S&P 500 futures are down -0.13% at 2739, Crude oil futures are up 0.37% at $61.67, Gold futures are down -0.11% at $1320.8, DXY is up 0.37% at 92.29, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.805.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.778%	2 Year	1.952%
5 Year	1.965%	5 Year	2.275%
10 Year	2.145%	10 Year	2.465%
30 Year	2.351%	30 Year	2.796%

US Economic Data

15:00 PM

Consumer Credit, Nov est 18.000b (20.519b prior)

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Jan 5^th (62.2 prior)
10:30 AM	Business Outlook Future Sales, 4Q (19.00 prior)
10:30 AM	BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey, 4Q (-0.5 prior)

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Happy Holidays – Joyeuses Fêtes

by admin | Dec 22, 2017 | comments

22/12/2017

by admin | Dec 22, 2017 | comments

We will be back on Monday January 8th.

News headlines

Congress Averts a Shutdown But Now Faces a Messy Start to 2018 (Bloomberg) The Republican-controlled Congress on Thursday night managed the bare minimum task of keeping the government open, yet made little progress on a medley of divisive fiscal and social issues it will now be forced to confront in January.

Catalan Separatists Win Majority of Seats, Not Votes: Chart (Bloomberg) It’s all about seats, not votes. Parties supporting Catalan independence from Spain won back control of the regional assembly, taking 70 of 135 seats after a record 82 percent turnout. Still, they got just 48 percent of votes, falling short of the majority that would boost their claims to a democratic mandate to break away from Spain.

Bitcoin Fights Back From $13,000 as Selloff Enters Fourth Day (Bloomberg) The world’s largest cryptocurrency sank as much as 21 percent, briefly trading below $13,000, before recovering to near $14,000 late in the European morning. Other cryptocurrencies also tumbled, with bitcoin cash crashing 31 percent and ethereum losing 20 percent over the past 24 hours, according to coinmarketcap.com

Catalan Vote Weighs on Stocks, Euro; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe struggled for traction and the euro declined after Catalan separatists won a regional election in Spain, news which offset solid growth data from two of the region’s big economies. U.S. equity futures and the dollar nudged higher, while Treasuries were steady.

Oil Set for First Weekly Gain Since November as Stockpiles Drop (Bloomberg) Front-month futures slid 0.5 percent in New York, trimming the weekly gain to 1.4 percent. Crude supplies slid last week to 436.5 million, the lowest level since October 2015, according to U.S. government data Wednesday. Output expanded at the smallest rate since starting a nine-week gain in mid-October. The North Sea’s Forties Pipeline System is set to return to normal flows early next year, according to a statement from operator Ineos Group

In Silicon Valley, much-feared tax bill pays dividends for workers (Reuters) The U.S. tax overhaul is a boon to Silicon Valley technology companies like Apple Inc AAPL.O and Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O, which will enjoy big tax cuts and the chance to bring back billions of dollars from overseas at a reduced rate.

U.S. Output Grew 3.2% in Third Quarter (Wall Street Journal) U.S. output grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the third quarter, the government said Thursday, a touch below a prior estimate but pointing to economic momentum ahead of a major tax cut.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.051% at 123-15, S&P 500 futures are up 0.08% at 2690, Crude oil futures are down -0.6% at $58.01, Gold futures are up 0.06% at $1271.4, DXY is up 0.13% at 93.395, CAD/USD is up 0.4% at 0.7819.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.639%	2 Year	1.891%
5 Year	1.837%	5 Year	2.251%
10 Year	2.017%	10 Year	2.487%
30 Year	2.251%	30 Year	2.846%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Personal Income, Nov est 0.4% (0.4% prior)
	Personal Spending, Nov est 0.5% (0.3% prior)
	PCE Deflator MoM, Nov est 0.3% (0.1% prior)
	PCE Deflator YoY, Nov est 1.8% (1.6% prior)
	PCE Core MoM, Nov est 0.1% (0.2% prior)
	PCE Core YoY, Nov est 1.5% (1.4% prior)
	Durable Goods Orders, Nov est 2.0% (-0.8% prior)
	Durable Ex Transportation, Nov est 0.5% (0.9% prior)
	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Nov est 0.5% (0.3% prior)
10 :00 AM	New Home Sales, Nov est 655k (685k prior)
	New Home Sales MoM, Nov est -4.4% (6.2% prior)
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Dec est 97.2 (96.8 prior)
11:00 AM	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Dec est 15 (16 prior)