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Market Update

US tsys trading mixed, short end yields slightly higher with the 10Y 1.94% (unch), curve 1bp flatter 2s30s, heavier volume in TY futures (498k).  US equity futures slightly higher, crude unch 57.00. Core EGBs mixed, UK gilts slightly lower, bunds mixed with the short end higher despite a much stronger ZEW expectations (-2.1 vs -13), the highest since May.  The UK DMO confirmed issuance will rise by  £5bln this FY to £126.8bln  Pres Trump speaks at noon at the Economic Club of NY. In Canada, GOCs are lower, 2bps wider vs tsys in the long end, short end outperforming. Last Friday’s jobs data was mixed, lower headline figure offset by accelerating in hourly wages (+4.4%).

News headlines

Stocks Rise Amid Trade-War Lull; Treasuries Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged higher on Tuesday as European and Asian stocks rose amid a lull in trade-war headlines and simmering tension in Hong Kong. Treasuries fluctuated after a long weekend.

Markets hope for positive signs from Trump trade speech (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to discuss the country’s trade policy at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, and the markets are likely to hang on every word.

Trump expected to delay auto tariffs as Europe invests in U.S. (BNN) The Trump administration may delay a decision on whether to slap tariffs on European automobiles after an intense lobbying campaign by German carmakers highlighted plans to shift global production to American suppliers, people familiar with the White House deliberations said.

OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 Without Deeper Supply Curbs (Bloomberg) With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures higher ahead of Trump’s trade speech (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Tuesday over hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump may signal progress on trade talks with China.

China will keep macro policies stable to achieve targets for 2019 (Reuters) China will use counter-cyclical adjustment measures more effectively and keep macro policies stable to ensure key economic targets for this year are achieved, state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Tuesday.

China to tighten liquidity risk management on smaller banks: regulator (Reuters) China’s banking and insurance regulator said on Tuesday it will tighten liquidity management for the country’s smaller banks and offer cross-region liquidity support for rural commercial banks if needed.

Explainer: What a roll-back of Trump tariffs on Chinese goods may look like (Reuters) The latest bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations to cool a 16-month-old trade war is whether President Donald Trump would roll back tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, and how soon.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.085% at 128-09, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 3088.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.46% at $57.12, Gold futures are down -0.21% at $1454, DXY is up 0.16% at 98.354, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.755.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.584%	2 Year	1.681%
5 Year	1.562%	5 Year	1.747%
10 Year	1.585%	10 Year	1.938%
30 Year	1.741%	30 Year	2.415%

US Economic Data

06:00 AM

NFIB Small Business Optimism, Oct Survey: 102.0  Actual: 102.4 Prior: 101.8

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading lower, 10Y 1.945% (+2.8bps), US stock futures little changed (S&P -3.5).  UK gilts lower, bunds unch- more optimism on trade pressuring EGBs, tsys. GOCs higher, 2bps tighter vs tsys after weaker Oct employment data (-1.8k vs 15k), thou hourly wages advanced to 4.4% from 4.2% in Sep.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Fluctuate as Stocks Slip; Bonds Mixed: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The risk-on mood that’s permeated global financial markets this week showed signs of easing as U.S. futures fluctuated and most European stocks slipped along with Asian equities. Treasuries swung from a gain to a loss after sliding on Thursday.

Futures little changed ahead of employment data (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Friday, ahead of key employment data due later in the day.

Oil Falls Amid Uncertainty Over Trade War and OPEC Supply Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil fell as traders awaited more concrete signs that the U.S. and China are resolving their trade dispute, and amid concerns that OPEC and its partners won’t deepen output curbs to prevent a glut.

Wall Street Weekahead: Small-cap shares poised to benefit from shift to value (Reuters) Beleaguered shares of small U.S. companies are set for a bump in performance as value stocks have risen, market analysts say, but small caps could quickly fade again with an economic setback.

China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday, sparking division among some advisers to President Donald Trump.

China’s top chip maker urges U.S. firms to help ease tensions (Reuters) The head of China’s top state-run semiconductor maker, Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd, called on U.S. companies to “do better” in efforts to overcome China-U.S. tech tensions given they continue to profit from the Chinese market.

China’s trade data show brighter exports, weak domestic demand (BNN) China’s exports declined less than expected in October as optimism rose about an interim trade deal with the U.S., while imports contracted for a sixth straight month.

Revisions paint brighter picture of Canadian economic expansion (BNN) Canada’s economic expansion was slightly more robust than initially estimated over the past two years, annual revisions show.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.134% at 128-07, S&P 500 futures are down -0.07% at 3083.75, Crude oil futures are down -1.33% at $56.39, Gold futures are down -0.5% at $1459.1, DXY is up 0.15% at 98.292, CAD/USD is up 0.17% at 0.7577.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.633%	2 Year	1.684%
5 Year	1.613%	5 Year	1.754%
10 Year	1.625%	10 Year	1.942%
30 Year	1.752%	30 Year	2.414%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories MoM, Sep F  Survey: -0.30%  Prior: -0.30%
	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.00%
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Nov P  Survey: 95.5  Prior: 95.5
	U. of Mich. Current Conditions, Nov P  Survey: 113.5  Prior: 113.2
	U. of Mich. Expectations, Nov P  Survey: 85.0  Prior: 84.2

Canadian Economic Data

08:15 AM	Housing Starts, Oct  Survey: 220.0k Actual: 202.0k Prior: 221.2k
08:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Sep  Survey: -2.00% Actual: -6.5%  Prior: 6.10%
	Net Change in Employment, Oct  Survey: 15.0k Actual: -1.8k  Prior: 53.7k
	Unemployment Rate, Oct  Survey: 5.50% Actual: 5.50% Prior: 5.50%
	Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Oct Survey: 4.2% Actual: 4.4% Prior: 4.3%
	Full Time Employment Change, Oct  Survey: 2.5 Actual: -16.1 Prior: 70.0
	Part Time Employment Change, Oct  Survey: 12.5 Actual: 14.3  Prior: -16.3
	Participation Rate, Oct  Survey: 65.7 Actual: 65.7 Prior: 65.7

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading sharply lower on heavy volume in TY futures (700k), 10Y 1.877 (+5.7bps), risk assets rallying (S&P +10.5, Nasdaq +35), crude +1.4%) on more trade optimism with China agreeing to cancel existing tariffs if a deal is reached with the US, Chinese currency rising to the highest level since early august. Gilts outperforming after BOE decision – rates unch as expected with two dissenters voting to cut rates to 0.5%, BOE lowering UK growth forecasts. GOCs lower in line with tsys, 10Y 1.59%, rates at the long end have fully retraced post BOC rally. Quiet in terms of data before employment tomorrow.

News headlines

Stocks Rise as China Spurs Trade Hopes; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S equity futures climbed with European stocks after China said it agreed with America to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in phases as they work toward a trade deal. Treasuries and gold declined.

U.S.-China trade hopes lift TSX futures (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index gained on Thursday, as signals from Beijing that a “phase one” trade deal with the United States was close to being finalized lifted investors’ sentiment and boosted oil prices more than 1%.

Oil Resumes Gains as Trade Tariff Rollback Counters OPEC Curbs (Bloomberg) Oil jumped as China and the U.S. made progress in resolving the trade dispute that has weighed on global markets this year, offsetting signs that OPEC and its partners won’t make deeper cuts to supply.

Facing shorter holiday season, U.S. retailers rev up faster delivery, early deals (Reuters) U.S. retailers are rushing in with faster-than-ever delivery deals and earlier Christmas promotions in hopes of easing the impact of this year’s shorter holiday selling season, a period that can be make-or-break for retailers.

China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to cancel in phases the tariffs imposed during their months-long trade war, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, without specifying a timetable.

China considers removal of U.S. poultry import restrictions: Xinhua (Reuters) China is considering the removal of restrictions on poultry imports from the United States, state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday.

Japan Abe pledges ‘timely’ steps to fight risks, signals more spending (Reuters) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday the government will consider what policy measures it can take to prevent heightening global uncertainties from derailing the export-reliant economic recovery.

Ontario tries to undo damage from cuts; projects lower 2019-20 deficit (BNN) Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government is reaching into its pockets for hundreds of millions of dollars to undo some of the damage caused by a year of cuts.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.411% at 128-26, S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% at 3086.25, Crude oil futures are up 1.33% at $57.1, Gold futures are down -0.44% at $1486.5, DXY is down -0.01% at 97.946, CAD/USD is down -0.11% at 0.7594.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.618%	2 Year	1.641%
5 Year	1.576%	5 Year	1.682%
10 Year	1.589%	10 Year	1.876%
30 Year	1.733%	30 Year	2.362%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 2  Survey: 215k  Prior: 218k
	Continuing Claims, Oct 26  Survey: 1682k  Prior: 1690k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 3  Survey: —  Prior: 61.0
03:00 PM	Consumer Credit, Sep  Survey: $15.000b  Prior: $17.901b

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230