Market Update
Tsys trading lower, 10Y 1.945% (+2.8bps), US stock futures little changed (S&P -3.5). UK gilts lower, bunds unch- more optimism on trade pressuring EGBs, tsys. GOCs higher, 2bps tighter vs tsys after weaker Oct employment data (-1.8k vs 15k), thou hourly wages advanced to 4.4% from 4.2% in Sep.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Fluctuate as Stocks Slip; Bonds Mixed: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The risk-on mood that’s permeated global financial markets this week showed signs of easing as U.S. futures fluctuated and most European stocks slipped along with Asian equities. Treasuries swung from a gain to a loss after sliding on Thursday.
Futures little changed ahead of employment data (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Friday, ahead of key employment data due later in the day.
Oil Falls Amid Uncertainty Over Trade War and OPEC Supply Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil fell as traders awaited more concrete signs that the U.S. and China are resolving their trade dispute, and amid concerns that OPEC and its partners won’t deepen output curbs to prevent a glut.
Wall Street Weekahead: Small-cap shares poised to benefit from shift to value (Reuters) Beleaguered shares of small U.S. companies are set for a bump in performance as value stocks have risen, market analysts say, but small caps could quickly fade again with an economic setback.
China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday, sparking division among some advisers to President Donald Trump.
China’s top chip maker urges U.S. firms to help ease tensions (Reuters) The head of China’s top state-run semiconductor maker, Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd, called on U.S. companies to “do better” in efforts to overcome China-U.S. tech tensions given they continue to profit from the Chinese market.
China’s trade data show brighter exports, weak domestic demand (BNN) China’s exports declined less than expected in October as optimism rose about an interim trade deal with the U.S., while imports contracted for a sixth straight month.
Revisions paint brighter picture of Canadian economic expansion (BNN) Canada’s economic expansion was slightly more robust than initially estimated over the past two years, annual revisions show.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.134% at 128-07, S&P 500 futures are down -0.07% at 3083.75, Crude oil futures are down -1.33% at $56.39, Gold futures are down -0.5% at $1459.1, DXY is up 0.15% at 98.292, CAD/USD is up 0.17% at 0.7577.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.633% | 2 Year | 1.684% |
| 5 Year | 1.613% | 5 Year | 1.754% |
| 10 Year | 1.625% | 10 Year | 1.942% |
| 30 Year | 1.752% | 30 Year | 2.414% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Sep F Survey: -0.30% Prior: -0.30% |
| Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Sep Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.00% | |
| U. of Mich. Sentiment, Nov P Survey: 95.5 Prior: 95.5 | |
| U. of Mich. Current Conditions, Nov P Survey: 113.5 Prior: 113.2 | |
| U. of Mich. Expectations, Nov P Survey: 85.0 Prior: 84.2 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Oct Survey: 220.0k Actual: 202.0k Prior: 221.2k |
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Sep Survey: -2.00% Actual: -6.5% Prior: 6.10% |
| Net Change in Employment, Oct Survey: 15.0k Actual: -1.8k Prior: 53.7k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Oct Survey: 5.50% Actual: 5.50% Prior: 5.50% | |
| Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Oct Survey: 4.2% Actual: 4.4% Prior: 4.3% | |
| Full Time Employment Change, Oct Survey: 2.5 Actual: -16.1 Prior: 70.0 | |
| Part Time Employment Change, Oct Survey: 12.5 Actual: 14.3 Prior: -16.3 | |
| Participation Rate, Oct Survey: 65.7 Actual: 65.7 Prior: 65.7 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230