Market Update
US tsys trading weaker, yields 1-3bps higher, US 10Y 2.465% (+2.5bps). US equity futures slightly lower (S&P -0.1%), crude 0.40% lower 58.79. Phili Fed Harker said this morn he sees one rate hike this year ‘at most’, while Fed Evans said the Fed may have to put increases on hold or even cut rates should activity soften further or inflation expectations run too low. Core Euro bonds lower, bund yields ~1bp higher, German business confidence coming in better than exp in March (99.6 vs 98.5). Gilts underperforming bunds, PM May under pressure to quiet under a non deal Brexit scenario. GOCs consolidating after Friday’s 7-8bp rally, OIS mkts now pricing in a rate cut by next year.
News headlines
Trump Claims Vindication as Mueller Finds No Russia Collusion (Bloomberg) Attorney General William Barr handed Donald Trump the biggest political victory of his presidency with an assessment that there was no collusion with Russia during the 2016 campaign and that there wasn’t enough evidence to find he obstructed justice.
U.S. Futures, Europe Stocks Trim Drop; Bonds Slip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures and stocks in Europe stabilized on Monday, as a measure of calm returned to markets following Friday’s selloff. Treasuries and European sovereign bonds fell.
Oil Steady After Biggest Loss in Three Weeks Amid Economy Fears (Bloomberg) Oil steadied in New York after its biggest loss in three weeks, yet concerns lingered that a slowdown in global economic growth will erode fuel consumption.
TSX futures little changed amid global growth fears (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Monday, as fears mount over a global economic slowdown.
Seller’s market seen aiding Illinois and Chicago bond issues (Reuters) Financial uncertainties swirling around Illinois and Chicago may not deter bond buyers when the two fiscally shaky governments sell more than $1.1 billion of debt this week.
Flattened yield curve reason to be nervous, but U.S. economy solid: Fed’s Evans (Reuters) Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was understandable for markets to be nervous when the yield curve flattened, though he was still confident about the U.S. economic growth outlook.
Positive German data tempers equity selloff, lifts bond yields (Reuters) World stocks hit a 12-day trough on Monday as fears for economic growth sent investors dashing for safe-haven assets, but the selloff lost some momentum after better-than-expected data from Germany.
Trump push for China trade reform draws wide support at home, abroad (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump’s blunt-force use of tariffs in pursuing his “America First” trade agenda has angered many, from company executives to allied governments and members of both parties of Congress.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.536% | 2 Year | 2.333% |
| 5 Year | 1.495% | 5 Year | 2.265% |
| 10 Year | 1.611% | 10 Year | 2.466% |
| 30 Year | 1.905% | 30 Year | 2.903% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Feb Surv -0.38 Actual -0.29 Prior -0.43 |
| 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Mar Surv 8.5 Prior 13.1 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Mar 22 Prior 55.2 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230