Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, yields 0.5bps higher in 10s, 10Y 1.745%, avg volume in TY futures (390k), S&P futures +3.25, crude unch 58.45. Full data slate in the US before Thanksgiving holiday including Q3 GDP, claims and durable goods at 8:30ET. Core Euro bonds mostly flat, attention turns to YouGov MRP poll for UK election. German 5Y auction oversubscribed (1.95x vs 1.73x in Oct). GOCs slightly lower in line with tsys, news of strike settlement yest unlikely to impact GOCs, strike was relatively short lived. RRB auction today, reopening of the 0.5% 2050 for $700mln
News headlines
Stocks Rise With U.S. Index Futures; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged up while stocks climbed globally as the risk-on mood that’s driven American benchmarks to record highs showed few signs of abating. The dollar was steady before the release of jobs and personal-spending data from the world’s biggest economy.
TSX futures gain on rising hopes of a trade deal (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Wednesday, as upbeat comments from President Donald Trump lifted hopes that the United States and China were close to a trade deal.
Oil Holds Steady as Trade-Deal Hopes Counter Rising Stockpiles (Bloomberg) Oil held steady as traders weighed hopes for a limited U.S.-China trade deal against a reported increase in American crude stockpiles.
China’s industrial profits post steepest fall in eight months (Reuters) Profits at China’s industrial firms shrank at their fastest pace in eight months in October, tracking sustained drops in producer prices and exports and underscoring slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.
China front-loads $142 billion in 2020 local government bonds to spur growth (Reuters) China has brought forward 1 trillion yuan ($142.07 billion) of the 2020 local government special bonds quota to this year as it seeks to avert a sharper economic slowdown.
International stocks to outperform U.S. in 2020: investors (Reuters) Even though the U.S. stock market continues a record-breaking rally that has sent the benchmark S&P 500 index up nearly 25% for the year, investors appear to be looking elsewhere for better values in the year ahead.
Trump says China deal in ‘final throes’ as top officials speak (BNN) President Donald Trump declared Tuesday that talks with China on the first phase of a trade deal were near completion after negotiators from both sides spoke by phone, signaling progress on an accord in the works for nearly two years.
Canada’s biggest rail strike in a decade ends, backlogs could nag shippers (Reuters) Canada’s longest railroad strike in a decade ended on Tuesday as Canadian National Railway Co reached a tentative agreement with workers, but shippers warned it could take weeks before service bounces back to normal.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.048% at 129-20, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 3147, Crude oil futures are up 0.15% at $58.5, Gold futures are down -0.19% at $1464.6, DXY is up 0.07% at 98.319, CAD/USD is down -0.01% at 0.7536.
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov 22 Survey: — Actual: 1.50% Prior: -2.20% |
| 08:30 AM | GDP Annualized QoQ, 3Q S Survey: 1.90% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 1.90% |
| Personal Consumption, 3Q S Survey: 2.80% Actual: 2.9% Prior: 2.90% | |
| GDP Price Index, 3Q S Survey: 1.70% Actual: 1.8% Prior: 1.70% | |
| Core PCE QoQ, 3Q S Survey: 2.20% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 2.20% | |
| Durable Goods Orders, Oct P Survey: -0.90% Actual: 0.6% Prior: -1.20% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Oct P Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.6% Prior: -0.40% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 23 Survey: 221k Actual: 213k Prior: 227k | |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 16 Survey: 1691k Actual: 1640k Prior: 1695k | |
| 09:45 AM | MNI Chicago PMI, Nov Survey: 47.0 Prior: 43.2 |
| Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 24 Survey: — Prior: 59.1 | |
| 10:00 AM | Personal Income, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.30% |
| Personal Spending, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.20% | |
| PCE Deflator MoM, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.00% | |
| PCE Deflator YoY, Oct Survey: 1.40% Prior: 1.30% | |
| PCE Core Deflator MoM, Oct Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.00% | |
| PCE Core Deflator YoY, Oct Survey: 1.70% Prior: 1.70% | |
| Pending Home Sales MoM, Oct Survey: 0.20% Prior: 1.50% | |
| 02:00 PM | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230