Market Update
US tsys trading slightly lower, off the intraday lows on heavy volume in TY futures (500k), little move in equities (S&P fut +2), US 10Y 2.38% (+1bp). US Q4 GDP revised lower to 2.2% from 2.6%, little reaction in tsys so far yet with a full rate cut priced by year end the weakness is arguably priced in. Bund yields unch, 10Y -0.085% , UK gilt yields 3-4bps lower, 10Y gilt/tsy spd 7bps tighter on the week – the Brexit process is in limbo after the UK parliament failed to approve any of the eight Brexit options being considered. Multiple Fed speakers including Quarles and Clarida.
News headlines
Treasuries Steady; Stocks Mixed as Dollar Advances: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The global bond rally showed signs of easing Thursday as Treasuries and German bunds stabilized. U.S. equity futures were steady alongside European stocks.
China makes unprecedented proposals on tech, trade talks progress – U.S. officials (Reuters) China has made unprecedented proposals in talks with the United States on a range of issues including forced technology transfer as the two sides work to overcome remaining obstacles to a deal to end their protracted trade war, U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday.
TSX futures edge higher amid trade optimism (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a slightly higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Thursday as U.S. and China made progress in trade talks, but gains were capped by persisting global growth concerns.
European shares rise on trade hopes, despite Brexit deadlock (Reuters) European shares rose on Thursday as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks helped investors look past worries over global growth and Britain’s chaotic effort to leave the European Union.
Oil Declines After Surprise Gain in U.S. Crude Inventories (Bloomberg) Oil fell for a second day after an unexpected jump in U.S. crude stockpiles unnerved a market already anxious about faltering global demand.
China’s canola ban adds to Trudeau’s woes in Huawei feud (BNN) China is ramping up pressure on Justin Trudeau in a feud that already had the Canadian prime minister facing few good options.
Lira liquidity hopes help Turkey dollar bonds recover some ground (Reuters) Turkey’s shorter-dated dollar-denominated sovereign bonds recovered some of their early losses on Thursday, with longer-dated bonds moving into positive territory.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.453% | 2 Year | 2.204% |
| 5 Year | 1.414% | 5 Year | 2.17% |
| 10 Year | 1.517% | 10 Year | 2.366% |
| 30 Year | 1.824% | 30 Year | 2.813% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | GDP Annualized QoQ, 4Q T Surv 2.3% Prior 2.6% |
| Personal Consumption, 4Q T Surv 2.6% Prior 2.8% | |
| GDP Price Index, 4Q T Surv 1.8% Prior 1.8% | |
| Core PCE QoQ, 4Q T Surv 1.7% Prior 1.7% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 23 Surv 220k Prior 221k | |
| Continuing Claims, Mar 16 Surv 1778k Prior 1750k | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Mar 24 Prior 61.5 |
| 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales MoM, Feb Surv -0.5% Prior 4.6% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230