Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys trading higher, curve flatter, 10Y 1.83% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures before  Nov CPI (0.2%/2.0% y/y exp) and FOMC this afternoon..  Earlier equity weakness has reversed with S&P futures +3.0. EGBs also pulling back after earlier strength as equities rebound. Gilts outperforming and GBP taking leg lower after latest YouGov poll shows narrower lead for Conservatives, who are still expected to form a majority. GOCs unch before CAP Util. data at 8:30. 5Y CMB expected to launch this morning , reopening of Dec 2024s (27/26 on screen).

News headlines

U.S. Futures Fluctuate Before Fed; Bonds Advance: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fluctuated with stocks before the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year and amid lingering uncertainty over the progress of trade negotiations between America and China. Treasuries advanced.

TSX futures inch higher as gold prices rise (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures edged up on Wednesday, boosted by higher gold prices as investors hedged against uncertainties around threats of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

Oil Falls From 12-Week High as Report Shows U.S. Stockpile Build (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from its highest close in almost three months after an industry report showed American crude inventories expanded last week, adding to signs that supplies will remain abundant next year.

Canada, Mexico, U.S. sign changes to new NAFTA (BNN) House Democrats embraced the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement after securing key revisions and announced plans to vote on the deal next week, putting President Donald Trump closer to a political win as he heads into the 2020 election.

Mexican businesses want clarity on details of USMCA trade deal (Reuters) After the initial euphoria had subsided, Mexican business leaders emerged bruised and resigned to a new stricter trade deal with the United States and Canada that could usher in more intrusive enforcement of labor rules in Mexico.

Focus squarely on Trump as Dec 15 tariffs loom in US-China trade war (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump has days to decide whether to impose tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods just weeks before Christmas, a move that could be unwelcome in both the United States and China.

Aramco IPO to help Saudi economy shift from oil: finance minister (Reuters) Saudi Aramco’s listing will boost the kingdom’s efforts to diversify from oil as the bulk of proceeds will be injected in domestic projects, while the global buzz surrounding the deal will help lure foreign capital, the finance minister said.

Exclusive: U.S. Army will fund rare earths plant for weapons development (Reuters) The U.S. Army plans to fund construction of rare earths processing facilities, part of an urgent push by Washington to secure domestic supply of the minerals used to make military weapons and electronics, according to a government document seen by Reuters.

What’s at stake for Britain’s economy in election? (Reuters) The two main parties in Britain’s election on Thursday offer contrasting plans on spending, tax, the role of the state, trade unions and Brexit.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.012% at 128-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 3139, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.92, Gold futures are up 0.14% at $1470.2, DXY is up 0.15% at 97.559, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7554.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.668%	2 Year	1.646%
5 Year	1.613%	5 Year	1.678%
10 Year	1.599%	10 Year	1.828%
30 Year	1.701%	30 Year	2.249%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec 6  Survey: —  Actual: 3.80% Prior: -9.20%
08:30 AM	CPI MoM, Nov  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.40%
	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Nov  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.20%
	CPI YoY, Nov  Survey: 2.00%  Prior: 1.80%
	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Nov  Survey: 2.30%  Prior: 2.30%
	CPI Core Index SA, Nov  Survey: 265.476 Prior: 265.011
	CPI Index NSA, Nov  Survey: 257.213  Prior: 257.346
	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, Nov  Survey: —  Prior: 0.90%
	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, Nov  Survey: —  Prior: 1.20%
02:00 PM	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), Dec 11  Survey: 1.75%  Prior: 1.75%
	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), Dec 11  Survey: 1.50%  Prior: 1.50%
	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, Dec 12  Survey: 1.55%  Prior: 1.55%
	Monthly Budget Statement, Nov  Survey: -$206.2b  Prior: -$100.5b

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Capacity Utilization Rate, 3Q  Survey: 82.10%  Prior: 83.30%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading higher, yields 1-2bps lower with the 10Y 1.805% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures (325k), prices moving higher as equities sell off, S&P futures -11.25.  Core EGBs lower led by 10Y gilts – UK election in focus with Boris Johnson taking a hit after NHS interview, despite weaker Oct GDP. GOCs underperforming tsys for a 2nd day, Can/US 10Y completely erasing Friday’s post jobs narrowing, back to the late Sep wides. Poloz scheduled to speak Thursday before the Empire Club of Canada.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Drop With Stocks; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures retreated alongside stocks in Europe on Tuesday as investors turned cautious in the countdown to major central bank meetings and a deadline for fresh American tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasuries gained with gold.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slide on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday as crude prices fell on slowing global demand outlook, while a looming U.S. tariff deadline on Chinese goods weighed on sentiment.

Oil Steady Near 12-Week High Amid Stockpile Drop, Trade Anxiety (Bloomberg) Oil was steady near a 12-week high in New York, supported by signs of falling American crude inventories yet capped by continuing salvos in the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Drowning in uncertainty: Trade questions slow investment, squeeze profits across U.S. (Reuters) From a denim plant in rural Georgia to a St. Paul, Minneapolis loudspeaker maker, nagging uncertainty over when President Donald Trump’s trade wars might end, if ever, is confounding many U.S. manufacturers.

‘Symmetric,’ now a Fedspeak staple, may point to endgame for U.S. framework debate (Reuters) After 14 conferences, a couple dozen research papers and presentations and some very dense math, the Federal Reserve’s hunt for a better way to reach its inflation target may boil down to a single word: symmetric.

U.S. trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter (Reuters) U.S. disruption of the global economic order reaches a major milestone on Tuesday as the World Trade Organization (WTO) loses its ability to intervene in trade wars, threatening the future of the Geneva-based body.

White House plans to sign trade deal changes with Mexico, Canada (BNN) President Donald Trump’s administration plans to sign off on adjustments to a free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, according to two officials, easing the path for a vote in the House of Representatives as soon as next week.

Trump fails to top Trudeau on jobs gains, despite rhetoric (BNN) Canada’s labour market may look weak against a blockbuster U.S. employment report on Friday but in fact both nations have added jobs at the same pace since President Donald Trump took office.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.157% at 129-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.35% at 3123.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.7, Gold futures are up 0.48% at $1471.9, DXY is down -0.08% at 97.564, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7548.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.661%	2 Year	1.603%
5 Year	1.596%	5 Year	1.641%
10 Year	1.581%	10 Year	1.803%
30 Year	1.694%	30 Year	2.236%

US Economic Data

06:00 AM	NFIB Small Business Optimism, Nov  Survey: 103.0  Actual: 104.7 Prior: 102.4
08:30 AM	Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q F  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: -0.30%
	Unit Labor Costs, 3Q F  Survey: 3.40%  Prior: 3.60%

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading higher as US equity futures are slightly lower, 10Y 1.82% (-1.5bps), low volume in TY futures (245k).  Event risk this week includes British election and Dec 15^th tariff deadline. Core EGBs also higher in quiet session, German export data came in better than expected for October. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields 3-5bps lower since Friday’s weak Nov jobs report (-72k) which showed the largest monthly loss since 2009 with the unemployment rate rising 0.4% to 5.9%. Yet overall job gains this year, at 285k, are still the highest in 17 years. Nov Housing Starts rose 201k last month, below the 215k forecast, while Building Permits fell 1.5% in Oct vs a 2.8% increase exp.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Edge Lower With Stocks as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged down alongside European stocks as investors prepared for a week brimming with potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to the looming America-China tariff deadline. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.

TSX futures dip on lower crude prices triggered by weak China data (Reuters) Stock futures are pointing to a lower open for Canada’s main stock index on Monday, as crude prices slipped on weak China export data.

Oil Slips as Trade Deal Impact Counters Surprise Saudi Cut (Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest close in almost 12 weeks as the effects of the U.S. and China trade war countered a surprise Saudi Arabian move to take additional crude barrels out of the market.

Swelling U.S. IPO backlog points to crowded 2020 field (Reuters) More and more companies are putting plans for U.S. initial public offerings (IPO) on ice this year because of investor pushback against their valuations, creating a backlog that could make stock market debuts more challenging in 2020.

China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon as possible (Reuters) China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible, amid intense discussions before fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are due to kick in at the end of the week.

Hong Kong braces for wave of store closures after protests: HKRMA (Reuters) More than one in 10 retailers in Hong Kong could close down in the next six months as social unrest and sometimes violent protests deter tourists, threatening the survival of smaller operators, the city’s main retailing group said on Monday.

EU regulators to review rules defining companies’ market power (Reuters) EU regulators will review two-decade old rules that determine if companies have the market power to throttle rivals or control prices to take into account globalization and digitalization, Europe’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said on Monday.

ETFs Are Nearing Record Inflows in Canada Amid ‘Blind Optimism’ (Bloomberg) With less than a month left, Canada’s ETF industry is heading for a blowout year with inflows poised for a record and assets crossing the C$200 billion ($151 billion) mark.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.085% at 129-00, S&P 500 futures are down -0.06% at 3144, Crude oil futures are down -1% at $58.61, Gold futures are up 0.25% at $1468.7, DXY is down -0.12% at 97.581, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.7546.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.647%	2 Year	1.615%
5 Year	1.579%	5 Year	1.656%
10 Year	1.565%	10 Year	1.823%
30 Year	1.67%	30 Year	2.261%

US Economic Data

There is no US economic data for today

Canadian Economic Data

08:15 AM	Housing Starts, Nov  Survey: 215.0k  Actual: 201.3k Prior: 202.0k
08:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Oct  Survey: 2.80% Actual: -1.50%  Prior: -6.50%
10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Dec 6  Survey: —  Prior: 54.8

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230