Commentaires

Market Update With the US mkt closed for holiday, risk off tone from Italian upheaval reflected in bid tone in German bunds, 10Y bund at a six-month low 0.35% (-4.5bps), 28bps lower in just the last ten days. Two year BTP/bund spd 48bps wider, Italy 2Y which yielded -0.32% two weeks ago, now 0.90%. Former Italian IMF official known for fiscal discipline, has been asked to form a new govt after the coalition govt collapsed. Crude oil lower for a fifth day, WTI fell below 66.00, three week low, on prospect of OPEC supply increase. GOCs sharply higher, 10Y 2.315%, ~20bps off the highs of last week 2.52%. 

News headlines

Poloz’s Holding Pattern on Canadian Rates Can’t Last Much Longer (Bloomberg) It’s no longer an issue of if, but when the Bank of Canada raises interest rates. Governor Stephen Poloz heads into a rate decision Wednesday where he’s expected to once again refrain from lifting borrowing costs, even as the economy shows signs of strength and is running up against capacity constraints. It’s a cautious stance driven by a wait-and-see approach to a long list of uncertainties — everything from Nafta to the housing market — rather than any concerns about fundamental economic momentum.

ECB Tests Flavor of Inflation as Big Policy Discussion Looms (Bloomberg) This isn’t the inflation the European Central Bank is looking for — but it is inflation. Figures this week are forecast to show euro-area consumer-price growth could have reached its fastest since early 2017 on the back of more expensive oil and a rebound in travel costs. The cost of crude and a weaker euro are also set to bolster a more significant set of numbers out in June — new ECB projections that will help policy makers determine whether the time has come to scale back asset purchases.

Italian Banks Lead Stock Declines After Government Plan Unravels (Bloomberg) Italian banks led European financial stocks lower as the growing likelihood of new elections shook investor confidence. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the habitually-volatile state-rescued bank, led declines with a drop of as much as 7.8 percent. The eight worst performers on the Bloomberg Europe Banks Index were all Italian lenders as of 12:07 p.m., with UniCredit SpA losing almost 4 percent and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA down about 3 percent.

U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Korea Hopes; Oil Slumps: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures followed Asian shares higher on signals an America-North Korea summit is back on track, but risk appetite waned in Europe as Italy’s political outlook darkened. The region’s stocks and common currency both surrendered gains. S&P 500 futures advanced, as did South Korean stocks, after President Donald Trump appeared to confirm that his June meeting with Kim Jong Un was back on. National gauges in Europe turned lower, led by Italy’s benchmark, as populist leaders pulled the plug on their attempt to form a government and the country lurched toward fresh elections. The nation’s bonds tumbled. Oil losses deepened after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they are discussing reviving output.

Canadian Pacific Railway union serves strike notice (Reuters) Union members representing Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd’s (CP) (CP.TO) conductors and locomotive engineers have served a notice to go on strike as early as May 29, according to a union statement released on Saturday. The strike notice comes a day after the union rejected the company’s latest contract offer. “After workers at CP voted to reject the last contract offers, the company is still refusing to negotiate seriously,” the statement said. CP is the country’s second-largest railroad.

Futures little changed amid a dip in oil prices (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a flat opening for Canada’s main stock index on Monday even as oil prices extended losses as Saudi Arabia and Russia said they may raise output. June futures on the S&P TSX index were down 0.03 percent at 7:15 a.m. ET. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX fell 37.95 points, or 0.24 percent, to 16,075.67 on Friday, its fourth straight decline, as a drop in oil prices weighed on the energy sector.

Oil slips below US$66 as Saudis, Russia hint at supply hike (BNN) Oil in New York headed for its longest run of losses in almost four months as Saudi Arabia and Russia said they are discussing raising output to ease consumer anxiety after prices jumped to levels last seen in 2014. West Texas Intermediate dropped as much as 3.1 per cent, while Brent crude futures traded above US$80 a barrel last week slumped near US$75 in London on Monday. Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled they’ll restore some of the output they cut as part of a deal between OPEC and its allies that took effect in January last year. Potential opposition from several producers could complicate the group’s effort to reach a consensus when it meets next month in Vienna.

Trudeau government says 2017 deficit is in line with projections (BNN) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government released interim results for the 2017 fiscal year that it says shows are “broadly” in line with its deficit projections. The shortfall for the fiscal year ended March 31 came in at $16.2 billion, the Canadian finance department said Friday in Ottawa. Department officials indicated the final numbers, to be released later this year, would be closer to the $19.4 billion deficit projection forecast by the government in its February budget.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.261% at 120-06, S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 2723, Crude oil futures are down -1.5% at $66.86, Gold futures are down -0.31% at $1304.9, DXY is up 0.07% at 94.318, CAD/USD is up 0.06% at 0.7702.

US Economic Data

There is no US economic data for today.

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update Tsys trading higher, 10Y 2.95% (-2.5bps), FTQ bid for a third day, yields at a two-week low as equities futures slide, widening in EU peripheral spreads (Ita/Ger 10Y +15 @ 202, Spain/Germ +13). Core Euro bonds  USD index rising since early NA trade close to Wednesday’s high 94.18.  WTI crude sharply lower, (WTI -1.60 @ 69.12) on OPEC news they are looking to boost supply by ending excessive cuts. GOCs opening higher, in line with tsys, the CAD at a two week low following the decline in crude. 

News headlines

Failed Trump-Kim Summit Is a Bitter Lesson for the White House (Bloomberg) A historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un — abruptly agreed to with little plan for how events would unfold — collapsed as the leaders talked past each other on their goals, phone calls weren’t returned and rhetoric turned from hopeful to sour.U.S. officials insist they’re optimistic the meeting will happen, eventually. And North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said Friday that his country remains willing to meet the U.S. any time.

Trump Levies Would Hit Other Asia Economies Harder Than China’s (Bloomberg) Other Asian economies would suffer more than China’s if Donald Trump does deliver on his threats to slap $150 billion of tariffs on shipments from the world’s biggest trading nation. That’s according to Bloomberg economists Fielding Chen and Tom Orlik, who estimate that for every 10 percent drop in China’s exports, the gross domestic product growth rate of Asian economies would fall 1.1 percentage points on average. China’s would decrease by just 0.3 percentage point.

Iran Wants Oil and Bank Pledges by June After U.S. Deal Exit (Bloomberg) Europe needs to come up with a package of economic guarantees by June to prevent the crisis triggered by Donald Trump’s nuclear deal withdrawal from escalating further, according to a top Iranian official. Iran expects oil exports to remain at current levels, continued access to international finance and the completion of contracts signed with European companies, according to the person, who asked not to be named in line with diplomatic protocol. The official spoke Friday in Vienna ahead of talks with Chinese, French, German, Russian and U.K. diplomats about the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the 2015 accord is formally known.

Stocks Steady as Korea Concerns Cool; Oil Falls: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks steadied after North Korea offered a measured response to President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a summit with that country’s leader, though politics in Europe damped the appetite for risk. The dollar edged higher with U.S. Treasuries, while crude oil extended a decline. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index pared gains, with Spain’s benchmark gauge tumbling as the prospect of a snap election increased. S&P equity-index futures fluctuated between gains and losses after Thursday’s decline in U.S. benchmarks. Core European bonds advanced, while Italy led peripheral debt lower as worries mounted over the leadership there and in Spain. WTI crude dropped below $70 a barrel after a Saudi minister said supply would likely be boosted in the second half.

Two men set off bomb in restaurant in Canada; 15 wounded (Reuters) Two unidentified men walked into a restaurant on Thursday in the Canadian city of Mississauga and set off a bomb, wounding more than a dozen people, local police said. The blast went off in the Bombay Bhel restaurant at about 10:30 p.m local time. Fifteen people were taken to hospital, three of them with critical injuries, the Peel Regional Paramedic Service said in a Tweet. The two male suspects fled after detonating their improvised explosive device, Peel Regional Police said in a Tweet. No one has claimed responsibility, and the motive for the attack was not known.

Canada PM raps possible U.S. auto tariffs, says linked to NAFTA (Reuters) A move by the United States to explore tariffs on auto imports is based on flimsy logic and is part of the pressure from Washington to renegotiate the NAFTA trade pact, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday. In an interview with Reuters, Trudeau said that while U.S. President Donald Trump had raised the idea of punitive measures, there was no guarantee they will happen. Trudeau also predicted talk of tariffs would likely disappear if slow-moving negotiations to update the North American Free Trade Agreement – currently stuck on autos issues – are successful.

IMF’s Lagarde tells Turkey to ensure central bank independence (BNN) International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged the Turkish government to preserve the independence of its central bank after confusion sent the lira sliding. Mixed signals about whether the central bank is free of political interference created a sense of uncertainty among investors, putting the currency under pressure, Lagarde said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in St. Petersburg.

Royal Bank: Canadian businesses borrowing to grow as commercial loan growth tops double digits (BNN) Rod Bolger, chief financial officer at RBC, tells BNN Bloomberg that commercial loan growth was up by double digits as business continue to invest in Canada and that the bank is seeing a strong consumer and healthy real estate market.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.157% at 119-22, S&P 500 futures are down -0.23% at 2721.25, Crude oil futures are down -2.26% at $69.11, Gold futures are down -0.05% at $1309.2, DXY is up 0.38% at 94.133, CAD/USD is up 0.57% at 0.7719. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic Data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update Tsys trading slightly higher, 10Y below 3.0% (2.992), prices rebounding as equity futures slide as ‘risk-on’ tone fades, heavy volume in TY1 on continued Jun/Sep roll.  USD index slightly lower, crude lower for a third day @ 70.93. Core EGBs higher, outperforming tsys, brief rally in Italian bonds after Italian govt formed, BTP/bund spd  @ 183.8 from earlier low 178.6 . GOCs lower, in line with tsys, rolls unch, 10s/30s narrowing after Dec 51 auction yest, 51/48 rl  -0.3/-0.4, post auction flows saw decent short cvoering of48s. Provincial spreads opening 0.5bps wider,  Ontario 48/27 curve  1bp flatter since end of April,  going into month end extension, all in yield pick up the narrowest it has ever been @ ~14.5bps. 

News headlines

Trump Threatens Allies With New Tariffs, Sowing Global Confusion (Bloomberg)  President Donald Trump’s push for tariffs on imported cars and trucks threatened a shake-up of the global auto industry while motivating nations including China and Germany to reiterate commitments of varying strength to free trade. The U.S. statement late Wednesday that it’s investigating auto imports on national security concerns drew pointed responses from Japan and South Korea — two nations that have been at pains to placate Trump — as well as Germany.

Carney And Dudley Urge Banks to Prepare for Move Away From Libor (Bloomberg)  Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Bill Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve of New York, urged the finance industry to prepare for the transition to new benchmark rates from scandal-ridden Libor. “Libor’s potential cessation after 2021 poses a clear risk to financial stability, and prudent risk management means that all of us must prepare for a world without Libor,” Dudley said at a conference in London. “This is a monumental and complicated effort — one that the industry has never undertaken — and it will entail overcoming many obstacles.”

Trump Says He Won’t Sign ‘Dreamers’ Bill Without Money for Wall (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said he won’t back any immigration bill out of Congress that doesn’t include both funding for a wall and increased border security, as some Republican lawmakers try to force a vote on a measure designed to shield young people from deportation. « Unless it includes a wall, and I mean a wall, a real wall, and unless it includes very strong border security, there’ll be no approvals from me, because I have to either approve it or not, » Trump said during an interview on the Fox News program “Fox & Friends.” « There is a mood right now to get better, stronger border security. »

Stocks Mixed as Trade Worries Linger; Euro Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Concerns surrounding global trade hung over markets on Thursday, with U.S. equity futures following Asian shares lower even as European stocks edged up. The yield on 10-year Treasuries stabilized around 3 percent, while the euro and pound gained. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index managed to claw back a little ground following Wednesday’s selloff, even as carmakers took a hit after President Donald Trump ordered a probe into automobile imports to the world’s biggest economy. That news also dragged the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower. Major American equity benchmarks were poised to slip at the open.

Canada blocks Chinese takeover of Aecon on security grounds (Reuters) Canada has blocked a proposed C$1.51 billion ($1.18 billion) takeover of construction company Aecon Group Inc (ARE.TO) by a unit of China Communications Construction Co Ltd (601800.SS) on national security grounds, the government said on Wednesday.

Unemployed Canadians’ struggle to find work getting worse: Survey (BNN) It’s becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed Canadians to find work. According to a survey by Express Employment Professionals, Canadians’ average duration of unemployment rose to 19 months – the highest level posted by the survey in five years. By comparison, in 2014 the average length of unemployment was 13 months.

Fed sees next hike soon, signals modest inflation overshoot OK (BNN) Federal Reserve officials said the economic outlook warranted another interest-rate hike “soon” and signaled they would welcome a modest overshoot of their 2 per cent inflation target, indicating they’re in no rush to tighten more aggressively. “Most participants judged that if incoming information broadly confirmed their current economic outlook, it would likely soon be appropriate for the committee to take another step in removing policy accommodation,” minutes released Wednesday of the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 1-2 meeting said.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.039% at 119-14, S&P 500 futures are down -0.1% at 2728, Crude oil futures are down -1.29% at $70.91, Gold futures are up 0.49% at $1301.2, DXY is down -0.21% at 93.808, CAD/USD is up 0.35% at 0.7763. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic Data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230