Commentaires
12/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading slightly lower, 10Y 1.80% (+0.5bps), avg volume in TY futures (300k) and narrow o/n range. ECB left marginal lending rate at 0.25% as exp, bond buying to continue, Christine Lagarde first press conference at 9:00ET. Core EGBs higher led by 10Y gilts on election day, pricing in risk of a minority Conservative govt, so called “hung parliament”. GOCs slightly higher in the short end, Can/US close to recent wides, retracing last Friday’s employment rally. Telus priced $900mln 2 part 10s & longs (158 & 230), bonds closing unch. This morning CHT prices 5Y deal in the area of 27 bps (now 26.5/26)
News headlines
U.S. Futures, Stocks Swing; Bonds Rise After ECB: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fluctuated alongside stocks in Europe on Thursday as investors digested the latest signals from some of the world’s major central banks. The euro held steady and bonds in the region climbed as European policy makers kept rates unchanged.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures up as oil prices rise (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were marginally higher on Thursday, as oil prices rose after OPEC forecast a supply deficit next year.
Oil Rebounds Though Outlook Remains Clouded by Oversupply (Bloomberg) Oil rebounded from the previous session’s loss, though the outlook remained clouded by rising U.S. stockpiles and concern that OPEC and its allies aren’t taking enough action to balance the market.
Lagarde’s ECB Keeps Policy on Hold as Strategy Review Looms (Bloomberg) The European Central Bank kept monetary stimulus unchanged at President Christine Lagarde’s first policy meeting, shifting the focus to when she’ll announce her review of the institution’s strategy for safeguarding the euro-zone economy.
Wall Street, Fed prep to avoid year end disruption in repo markets (Reuters) With memories of September’s historic spike in short-term funding costs still raw, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve are gearing up for another potential cash crunch at year end.
‘Black Swan’ index flashes yellow: Wall Street is not scared (Reuters) The options-based Black Swan index may be signaling surging demand from investors for protection against a stock market crash, but Wall Street analysts see little reason to panic.
Aramco shares closing price on Thursday put value slightly below $2 trillion (Reuters) Saudi Aramco’s (2222.SE) shares closed at 36.8 Saudi riyals on Thursday, putting the company’s market value slightly below $2 trillion.
China says in close communication with U.S. on trade as fresh tariffs loom (Reuters) China and the United States are in close communication on trade, its commerce ministry said on Thursday, declining to comment on possible retaliatory steps if Washington imposes more tariffs on Chinese goods this weekend.
WTO appeals judges to stay on to complete several decisions: WTO official (Reuters) World Trade Organization (WTO) judges will complete decisions on three pending appeals for which hearings have been held – despite the collapse of the Appellate Body earlier this week – a WTO official said on Thursday.
New Nafta Leaves Winners and Losers Across North America (Bloomberg) Companies, workers and lawmakers in three countries have spent the past year in limbo awaiting final touches on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement. Now they have a better sense of who won — and who lost.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.036% at 129-08, S&P 500 futures are down -0.09% at 3140.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.53% at $59.07, Gold futures are up 0.44% at $1481.5, DXY is up 0.03% at 97.161, CAD/USD is up 0.05% at 0.7588.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.658% | 2 Year | 1.603% |
| 5 Year | 1.595% | 5 Year | 1.635% |
| 10 Year | 1.582% | 10 Year | 1.795% |
| 30 Year | 1.68% | 30 Year | 2.233% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Nov Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.40% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Nov Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.30% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Nov Survey: 1.30% Prior: 1.10% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Nov Survey: 1.70% Prior: 1.60% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Dec 7 Survey: 214k Prior: 203k | |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 30 Survey: 1678k Prior: 1693k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec 8 Survey: — Prior: 61.7 |
| 12:00 PM | Household Change in Net Worth, 3Q Survey: — Prior: $1830b |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
11/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher, curve flatter, 10Y 1.83% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures before Nov CPI (0.2%/2.0% y/y exp) and FOMC this afternoon.. Earlier equity weakness has reversed with S&P futures +3.0. EGBs also pulling back after earlier strength as equities rebound. Gilts outperforming and GBP taking leg lower after latest YouGov poll shows narrower lead for Conservatives, who are still expected to form a majority. GOCs unch before CAP Util. data at 8:30. 5Y CMB expected to launch this morning , reopening of Dec 2024s (27/26 on screen).
News headlines
U.S. Futures Fluctuate Before Fed; Bonds Advance: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fluctuated with stocks before the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year and amid lingering uncertainty over the progress of trade negotiations between America and China. Treasuries advanced.
TSX futures inch higher as gold prices rise (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures edged up on Wednesday, boosted by higher gold prices as investors hedged against uncertainties around threats of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
Oil Falls From 12-Week High as Report Shows U.S. Stockpile Build (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from its highest close in almost three months after an industry report showed American crude inventories expanded last week, adding to signs that supplies will remain abundant next year.
Canada, Mexico, U.S. sign changes to new NAFTA (BNN) House Democrats embraced the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement after securing key revisions and announced plans to vote on the deal next week, putting President Donald Trump closer to a political win as he heads into the 2020 election.
Mexican businesses want clarity on details of USMCA trade deal (Reuters) After the initial euphoria had subsided, Mexican business leaders emerged bruised and resigned to a new stricter trade deal with the United States and Canada that could usher in more intrusive enforcement of labor rules in Mexico.
Focus squarely on Trump as Dec 15 tariffs loom in US-China trade war (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump has days to decide whether to impose tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods just weeks before Christmas, a move that could be unwelcome in both the United States and China.
Aramco IPO to help Saudi economy shift from oil: finance minister (Reuters) Saudi Aramco’s listing will boost the kingdom’s efforts to diversify from oil as the bulk of proceeds will be injected in domestic projects, while the global buzz surrounding the deal will help lure foreign capital, the finance minister said.
Exclusive: U.S. Army will fund rare earths plant for weapons development (Reuters) The U.S. Army plans to fund construction of rare earths processing facilities, part of an urgent push by Washington to secure domestic supply of the minerals used to make military weapons and electronics, according to a government document seen by Reuters.
What’s at stake for Britain’s economy in election? (Reuters) The two main parties in Britain’s election on Thursday offer contrasting plans on spending, tax, the role of the state, trade unions and Brexit.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.012% at 128-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 3139, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.92, Gold futures are up 0.14% at $1470.2, DXY is up 0.15% at 97.559, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7554.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.668% | 2 Year | 1.646% |
| 5 Year | 1.613% | 5 Year | 1.678% |
| 10 Year | 1.599% | 10 Year | 1.828% |
| 30 Year | 1.701% | 30 Year | 2.249% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec 6 Survey: — Actual: 3.80% Prior: -9.20% |
| 08:30 AM | CPI MoM, Nov Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.40% |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Nov Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.20% | |
| CPI YoY, Nov Survey: 2.00% Prior: 1.80% | |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Nov Survey: 2.30% Prior: 2.30% | |
| CPI Core Index SA, Nov Survey: 265.476 Prior: 265.011 | |
| CPI Index NSA, Nov Survey: 257.213 Prior: 257.346 | |
| Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, Nov Survey: — Prior: 0.90% | |
| Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, Nov Survey: — Prior: 1.20% | |
| 02:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), Dec 11 Survey: 1.75% Prior: 1.75% |
| FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), Dec 11 Survey: 1.50% Prior: 1.50% | |
| Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, Dec 12 Survey: 1.55% Prior: 1.55% | |
| Monthly Budget Statement, Nov Survey: -$206.2b Prior: -$100.5b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Capacity Utilization Rate, 3Q Survey: 82.10% Prior: 83.30% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
10/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher, yields 1-2bps lower with the 10Y 1.805% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures (325k), prices moving higher as equities sell off, S&P futures -11.25. Core EGBs lower led by 10Y gilts – UK election in focus with Boris Johnson taking a hit after NHS interview, despite weaker Oct GDP. GOCs underperforming tsys for a 2nd day, Can/US 10Y completely erasing Friday’s post jobs narrowing, back to the late Sep wides. Poloz scheduled to speak Thursday before the Empire Club of Canada.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Drop With Stocks; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures retreated alongside stocks in Europe on Tuesday as investors turned cautious in the countdown to major central bank meetings and a deadline for fresh American tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasuries gained with gold.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slide on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday as crude prices fell on slowing global demand outlook, while a looming U.S. tariff deadline on Chinese goods weighed on sentiment.
Oil Steady Near 12-Week High Amid Stockpile Drop, Trade Anxiety (Bloomberg) Oil was steady near a 12-week high in New York, supported by signs of falling American crude inventories yet capped by continuing salvos in the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Drowning in uncertainty: Trade questions slow investment, squeeze profits across U.S. (Reuters) From a denim plant in rural Georgia to a St. Paul, Minneapolis loudspeaker maker, nagging uncertainty over when President Donald Trump’s trade wars might end, if ever, is confounding many U.S. manufacturers.
‘Symmetric,’ now a Fedspeak staple, may point to endgame for U.S. framework debate (Reuters) After 14 conferences, a couple dozen research papers and presentations and some very dense math, the Federal Reserve’s hunt for a better way to reach its inflation target may boil down to a single word: symmetric.
U.S. trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter (Reuters) U.S. disruption of the global economic order reaches a major milestone on Tuesday as the World Trade Organization (WTO) loses its ability to intervene in trade wars, threatening the future of the Geneva-based body.
White House plans to sign trade deal changes with Mexico, Canada (BNN) President Donald Trump’s administration plans to sign off on adjustments to a free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, according to two officials, easing the path for a vote in the House of Representatives as soon as next week.
Trump fails to top Trudeau on jobs gains, despite rhetoric (BNN) Canada’s labour market may look weak against a blockbuster U.S. employment report on Friday but in fact both nations have added jobs at the same pace since President Donald Trump took office.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.157% at 129-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.35% at 3123.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.7, Gold futures are up 0.48% at $1471.9, DXY is down -0.08% at 97.564, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7548.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.661% | 2 Year | 1.603% |
| 5 Year | 1.596% | 5 Year | 1.641% |
| 10 Year | 1.581% | 10 Year | 1.803% |
| 30 Year | 1.694% | 30 Year | 2.236% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Nov Survey: 103.0 Actual: 104.7 Prior: 102.4 |
| 08:30 AM | Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q F Survey: -0.10% Prior: -0.30% |
| Unit Labor Costs, 3Q F Survey: 3.40% Prior: 3.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230