Commentaires
09/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher as US equity futures are slightly lower, 10Y 1.82% (-1.5bps), low volume in TY futures (245k). Event risk this week includes British election and Dec 15th tariff deadline. Core EGBs also higher in quiet session, German export data came in better than expected for October. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields 3-5bps lower since Friday’s weak Nov jobs report (-72k) which showed the largest monthly loss since 2009 with the unemployment rate rising 0.4% to 5.9%. Yet overall job gains this year, at 285k, are still the highest in 17 years. Nov Housing Starts rose 201k last month, below the 215k forecast, while Building Permits fell 1.5% in Oct vs a 2.8% increase exp.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Edge Lower With Stocks as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged down alongside European stocks as investors prepared for a week brimming with potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to the looming America-China tariff deadline. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.
TSX futures dip on lower crude prices triggered by weak China data (Reuters) Stock futures are pointing to a lower open for Canada’s main stock index on Monday, as crude prices slipped on weak China export data.
Oil Slips as Trade Deal Impact Counters Surprise Saudi Cut (Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest close in almost 12 weeks as the effects of the U.S. and China trade war countered a surprise Saudi Arabian move to take additional crude barrels out of the market.
Swelling U.S. IPO backlog points to crowded 2020 field (Reuters) More and more companies are putting plans for U.S. initial public offerings (IPO) on ice this year because of investor pushback against their valuations, creating a backlog that could make stock market debuts more challenging in 2020.
China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon as possible (Reuters) China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible, amid intense discussions before fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are due to kick in at the end of the week.
Hong Kong braces for wave of store closures after protests: HKRMA (Reuters) More than one in 10 retailers in Hong Kong could close down in the next six months as social unrest and sometimes violent protests deter tourists, threatening the survival of smaller operators, the city’s main retailing group said on Monday.
EU regulators to review rules defining companies’ market power (Reuters) EU regulators will review two-decade old rules that determine if companies have the market power to throttle rivals or control prices to take into account globalization and digitalization, Europe’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said on Monday.
ETFs Are Nearing Record Inflows in Canada Amid ‘Blind Optimism’ (Bloomberg) With less than a month left, Canada’s ETF industry is heading for a blowout year with inflows poised for a record and assets crossing the C$200 billion ($151 billion) mark.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.085% at 129-00, S&P 500 futures are down -0.06% at 3144, Crude oil futures are down -1% at $58.61, Gold futures are up 0.25% at $1468.7, DXY is down -0.12% at 97.581, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.7546.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.647% | 2 Year | 1.615% |
| 5 Year | 1.579% | 5 Year | 1.656% |
| 10 Year | 1.565% | 10 Year | 1.823% |
| 30 Year | 1.67% | 30 Year | 2.261% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Nov Survey: 215.0k Actual: 201.3k Prior: 202.0k |
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Oct Survey: 2.80% Actual: -1.50% Prior: -6.50% |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Dec 6 Survey: — Prior: 54.8 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
06/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher before US jobs data, 10Y 1.795% (-2bps), avg volume in TY futures (350k). UK gilts leading EGBs higher, IPSOS poll shows narrowing conservative lead over labour before tonite’s final Johnson/ Corbyn debate. US payrolls forecast at 180k last month vs 128k Oct, the resolution of the GM strike expected to add 50k to the total figure. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields across the curve close to late Oct/Nov highs. Cdn employment expected to have rebounded 10k in Nov after 1.8k decline in Oct. Wages in the spotlight as well after October’s strong 4.4% gain. BOC deputy Lane yesterday noted the domestic economy remains resilient despite the impact from trade wars, while economic growth was evolving as expected.
News headlines
Stocks Advance With Bonds Before U.S. Jobs Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks climbed alongside S&P 500 futures on Friday as investors counted down to U.S. jobs data and watched for any further developments ahead of the looming tariff deadline between America and China. Bonds also advanced.
TSX futures rise on trade optimism (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Friday, as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that trade talks with China were “moving right along” lifted investor sentiments.
Oil Near $58 as Traders Await Details on How OPEC+ Shares Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil traded near $58 a barrel as the market awaited crucial details on how OPEC+ will distribute cuts among its members.
Returning General Motors workers seen boosting U.S. November payrolls (Reuters) U.S. job growth likely accelerated in November as former striking workers returned to General Motors’ (GM.N) payrolls, which would confirm that the economy remained on a moderate expansion path despite a prolonged manufacturing slump.
Fed voters a less-hawkish bunch in 2020, lowering bar for U.S. rate cut (Reuters) The bar for cutting U.S. interest rates may get a little lower next year when a new crop of central bankers rotate into voting spots on the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting panel as part of its annual membership reshuffle.
Saudi, Russia win over oil producers to deeper cuts (Reuters) Saudi Arabia and Russia won backing for deeper output cuts from OPEC and allied oil producers on Friday as they look to head off global oversupply in 2020 and sustain prices.
China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybeans, pork in goodwill gesture (Reuters) In a positive gesture, China said on Friday that it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States, as the two sides try to thrash out a broader agreement to defuse their protracted trade war.
World Bank adopts $1 billion-plus annual China lending plan over U.S. objections (Reuters) The World Bank on Thursday adopted a plan to aid China with $1 billion to $1.5 billion in low-interest loans annually through June 2025, despite the objections of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Canada’s bankers face the bleakest bonus year in almost a decade (BNN) For Canadian bankers, 2019 shaped up to be the worst year for bonuses in close to a decade.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 129-10, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 3123.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.24% at $58.29, Gold futures are down -0.16% at $1480.7, DXY is up 0.02% at 97.433, CAD/USD is down 0% at 0.759.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.674% | 2 Year | 1.587% |
| 5 Year | 1.623% | 5 Year | 1.618% |
| 10 Year | 1.596% | 10 Year | 1.795% |
| 30 Year | 1.679% | 30 Year | 2.238% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov Survey: 180k Prior: 128k |
| Change in Private Payrolls, Nov Survey: 178k Prior: 131k | |
| Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Nov Survey: 40k Prior: -36k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Nov Survey: 3.60% Prior: 3.60% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Nov Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.20% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Nov Survey: 3.00% Prior: 3.00% | |
| Labor Force Participation Rate, Nov Survey: — Prior: 63.30% | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Oct F Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.20% |
| Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Oct Survey: — Prior: 0.00% | |
| U. of Mich. Sentiment, Dec P Survey: 97.0 Prior: 96.8 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Part Time Employment Change, Nov Survey: 15.0 Prior: 14.3 |
| Full Time Employment Change, Nov Survey: 10.0 Prior: -16.1 | |
| Net Change in Employment, Nov Survey: 10.0k Prior: -1.8k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Nov Survey: 5.50% Prior: 5.50% | |
| Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Nov Survey: 4.50% Prior: 4.40% | |
| Participation Rate, Nov Survey: 65.7 Prior: 65.7 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
05/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading weaker on avg volume (375k TY fut), 10Y 1.78%, US equity futures extending gains since early NA trading, S&P +10, Nasdaq +34. Crude higher for a 4th day, OPEC discussing extending cuts of 1.2mln bbls/day by more than 400k as well as extending the agreement from March to June. German bunds lower despite surprise decline in Oct factory orders (-0.4% vs 0.4% exp), the absolute level of orders close to the lowest since 2016. GOCs continuing underperformance vs tsys post hawkish BOC yest, Can/US 5-7bps wider. In the near term, resilience in consumption and business demand lessen the pressure for the BOC to offset concerns over trade, while lower longer term mortgage rates continue to support housing demand.
News headlines
U.S. Futures, Stocks Advance as Bonds Edge Lower: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures rose with European and Asian stocks on Thursday as investors maintained their fragile confidence that America could scrap a scheduled tariff hike on Chinese imports in 10 days. Bonds and the dollar edged lower.
TSX futures rise as oil prices gain (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Thursday, helped by gains in oil prices ahead of an OPEC meeting where members are expected to agree on increasing production cuts.
Oil Holds Gain as OPEC Ministers Gather for Vienna Meeting (Bloomberg) Oil held its biggest surge in more than two months as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna to discuss output cuts.
Gazing into the recession crystal ball (Reuters) The protracted trade war between China and the United States and a deteriorating global growth outlook have left investors nervous that the longest expansion in American history is at risk of ending.
Japan launches $122 billion stimulus to fight trade risks, post-Olympic slump (Reuters) Japan’s cabinet approved a $122 billion fiscal package on Thursday to support stalling growth in the world’s third-largest economy amid offshore risks and as policymakers look to sustain activity beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
China maintains tariffs must be reduced for phase one trade deal with U.S. (Reuters) Tariffs must be cut if China and the United States are to reach an interim agreement on trade, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, sticking to its stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a phase one deal.
World food prices surge in November, lifted by meat, vegetable oils: U.N. FAO (Reuters) World food prices rose strongly in November, lifted by big jumps in prices of meat and vegetable oils, despite slightly lower cereals prices, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.
Wall Street’s high-stake bets on calm less risky than they seem (Reuters) At a glance, a near-record accumulation of speculative bets on market tranquility looks like it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
CIBC quarterly profit misses estimates on higher loan loss provisions (Reuters) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) reported quarterly profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates on Thursday, hurt by higher provision for bad loans and slower growth at its domestic banking business.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.06% at 129-16, S&P 500 futures are up 0.26% at 3119, Crude oil futures are up 0.34% at $58.63, Gold futures are up 0.21% at $1483.3, DXY is down -0.18% at 97.474, CAD/USD is down -0.24% at 0.7593.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.638% | 2 Year | 1.568% |
| 5 Year | 1.579% | 5 Year | 1.595% |
| 10 Year | 1.556% | 10 Year | 1.771% |
| 30 Year | 1.635% | 30 Year | 2.223% |
US Economic Data
| 07:30 AM | Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Nov Survey: — Actual: -16.00% Prior: -33.50% |
| 08:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 30 Survey: 215k Actual: 203k Prior: 213k |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 23 Survey: 1660k Actual: 1693k Prior: 1640k | |
| Trade Balance, Oct Survey: -$48.5b Actual: -47.2b Prior: -$52.5b | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec 1 Survey: — Prior: 60.5 |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: -0.60% |
| Durable Goods Orders, Oct F Survey: 0.60% Prior: 0.60% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Oct F Survey: 0.60% Prior: 0.60% | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Oct F Survey: — Prior: 1.20% | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Oct F Survey: — Prior: 0.80% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Oct Survey: -1.45b Actual: -1.08b Prior: -0.98b |
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Nov Survey: — Prior: 48.2 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230