Comments
10/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher, yields 1-2bps lower with the 10Y 1.805% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures (325k), prices moving higher as equities sell off, S&P futures -11.25. Core EGBs lower led by 10Y gilts – UK election in focus with Boris Johnson taking a hit after NHS interview, despite weaker Oct GDP. GOCs underperforming tsys for a 2nd day, Can/US 10Y completely erasing Friday’s post jobs narrowing, back to the late Sep wides. Poloz scheduled to speak Thursday before the Empire Club of Canada.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Drop With Stocks; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures retreated alongside stocks in Europe on Tuesday as investors turned cautious in the countdown to major central bank meetings and a deadline for fresh American tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasuries gained with gold.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slide on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday as crude prices fell on slowing global demand outlook, while a looming U.S. tariff deadline on Chinese goods weighed on sentiment.
Oil Steady Near 12-Week High Amid Stockpile Drop, Trade Anxiety (Bloomberg) Oil was steady near a 12-week high in New York, supported by signs of falling American crude inventories yet capped by continuing salvos in the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Drowning in uncertainty: Trade questions slow investment, squeeze profits across U.S. (Reuters) From a denim plant in rural Georgia to a St. Paul, Minneapolis loudspeaker maker, nagging uncertainty over when President Donald Trump’s trade wars might end, if ever, is confounding many U.S. manufacturers.
‘Symmetric,’ now a Fedspeak staple, may point to endgame for U.S. framework debate (Reuters) After 14 conferences, a couple dozen research papers and presentations and some very dense math, the Federal Reserve’s hunt for a better way to reach its inflation target may boil down to a single word: symmetric.
U.S. trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter (Reuters) U.S. disruption of the global economic order reaches a major milestone on Tuesday as the World Trade Organization (WTO) loses its ability to intervene in trade wars, threatening the future of the Geneva-based body.
White House plans to sign trade deal changes with Mexico, Canada (BNN) President Donald Trump’s administration plans to sign off on adjustments to a free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, according to two officials, easing the path for a vote in the House of Representatives as soon as next week.
Trump fails to top Trudeau on jobs gains, despite rhetoric (BNN) Canada’s labour market may look weak against a blockbuster U.S. employment report on Friday but in fact both nations have added jobs at the same pace since President Donald Trump took office.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.157% at 129-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.35% at 3123.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.7, Gold futures are up 0.48% at $1471.9, DXY is down -0.08% at 97.564, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7548.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.661% | 2 Year | 1.603% |
| 5 Year | 1.596% | 5 Year | 1.641% |
| 10 Year | 1.581% | 10 Year | 1.803% |
| 30 Year | 1.694% | 30 Year | 2.236% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Nov Survey: 103.0 Actual: 104.7 Prior: 102.4 |
| 08:30 AM | Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q F Survey: -0.10% Prior: -0.30% |
| Unit Labor Costs, 3Q F Survey: 3.40% Prior: 3.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
09/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher as US equity futures are slightly lower, 10Y 1.82% (-1.5bps), low volume in TY futures (245k). Event risk this week includes British election and Dec 15th tariff deadline. Core EGBs also higher in quiet session, German export data came in better than expected for October. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields 3-5bps lower since Friday’s weak Nov jobs report (-72k) which showed the largest monthly loss since 2009 with the unemployment rate rising 0.4% to 5.9%. Yet overall job gains this year, at 285k, are still the highest in 17 years. Nov Housing Starts rose 201k last month, below the 215k forecast, while Building Permits fell 1.5% in Oct vs a 2.8% increase exp.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Edge Lower With Stocks as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged down alongside European stocks as investors prepared for a week brimming with potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to the looming America-China tariff deadline. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.
TSX futures dip on lower crude prices triggered by weak China data (Reuters) Stock futures are pointing to a lower open for Canada’s main stock index on Monday, as crude prices slipped on weak China export data.
Oil Slips as Trade Deal Impact Counters Surprise Saudi Cut (Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest close in almost 12 weeks as the effects of the U.S. and China trade war countered a surprise Saudi Arabian move to take additional crude barrels out of the market.
Swelling U.S. IPO backlog points to crowded 2020 field (Reuters) More and more companies are putting plans for U.S. initial public offerings (IPO) on ice this year because of investor pushback against their valuations, creating a backlog that could make stock market debuts more challenging in 2020.
China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon as possible (Reuters) China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible, amid intense discussions before fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are due to kick in at the end of the week.
Hong Kong braces for wave of store closures after protests: HKRMA (Reuters) More than one in 10 retailers in Hong Kong could close down in the next six months as social unrest and sometimes violent protests deter tourists, threatening the survival of smaller operators, the city’s main retailing group said on Monday.
EU regulators to review rules defining companies’ market power (Reuters) EU regulators will review two-decade old rules that determine if companies have the market power to throttle rivals or control prices to take into account globalization and digitalization, Europe’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said on Monday.
ETFs Are Nearing Record Inflows in Canada Amid ‘Blind Optimism’ (Bloomberg) With less than a month left, Canada’s ETF industry is heading for a blowout year with inflows poised for a record and assets crossing the C$200 billion ($151 billion) mark.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.085% at 129-00, S&P 500 futures are down -0.06% at 3144, Crude oil futures are down -1% at $58.61, Gold futures are up 0.25% at $1468.7, DXY is down -0.12% at 97.581, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.7546.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.647% | 2 Year | 1.615% |
| 5 Year | 1.579% | 5 Year | 1.656% |
| 10 Year | 1.565% | 10 Year | 1.823% |
| 30 Year | 1.67% | 30 Year | 2.261% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Nov Survey: 215.0k Actual: 201.3k Prior: 202.0k |
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Oct Survey: 2.80% Actual: -1.50% Prior: -6.50% |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Dec 6 Survey: — Prior: 54.8 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
06/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading weaker on avg volume (375k TY fut), 10Y 1.78%, US equity futures extending gains since early NA trading, S&P +10, Nasdaq +34. Crude higher for a 4th day, OPEC discussing extending cuts of 1.2mln bbls/day by more than 400k as well as extending the agreement from March to June. German bunds lower despite surprise decline in Oct factory orders (-0.4% vs 0.4% exp), the absolute level of orders close to the lowest since 2016. GOCs continuing underperformance vs tsys post hawkish BOC yest, Can/US 5-7bps wider. In the near term, resilience in consumption and business demand lessen the pressure for the BOC to offset concerns over trade, while lower longer term mortgage rates continue to support housing demand.
News headlines
U.S. Futures, Stocks Advance as Bonds Edge Lower: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures rose with European and Asian stocks on Thursday as investors maintained their fragile confidence that America could scrap a scheduled tariff hike on Chinese imports in 10 days. Bonds and the dollar edged lower.
TSX futures rise as oil prices gain (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Thursday, helped by gains in oil prices ahead of an OPEC meeting where members are expected to agree on increasing production cuts.
Oil Holds Gain as OPEC Ministers Gather for Vienna Meeting (Bloomberg) Oil held its biggest surge in more than two months as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna to discuss output cuts.
Gazing into the recession crystal ball (Reuters) The protracted trade war between China and the United States and a deteriorating global growth outlook have left investors nervous that the longest expansion in American history is at risk of ending.
Japan launches $122 billion stimulus to fight trade risks, post-Olympic slump (Reuters) Japan’s cabinet approved a $122 billion fiscal package on Thursday to support stalling growth in the world’s third-largest economy amid offshore risks and as policymakers look to sustain activity beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
China maintains tariffs must be reduced for phase one trade deal with U.S. (Reuters) Tariffs must be cut if China and the United States are to reach an interim agreement on trade, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, sticking to its stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a phase one deal.
World food prices surge in November, lifted by meat, vegetable oils: U.N. FAO (Reuters) World food prices rose strongly in November, lifted by big jumps in prices of meat and vegetable oils, despite slightly lower cereals prices, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.
Wall Street’s high-stake bets on calm less risky than they seem (Reuters) At a glance, a near-record accumulation of speculative bets on market tranquility looks like it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
CIBC quarterly profit misses estimates on higher loan loss provisions (Reuters) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) reported quarterly profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates on Thursday, hurt by higher provision for bad loans and slower growth at its domestic banking business.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.06% at 129-16, S&P 500 futures are up 0.26% at 3119, Crude oil futures are up 0.34% at $58.63, Gold futures are up 0.21% at $1483.3, DXY is down -0.18% at 97.474, CAD/USD is down -0.24% at 0.7593.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.638% | 2 Year | 1.568% |
| 5 Year | 1.579% | 5 Year | 1.595% |
| 10 Year | 1.556% | 10 Year | 1.771% |
| 30 Year | 1.635% | 30 Year | 2.223% |
US Economic Data
| 07:30 AM | Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Nov Survey: — Actual: -16.00% Prior: -33.50% |
| 08:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 30 Survey: 215k Actual: 203k Prior: 213k |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 23 Survey: 1660k Actual: 1693k Prior: 1640k | |
| Trade Balance, Oct Survey: -$48.5b Actual: -47.2b Prior: -$52.5b | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec 1 Survey: — Prior: 60.5 |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: -0.60% |
| Durable Goods Orders, Oct F Survey: 0.60% Prior: 0.60% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Oct F Survey: 0.60% Prior: 0.60% | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Oct F Survey: — Prior: 1.20% | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Oct F Survey: — Prior: 0.80% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Oct Survey: -1.45b Actual: -1.08b Prior: -0.98b |
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Nov Survey: — Prior: 48.2 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230