Commentaires
22/12/2017
We will be back on Monday January 8th.
News headlines
Congress Averts a Shutdown But Now Faces a Messy Start to 2018 (Bloomberg) The Republican-controlled Congress on Thursday night managed the bare minimum task of keeping the government open, yet made little progress on a medley of divisive fiscal and social issues it will now be forced to confront in January.
Catalan Separatists Win Majority of Seats, Not Votes: Chart (Bloomberg) It’s all about seats, not votes. Parties supporting Catalan independence from Spain won back control of the regional assembly, taking 70 of 135 seats after a record 82 percent turnout. Still, they got just 48 percent of votes, falling short of the majority that would boost their claims to a democratic mandate to break away from Spain.
Bitcoin Fights Back From $13,000 as Selloff Enters Fourth Day (Bloomberg) The world’s largest cryptocurrency sank as much as 21 percent, briefly trading below $13,000, before recovering to near $14,000 late in the European morning. Other cryptocurrencies also tumbled, with bitcoin cash crashing 31 percent and ethereum losing 20 percent over the past 24 hours, according to coinmarketcap.com
Catalan Vote Weighs on Stocks, Euro; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe struggled for traction and the euro declined after Catalan separatists won a regional election in Spain, news which offset solid growth data from two of the region’s big economies. U.S. equity futures and the dollar nudged higher, while Treasuries were steady.
Oil Set for First Weekly Gain Since November as Stockpiles Drop (Bloomberg) Front-month futures slid 0.5 percent in New York, trimming the weekly gain to 1.4 percent. Crude supplies slid last week to 436.5 million, the lowest level since October 2015, according to U.S. government data Wednesday. Output expanded at the smallest rate since starting a nine-week gain in mid-October. The North Sea’s Forties Pipeline System is set to return to normal flows early next year, according to a statement from operator Ineos Group
In Silicon Valley, much-feared tax bill pays dividends for workers (Reuters) The U.S. tax overhaul is a boon to Silicon Valley technology companies like Apple Inc AAPL.O and Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O, which will enjoy big tax cuts and the chance to bring back billions of dollars from overseas at a reduced rate.
U.S. Output Grew 3.2% in Third Quarter (Wall Street Journal) U.S. output grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the third quarter, the government said Thursday, a touch below a prior estimate but pointing to economic momentum ahead of a major tax cut.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.051% at 123-15, S&P 500 futures are up 0.08% at 2690, Crude oil futures are down -0.6% at $58.01, Gold futures are up 0.06% at $1271.4, DXY is up 0.13% at 93.395, CAD/USD is up 0.4% at 0.7819.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.639% | 2 Year | 1.891% |
| 5 Year | 1.837% | 5 Year | 2.251% |
| 10 Year | 2.017% | 10 Year | 2.487% |
| 30 Year | 2.251% | 30 Year | 2.846% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Personal Income, Nov est 0.4% (0.4% prior) |
| Personal Spending, Nov est 0.5% (0.3% prior) | |
| PCE Deflator MoM, Nov est 0.3% (0.1% prior) | |
| PCE Deflator YoY, Nov est 1.8% (1.6% prior) | |
| PCE Core MoM, Nov est 0.1% (0.2% prior) | |
| PCE Core YoY, Nov est 1.5% (1.4% prior) | |
| Durable Goods Orders, Nov est 2.0% (-0.8% prior) | |
| Durable Ex Transportation, Nov est 0.5% (0.9% prior) | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Nov est 0.5% (0.3% prior) | |
| 10 :00 AM | New Home Sales, Nov est 655k (685k prior) |
| New Home Sales MoM, Nov est -4.4% (6.2% prior) | |
| U. of Mich. Sentiment, Dec est 97.2 (96.8 prior) | |
| 11:00 AM | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Dec est 15 (16 prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | GDP MoM, Oct est 0.2% (0.2% prior) |
| GDP YoY, Oct est 3.5% (3.3% prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
21/12/2017
Market Update
Tsys trading higher before 8:30 data (Phil Fed, GDP), 10Y 2.48% (-1.6bps) after three day selloff. Current levels on TY near highs of overnite range on moderate volume (288k). Equities firmer (S&P fut +5.25), crude slightly weaker. Core EGBs lower, gilts trading lower led by 5-10Y sector, EU peripheral spreads at recent tights vs Germany before Catalan regional vote today. In Canada, GOCs lower & 1-2 bps wider vs tsys before CPI & retail sales. Provis opening unch after closing yest another 0.5bps tighter, Ont 48/27 curve trading below 10bps as longs outperform and despite continued narrowing in GOC 10s30s recently to ~25bps
News headlines
House Republican Leaders Push Bare-Bones Temporary Funding (Bloomberg) The House is set to vote on a bare-bones stopgap funding plan that would avert a government shutdown on Saturday and likely force the Senate to abandon attempts to add other provisions.
Ryan Pushes Trump to Follow Tax Win With U.S. Welfare Revamp (Bloomberg) Republicans want to channel momentum from the GOP’s victory on taxes into a push to overhaul the nation’s welfare programs, though some of President Donald Trump’s advisers prefer a less controversial infrastructure plan at the top of his agenda.
May’s Top Cabinet Ally Damian Green Quits After Porn Claims (Bloomberg) U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s effective deputy, Damian Green, resigned after an official investigation found that he’d made misleading statements about pornography on one of his parliamentary office computers, and left questions unanswered about his behavior toward a female activist.
Bonds Tumble, Equities Mixed as Tax Bill Passes: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. stocks fluctuated while Treasury yields climbed to a nine-month peak as the Republican tax overhaul passed its final vote before going to President Donald Trump for his signature.
What Catalonia’s Vote Can, and Can’t, Accomplish (Bloomberg) An election in Catalonia Dec. 21 gives voters another chance to express their view on whether the region should press ahead with its fight to break away or remain within Spain. The vote was called in October, when Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the Catalan government and dissolved the regional parliament in a bid to snuff out the secession movement. With ousted Regional President Carles Puigdemont in self-imposed exile in Brussels, the ballot may do little to settle the bitter division over Catalonia’s bid for independence — and Rajoy’s efforts to stop it.
Domestic wholesale trade data, oil lift Canadian dollar (Reuters) The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday after domestic data showed wholesale trade rose more than expected in October, which could bode well for economic growth at the start of the fourth quarter.
Trump administration sides with Boeing in Bombardier dispute (Reuters) The Trump administration on Wednesday recommended steep anti-subsidy duties on Bombardier Inc’s CSeries jets, setting up the next round of a fierce international trade dispute between the United States and Canada.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.076% at 123-18, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 2686.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.55% at $57.77, Gold futures are down -0.13% at $1268, DXY is up 0.14% at 93.443, CAD/USD is down -0.27% at 0.7812.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.639% | 2 Year | 1.853% |
| 5 Year | 1.822% | 5 Year | 2.232% |
| 10 Year | 2.002% | 10 Year | 2.486% |
| 30 Year | 2.253% | 30 Year | 2.866% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Dec est 21.0 (22.7 prior) |
| GDP Annualized QoQ, 3Q est 3.3% (3.3% prior) | |
| Personal Consumption, 3Q est 2.3% (2.3% prior) | |
| GDP Price Index, 3Q est 2.1% (2.1% prior) | |
| Core PCE QoQ, 3Q est 1.4% (1.4% prior) | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Dec 16th est 233k (225k prior) | |
| Continuing Claims, Dec 9th est 1898k (1886k prior) | |
| Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Nov est 0.50 (0.65 prior) | |
| 9:00 AM | FHFA House Price Index MoM, Oct est 0.4% (0.3% prior) |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec 17th (51.3 prior) |
| Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Dec (53.0 prior) | |
| 10:00 AM | Leading Index, Nov est 0.4% (1.2% prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | CPI NSA MoM, Nov est 0.2% (0.1% prior) |
| CPI YoY, Nov est 2.0% (1.4% prior) | |
| Consumer Price Index, Nov est 131.1 (130.9 prior) | |
| CPI Core – Common YoY%, Nov est 1.7% (1.6% prior) | |
| CPI Core – Trim YoY%, Nov (1.5% prior) | |
| CPI Core- Median YoY% (1.7% prior) | |
| Retail Sales MoM, Oct est 0.3% (0.1% prior) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Oct est 0.4% (0.3% prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
20/12/2017
Market Update
Tsys selloff continues on heavy volume, 10Y approaching 2.50% , eclipsing the intra day high from October 27th on US tax cut overhaul, with the Senate slated to vote on the bill later this morning. Core European bonds in catchup mode, 10Y bund 0.403% 9+3bps), gilts +5bps 1.25%. GOCs lower, underperforming tsys 2-3bps with the 10Y closing in on 2.0%. Provis trading up 0.5bp with all in yields 2-3bps higher, Ont 27s @57.5, Ont 48s @ 68.
News headlines
Senate Passes U.S. Tax Overhaul Putting Trump on Brink of Big Win (Bloomberg) Senate Republicans passed the most extensive rewrite of the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years, a bill that delivers a deep, permanent tax cut for corporations and shorter-term relief for individuals.
Congress Dives Into Shutdown Drama Hours After GOP Win on Taxes (Bloomberg) Congressional leaders are trying to to jam as many extras as possible into a must-pass spending bill that may end up ricocheting between the House and Senate right up to the deadline three days from now.
Uber Loses Bid to Lock Taxi Drivers Out of London License Appeal (Bloomberg) Uber Technologies Inc. lost a bid to prevent two unions representing taxi drivers from taking part in the appeal of Transport for London’s decision to ban the company from operating in the city.
Catalan Vote Lures Value Hunters Eyeing Spanish Stock Bounce (Bloomberg) For bargain hunters, it’s the catalyst that’s drawing them to Spanish shares. The IBEX 35 Index, having lost 8 percent since a May peak, is trading near its cheapest relative to the Euro Stoxx 50 Index in more than seven years. With elections in Catalonia on Thursday seen unlikely to give a clear majority to the separatist bloc demanding the region’s secession, bulls say it’s time to buy.
Europe Stocks Drop as Tax Vote Spurs S&P Futures: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe retreated on Wednesday after a mixed session in Asia, even as S&P 500 futures advanced as U.S. lawmakers moved closer to a tax overhaul. The dollar was little changed and Treasuries were steady, but core European bonds resumed a selloff.
Oil Prices in 2018: Once Again It’s All About U.S. Shale Output (Bloomberg) Crude oil production out of the U.S. is expected to hit record levels next year, buoyed in part by OPEC supply curbs that have put a floor under prices. For analysts forecasting prices next year, there are two key questions: exactly how far American production grows and whether the global economy is strong enough to swallow those extra barrels?
Canada home prices to cool in 2018 as rates rise, mortgage rules hit (Reuters) Canadian home prices are expected to cool significantly next year as tighter mortgage rules come into effect and as further expected interest rate hikes are likely to dampen a market that has been stoked by cheap borrowing, a Reuters poll found.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.038% at 123-21, S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 2692.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.38% at $57.78, Gold futures are up 0.4% at $1269.2, DXY is down -0.01% at 93.435, CAD/USD is down -0.23% at 0.7782.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.612% | 2 Year | 1.853% |
| 5 Year | 1.775% | 5 Year | 2.22% |
| 10 Year | 1.959% | 10 Year | 2.47% |
| 30 Year | 2.223% | 30 Year | 2.84% |
US Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec 15th -4.9% (-2.3% prior) |
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales, Nov est 5.53m (5.48m prior) |
| Existing Home Sales MoM, Nov est 0.9% (2.0%) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Oct 1.5% est 0.5% (-1.2% prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230