Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys trading higher close to session highs after ADP +190k as expected. Heavy volume in TY futures overnite (>480k) tsy curve steeper, 10Y 2.33(-2bps). FTQ bid on news Trump admin to recognize Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Equities weaker –  S&P futures -2.5, Europe -0.70%, crude at two week low 56.90 on API data showing build in gasoline inventories. Core EGBs higher led by 10Y gilts, curve 2bps flatter (narrowest in 14 months), 10Y gilt yield one month low 1.226%. Bunds lagging following uncovered 10Y reopening, stronger Oct factory orders. In Canada, focus on BOC decision at 10:00, GOCs unch, 10Y 1.89%. BOC expected to hold rates unch at 1.0% at this morning’s meeting – market pricing based on BA futures 16% hasn’t changed much since last Friday’s blowout jobs report. No MPR/press conference, statement expected to be slightly more hawkish than  in Oct, reflecting a tighter labor market in terms of both employment levels and wages which have surged from a low of 0.66% in April to a nineteen-month high of 2.80%.

News headlines 

Debt-Limit Tracker: What to Watch in Markets as Suspension Ends (Bloomberg) The three-month U.S. debt-ceiling reprieve is about to end, putting investors in Treasury bills and other short-term debt on notice. The September legislation that suspended the limit and funded the government is set to expire Dec. 8. House Republicans have a plan to pass a two-week extension to keep the government open. But lawmakers have yet to take it up as they focus on concluding an agreement to overhaul the tax system.

Theresa May Faces New Brexit Revolt From Boris Johnson (Bloomberg) Prime Minister Theresa May is facing a revolt from inside her Cabinet over her plan to keep U.K. regulations aligned with the European Union after Brexit, a split that threatens to undermine her chances of breaking the deadlock in negotiations.

Stocks Drop as Risk-Off Takes Hold; Bonds Advance: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) European shares followed their Asian counterparts lower as investors continued to lock in gains in the year’s better performing assets amid a broad risk-off mood. The dollar inched higher and Treasuries climbed as focus turns to efforts to avert a U.S. government shutdown on Saturday.

Oil Drops as Industry Data Show U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Grew (Bloomberg) Oil declined after industry data showed U.S. gasoline stockpiles expanded for the first time in four weeks. Futures dropped 1.3 percent in New York after rising 0.3 percent on Tuesday. Motor-fuel inventories climbed by 9.2 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. That would be the biggest gain since January 2016 if replicated in government data due later on Wednesday. Nationwide crude stockpiles declined, according to the API data.

As Selloff Hits Stocks, Some Investors Point to Jerusalem (Bloomberg) Investors watching the selloff that enveloped Asian markets Wednesday saw a host of reasons, ranging from profit-taking to the continued drop in technology stocks. But one matter was prominent for some commentators: U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to formally declare Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Condos a bright spot in recovering Toronto, Vancouver markets (Reuters) he market for condos and attached properties surged in Canada’s main real estate markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as buyer interest in expensive detached homes has withered, data showed on Tuesday.

Rogers considering sale of Blue Jays, Cogeco stake (Reuters) Canadian telecom company Rogers Communications Inc is looking to sell assets such as the baseball team Toronto Blue Jays and a stake in media company Cogeco Inc, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing Chief Financial Officer Tony Staffieri.

Hudson’s Bay reports worse-than-expected loss on lower retail sales (Reuters) Canadian department store Hudson’s Bay Co (HBC.TO) on Wednesday reported a wider-than expected quarterly loss as retail sales fell.

Retailer Dollarama reports third-quarter profit and sales up from year ago (CTV News) Dollarama Inc. says it earned $130.1 million in its third quarter, up from $110.1 million in the same quarter last year, boosted by higher sales. The company (TSX:DOL) says the profit amounted to $1.15 per diluted share, up from 92 cents per diluted share a year ago when the company had more shares outstanding.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.176% at 124-18, S&P 500 futures are down -0.1% at 2625.75, Crude oil futures are down -1.28% at $56.88, Gold futures are up 0.38% at $1269.7, DXY is down -0.04% at 93.342, CAD/USD is down -0.22% at 0.7899. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Quiet session overnite with tsy ten year futs trading at the low end of the range after selling since Europe on avg volume (>280k), 10Y 2.39% (+1.8bps). Gilts trading higher, led by longs on Brexit progress, weaker UK service PMI (53.8 in Nov from 55.6). GOCs lower in line with tsys, spds narrower vs tsys (~1bp) since Oct  trade deficit came in lower than exp. IGM Financial (A/AH+) in the mkt with $250mln (no grow) longs at 192, looks like a 2-3bps conc, should go quite well given exisiting longs trade closer to 185.

News headlines 

U.S. Stock Rally Fizzles as Tech Drops, Oil Slumps: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. stocks edged lower as selling in technology shares overwhelmed an advance by companies poised to benefit from proposed cuts to corporate taxes. The dollar strengthened and oil slumped.

Trump’s Stock Forecast Fails After Senate Tax Bill’s ‘Bombshell’ (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s prediction of “a very big day” for the stock market didn’t exactly hold true Monday, and tax experts say it’s probably because Senate Republicans unwittingly passed a bill that would mean higher-than-intended taxes for technology firms and other corporations.

Trump Lawyers Try to Take Obstruction Charges Off the Table (Bloomberg) Just six weeks ago, Donald Trump’s lawyers insisted they hadn’t spent much time researching whether laws on obstruction of justice apply to the president.  After the guilty plea by Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, the explanation shifted. Now, Trump’s legal team says it’s no longer a question of whether Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey could be considered obstruction of justice. They now say it’s impossible for the president to be charged with that crime at all.

Eleventh Hour Brexit Upset Sets New Deadline for Theresa May (Bloomberg) Theresa May came closer than ever on Monday to the Brexit deal she’s been working on for months. A last-minute upset over the Irish border left all parties embarrassed and doesn’t bode well for a second run at a breakthrough.

Euro-Area Growth Heads for Strong Finale in Year of Uncertainty (Bloomberg) Euro-area economic momentum accelerated to its fastest pace in over six years in November, setting the scene for a buoyant end to a year that saw political wobbling across much of the region.

U.S. Supreme Court Lets Trump’s Travel Ban Take Full Effect for Now (Bloomberg) A divided Supreme Court let President Donald Trump’s ban on travel to the U.S. from six mostly Muslim countries take full effect while legal challenges go forward, handing him a major victory and suggesting the court ultimately will uphold the restrictions.

Toronto home prices are down 8.8% since May, but the biggest decline in 17 years lures new buyers (Financial Post) Canada’s largest housing market continues to see prices fall amid a widening pool of homes for sale, though there are signs the correction is beginning to lure in some new buyers. The Toronto Real Estate Board’s benchmark home price index fell for the sixth consecutive month, down another 0.4 per cent from October. The index has fallen 8.8 per cent since May — the largest six-month decline in the history of data back to 2000. For the first time since 2009, the average price of a home sold in Toronto — at $761,757 in November — failed to surpass levels from a year earlier.

Canadian auto sales could hit 2 million in 2017: industry group (Reuters) Canadian auto sales dipped 1.2 percent in November from last year but could hit the two million milestone for the first time, according to data released by an automotive industry research firm.

Futures little changed as oil prices slip (Reuters) Canadian stock index futures were little changed on Tuesday amid a slight fall in oil prices and ahead of Canada’s international trade report for October.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.075% at 124-05, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 2643.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.56% at $57.15, Gold futures are down -0.11% at $1276.3, DXY is up 0.03% at 93.218, CAD/USD is down -0.24% at 0.7909. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Risk on rally after passage of US tax bill early Saturday, tsys lower yields ~3bps higher, on heavy volume in TY futures (530k), US 10Y 2.392 (+3bps). Equities higher – S&P fut  +15, Euro stoxx +1.2%. The USD is higher vs the euro, lower vs GBP, unch vs CAD. GBP higher, gilts lower and wider vs bunds/tsys  on speculation an agreement on Brexit talks has been achieved,  EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier  saying a ‘breakthrough is likely today’. GOCs lower in line with tsys, curve maintaining flatter bias from Friday’s blowout employment figures, 20% chance of rate hike this Wed. Provis trading up to start, Ont 27s @ 61, Ont 48s @71 – expectations of supply in both provis & corps given month end cpn flows.

News headlines 

Senate Passes Major Business, Individual Cuts: Tax Debate Update (Bloomberg) Senate Republicans narrowly approved the most sweeping rewrite of the U.S. tax code in three decades, slashing the corporate tax rate and providing temporary tax-rate cuts for most Americans. The 51-49 vote — achieved only after closed-door deal-making with dissident senators — brings the GOP close to delivering a much-needed policy win for their party and President Donald Trump. Trump has promised to sign tax-cut legislation before the end of 2017.

Congress Talks Tax Deal as Trump Signals Corporate Rate Retreat (Bloomberg) House and Senate lawmakers say they’ll begin working Monday on compromise tax-overhaul legislation — just a couple days after President Donald Trump introduced uncertainty over a provision that could mean a difference of about $200 billion over 10 years.

U.K. Fears Brexit Breakdown as May Takes Best Offer to Lunch (Bloomberg) Brexit talks risk being torpedoed by the taboo issue of the European Court of Justice, a senior British official said, as the U.K. downplayed expectations of a breakthrough when Prime Minister Theresa May meets European officials in Brussels on Monday.

CVS to Buy Aetna for $67.5 Billion, Remaking Health Care Sector (Bloomberg) CVS will pay $207 a share for Aetna, with $145 a share in cash and the rest in stock, the companies said in a statement Sunday. That’s a 29 percent premium to Aetna’s share price on Oct. 25, the day before the companies were reported to be in talks.

Dollar Rises With Yields on Tax Plan; Stocks Jump: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar made a strong start to the week, rising with Treasury yields and U.S. stock futures on the back of progress for the Republican tax-overhaul plan. European equities rebounded after Friday’s slump, though it was a mixed picture across Asian gauges.

Citi’s Bullish on Commodities While Warning of Risk in China (Bloomberg) Demand gains will be sustained through next year and in 2019, lifted by emerging markets as well as advanced economies, the bank said in a report. While there may be a slowdown in China, the top consumer of metals and energy and grains, stricter environmental standards and pressure to support bank balance sheets by eliminating overcapacity and curbing a glut could lead to tightness in some commodities, according to Citigroup.

Free trade talks with China will not yet begin (CBC) Canada will not begin formal free trade talks with China, at least not yet.  Prime Minister Trudeau met Monday with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. A joint statement indicating talks would begin had been widely expected.

BlackBerry loses payment dispute with Nokia, to pay $137 million (Reuters) An arbitration court ordered smartphone pioneer BlackBerry Ltd to pay $137 million to Nokia to settle a payment dispute and the Canadian company said it would pursue a separate patent infringement case against the Finnish firm.

Flynn pleads guilty, is cooperating in Trump-Russia probe (Associated Press)  Michael Flynn, the retired general who vigorously campaigned at Donald Trump’s side and then served as his first national security adviser, pleaded guilty Friday to lying to the FBI about reaching out to the Russians on Trump’s behalf and said members of the president’s inner circle were intimately involved with — and at times directing — his contacts.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.201% at 124-06, S&P 500 futures are up 0.52% at 2657.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.93% at $57.82, Gold futures are down -0.4% at $1277.2, DXY is up 0.23% at 93.101, CAD/USD is down -0.15% at 0.7895.

 US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230