Commentaires

Market Update

Risk on trade in mkts has tsys on the backfoot, more than reversing yesterday’s rally with the 10Y 2.355 (+3.5bps) after the US senate passed the budget vote paving the way for tax reform. S&P futures +4.75, crude lower as US inventories rose and news Iraq is working to restore oil flows from the Kirkuk region. GOCs outperforming tsys by 3-5 bps after both  August retail sales and Sep CPI disappointed with retail sales volumes  falling the most since March 2016. CPI rose to 1.6% due to higher gasoline prices which was expected. ex-gasoline CPI rose 1.1%

News headlines 

Trump Advisers Lean Toward Taylor or Powell for Fed (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s closest advisers are steering him toward choosing either Stanford economist John Taylor or Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell to be the next Fed chief, according to several people familiar with the process.

U.S. Senate Adopts Budget, Giving Momentum to Trump’s Tax-Cut Plans (Bloomberg) The Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept, a show of unity aimed at speeding consideration of President Donald Trump’s plan to enact tax cuts.

Abe’s Coalition May Lose Two-Thirds Majority, Poll Shows (Bloomberg)  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its two-thirds majority in Sunday’s general election, a Nikkei poll showed, potentially slowing the premier’s push to revise the nation’s pacifist constitution.

Shanghai Stocks Soar on City’s Free-Trade Port Plan (Bloomberg) Traders are snapping up stocks with Shanghai in their name after the city’s Communist Party chief confirmed plans to set up a free trade port that would aim to ease restrictions for incoming cargo.

Dollar, Stocks Get Lift From Tax Move; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)  The dollar climbed and Treasuries fell after the latest developments in Washington buoyed optimism about tax reform and odds rose that an insider may become the next Fed chief. European stocks edged higher on the back of rising metal prices and positive corporate earnings.

Merkel Settles the Brexit Game: Ball in Both EU and U.K. Courts (Bloomberg)  German Chancellor Angela Merkel — preoccupied with the aftermath of her own election, and the need to form a coalition — ignored the back and forth. But at a key summit in Brussels she took on the role of chair umpire.

Catalan Banks Say Business Normal After Calls to Pull Cash (Bloomberg) CaixaBank SA and Banco Sabadell SA said business was normal after Catalan separatists called on supporters to make cash withdrawals, singling out lenders that have moved their legal domiciles out of the region.

Canada finance minister says will adopt blind trust, divest assets (Reuters) Canada’s Finance Minister Bill Morneau said on Thursday he will place his assets in a blind trust and divest all his stock in a publicly traded family business, amid opposition allegations that these holdings put him in a conflict of interest.

UK business minister travels to Canada for talks on Bombardier deal (Reuters)  British Business Secretary Greg Clark will hold talks in Canada on Friday to discuss Airbus SE’s plans to buy a majority stake in Bombardier’s C-Series jetliner program aimed at helping it avoid high U.S. import tariffs.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.262% at 124-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 2565.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.55% at $51.01, Gold futures are down -0.41% at $1284.7, DXY is up 0.14% at 93.399, CAD/USD is up 0.57% at 0.7964. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher on FTQ bid, heavy volume in TY1 futs (~450k) , US 10Y 3.312 (-3.4bps). S&P futs down -11.25 or 0.45% (the largest premkt decline since August 29th), gold rebounding slightly, crude down 1.25%. No reaction to stronger PHiliTsys rose sharply at the start of European trading with bunds as Euro equities plunged in the face of the Spanish govt’s decision to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy and after weak earnings from Unilever (-5%) andThe 2Y bund/tsy spread hit its highest level since August 1999 earlier.  GOCs higher in line with tsys,provis opening unch as well.

News headlines 

Rajoy Deploys Ultimate Weapon of Law on Catalonia (Bloomberg) Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will deploy the Spanish government’s most wide-ranging constitutional powers for the first time in the country’s history as he seeks to land a decisive blow on the Catalan separatist movement.

Senate Begins Tax Debate by Elbowing Democrats on Perks for Rich (Bloomberg) Senate Republicans kicked off their tax debate Wednesday by killing two Democratic proposals that sought to draw a line against tax breaks for the wealthy.

U.K. Retail-Sales Growth Slumps to Weakest in Four Years (Bloomberg) U.K. retail sales fell more than forecast in September, leaving growth in the third quarter at its weakest in four years. Sales dropped 0.8 percent from August, far more than the 0.1 percent estimated in a Bloomberg survey. Over the third quarter, annual growth slowed to 1.5 percent, the worst performance since October 2013, according to data from the Office for National Statistics in London.

Hong Kong Stocks Tumble Most This Year as Geely, Developers Sink (Bloomberg) Hong Kong shares turned sharply lower in afternoon trading, led by some of the year’s best performers, as traders cited concerns ranging from the risks of Chinese deleveraging to a surge in the city’s interbank rates.

Stocks Drop as Investor Jitters Return; Euro Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The optimism that spurred U.S. stocks to yet another record on Wednesday was missing in action throughout Asia and Europe, with Hong Kong shares tumbling and European peers trading lower as Spain’s Catalan crisis deepened and corporate newsflow disappointed.

China reports 6.8% third-quarter GDP growth, meeting expectations (CNBC) The country’s National Bureau of Statistics said its third-quarter GDP growth was 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year, a day after President Xi Jinping made big promises for the country’s economic future during a pivotal leadership meeting.

Rogers quarterly profit more than doubles on wireless strength (BNN) Canadian telecom company Rogers Communications Inc (RCIb.TO) said on Thursday its third-quarter profit more than doubled as its wireless business kept firing on all cylinders and it sharply increased its full-year profit forecast

Caisse de depot changes investment strategy to address climate change (BNN) The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canada’s second-largest public pension plan, said it would increase investments in low-carbon assets by more than $8 billion over the next three years.

Thirty years ago this week, Wall Street slid into the abyss (Reuters) Thirty years ago, before heading to work at the New York Stock Exchange, Peter Kenny left his home in lower Manhattan and made a detour to the nearby Our Lady of Victory church to pray to St. Jude, the Roman Catholic patron saint of desperate and lost causes.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.212% at 125-13, S&P 500 futures are down -0.53% at 2546.5, Crude oil futures are down -1.52% at $51.25, Gold futures are up 0.33% at $1287.2, DXY is down -0.18% at 93.197, CAD/USD is up 0.04% at 0.8019. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys lower, yields 2-3bps higher, 10Y 2.33% (+3bps), equities higher (S&P fut +3.25), gold down for a third day, crude recovering from yesterday’s midday slide (52.06 +0.35%) after API data showed a large drop of 7.13mln bbls in crude oil inventories last week. Tsy futures hitting session lows after NY Fed Dudley said US economy looking ‘quite good’.  Core Euro bonds lower, following weakness in tsys and gilts , the latter pressured by data showing an uptick in UK wage growth for August . GOCs lower,  yet continuing steady outperformance vs tsys, another 1bp this morning, Can/US 10Y -30bps at one month lows. Provis better bid this morning, Ont 27s trading up @ 68bps, BC/Ont 48 -6.3/-6.8 unch. PSP Capital (AAA/Aaa) in the mkt reopening its Oct 2022 issue.

News headlines 

Xi Plans to Turn China Into a Leading Global Power by 2050 (Blomberg) President Xi Jinping warned of “severe” challenges while laying out a road map to turn China into a leading global power by 2050, as he kicked off a twice-a-decade party gathering expected to cement his influence into the next decade.

Senators Get Deal to Prop Up Obamacare, Keep Subsidies Trump Cut (Bloomberg) Senators in both political parties say they’ve reached agreement on fixes to stabilize Obamacare just two weeks before Americans start signing up for 2018 coverage.

Brexit Divisions Are Making Talks ‘Difficult’ for Europe (Bloomberg) European Union leaders and officials are finding Theresa May’s government a difficult negotiating partner, as splits inside the U.K. make it hard to know what they want.

U.K. Jobless Rate at 42-Year Low Amid Strong Labor Demand (Bloomberg) The U.K. jobless rate held at a 42-year low in the three months through August as Britain enjoyed near-record employment, according the figures published Wednesday.

Stocks Gain as Euro Slips; Dollar Pushes Higher: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The euro headed for its longest losing streak in almost a year as a deadline on Catalonia’s independence looms. Stocks in Europe advanced, while the dollar continued to strengthen helped by speculation that the next Federal Reserve chair will be more hawkish.

Wall Street Poised to Get a Key SEC Reprieve Over MiFID (Bloomberg) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to give Wall Street a reprieve by telling financial firms they won’t have to overhaul their operations to comply with sweeping new European rules governing investment research, said three people familiar with the matter

OSFI sets new mortgage rules, including stress test for uninsured borrowers (CBC) Canada’s top banking regulator has published the final version of its new mortgage rules, which include a requirement to « stress test » borrowers with uninsured loans to ensure they could withstand higher interest rates.

Veteran investor Marc Faber booted from 3rd company after racist comments (CBC) Veteran investor Marc Faber has resigned his board seats at three companies based in Canada on Tuesday following comments he made in his investment newsletter that America was better off because it was settled by white people instead of black people.

CP Rail beats third-quarter profit estimates on higher shipments (Reuters) Railroad operator Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP.TO) (CP.N) on Tuesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on higher shipments of crude oil, coal and potash and raised its full-year profit forecast.

Rio Tinto charged with fraud in US and fined in UK (Financial Times) Rio Tinto and two former senior executives were hit with fraud charges in the US, and the miner with a UK penalty, for allegedly trying to hide a multibillion-dollar business failure by inflating the value of coal assets in Mozambique.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.237% at 125-05, S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 2560.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.35% at $52.06, Gold futures are down -0.41% at $1280.9, DXY is up 0.24% at 93.713, CAD/USD is up 0.05% at 0.7982. 

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230