Commentaires
23/10/2017
Market Update
Risk on trade in mkts has tsys on the backfoot, more than reversing yesterday’s rally with the 10Y 2.355 (+3.5bps) after the US senate passed the budget vote paving the way for tax reform. S&P futures +4.75, crude lower as US inventories rose and news Iraq is working to restore oil flows from the Kirkuk region. GOCs outperforming tsys by 3-5 bps after both August retail sales and Sep CPI disappointed with retail sales volumes falling the most since March 2016. CPI rose to 1.6% due to higher gasoline prices which was expected. ex-gasoline CPI rose 1.1%
News headlines
Trump Advisers Lean Toward Taylor or Powell for Fed (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s closest advisers are steering him toward choosing either Stanford economist John Taylor or Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell to be the next Fed chief, according to several people familiar with the process.
U.S. Senate Adopts Budget, Giving Momentum to Trump’s Tax-Cut Plans (Bloomberg) The Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept, a show of unity aimed at speeding consideration of President Donald Trump’s plan to enact tax cuts.
Abe’s Coalition May Lose Two-Thirds Majority, Poll Shows (Bloomberg) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its two-thirds majority in Sunday’s general election, a Nikkei poll showed, potentially slowing the premier’s push to revise the nation’s pacifist constitution.
Shanghai Stocks Soar on City’s Free-Trade Port Plan (Bloomberg) Traders are snapping up stocks with Shanghai in their name after the city’s Communist Party chief confirmed plans to set up a free trade port that would aim to ease restrictions for incoming cargo.
Dollar, Stocks Get Lift From Tax Move; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar climbed and Treasuries fell after the latest developments in Washington buoyed optimism about tax reform and odds rose that an insider may become the next Fed chief. European stocks edged higher on the back of rising metal prices and positive corporate earnings.
Merkel Settles the Brexit Game: Ball in Both EU and U.K. Courts (Bloomberg) German Chancellor Angela Merkel — preoccupied with the aftermath of her own election, and the need to form a coalition — ignored the back and forth. But at a key summit in Brussels she took on the role of chair umpire.
Catalan Banks Say Business Normal After Calls to Pull Cash (Bloomberg) CaixaBank SA and Banco Sabadell SA said business was normal after Catalan separatists called on supporters to make cash withdrawals, singling out lenders that have moved their legal domiciles out of the region.
Canada finance minister says will adopt blind trust, divest assets (Reuters) Canada’s Finance Minister Bill Morneau said on Thursday he will place his assets in a blind trust and divest all his stock in a publicly traded family business, amid opposition allegations that these holdings put him in a conflict of interest.
UK business minister travels to Canada for talks on Bombardier deal (Reuters) British Business Secretary Greg Clark will hold talks in Canada on Friday to discuss Airbus SE’s plans to buy a majority stake in Bombardier’s C-Series jetliner program aimed at helping it avoid high U.S. import tariffs.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.262% at 124-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 2565.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.55% at $51.01, Gold futures are down -0.41% at $1284.7, DXY is up 0.14% at 93.399, CAD/USD is up 0.57% at 0.7964.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.451% | 2 Year | 1.564% |
| 5 Year | 1.686% | 5 Year | 2% |
| 10 Year | 2.016% | 10 Year | 2.366% |
| 30 Year | 2.356% | 30 Year | 2.882% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales, Sep est 5.3m (5.35m prior) |
| Existing Homes Sales MoM, Sep est -0.9% (-1.7% prior) | |
| 10/20-10/23 | Monthly Budget Statement, Sep est 6.0b (33.4b prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | CPI NSA MoM, Sep 0.2% est 0.3% (0.1% prior) |
| CPI YoY, Sep 1.6% est 1.7% (1.4% prior) | |
| Consumer Price Index, Sep 130.8 (130.5 prior) | |
| CPI Core – Common YoY%, Sep 1.5% (1.5% prior) | |
| CPI Core – Trim YoY%, Sep 1.5% (1.4% prior) | |
| CPI Core- Median YoY%, Sep 1.8% (1.7% prior) | |
| Retail Sales MoM, Aug -0.3% est 0.5% (0.4% prior) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Aug -0.7% est 0.3% (0.2% prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
20/10/2017
Market Update
Risk on trade in mkts has tsys on the backfoot, more than reversing yesterday’s rally with the 10Y 2.355 (+3.5bps) after the US senate passed the budget vote paving the way for tax reform. S&P futures +4.75, crude lower as US inventories rose and news Iraq is working to restore oil flows from the Kirkuk region. GOCs outperforming tsys by 3-5 bps after both August retail sales and Sep CPI disappointed with retail sales volumes falling the most since March 2016. CPI rose to 1.6% due to higher gasoline prices which was expected. ex-gasoline CPI rose 1.1%
News headlines
Trump Advisers Lean Toward Taylor or Powell for Fed (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s closest advisers are steering him toward choosing either Stanford economist John Taylor or Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell to be the next Fed chief, according to several people familiar with the process.
U.S. Senate Adopts Budget, Giving Momentum to Trump’s Tax-Cut Plans (Bloomberg) The Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept, a show of unity aimed at speeding consideration of President Donald Trump’s plan to enact tax cuts.
Abe’s Coalition May Lose Two-Thirds Majority, Poll Shows (Bloomberg) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its two-thirds majority in Sunday’s general election, a Nikkei poll showed, potentially slowing the premier’s push to revise the nation’s pacifist constitution.
Shanghai Stocks Soar on City’s Free-Trade Port Plan (Bloomberg) Traders are snapping up stocks with Shanghai in their name after the city’s Communist Party chief confirmed plans to set up a free trade port that would aim to ease restrictions for incoming cargo.
Dollar, Stocks Get Lift From Tax Move; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar climbed and Treasuries fell after the latest developments in Washington buoyed optimism about tax reform and odds rose that an insider may become the next Fed chief. European stocks edged higher on the back of rising metal prices and positive corporate earnings.
Merkel Settles the Brexit Game: Ball in Both EU and U.K. Courts (Bloomberg) German Chancellor Angela Merkel — preoccupied with the aftermath of her own election, and the need to form a coalition — ignored the back and forth. But at a key summit in Brussels she took on the role of chair umpire.
Catalan Banks Say Business Normal After Calls to Pull Cash (Bloomberg) CaixaBank SA and Banco Sabadell SA said business was normal after Catalan separatists called on supporters to make cash withdrawals, singling out lenders that have moved their legal domiciles out of the region.
Canada finance minister says will adopt blind trust, divest assets (Reuters) Canada’s Finance Minister Bill Morneau said on Thursday he will place his assets in a blind trust and divest all his stock in a publicly traded family business, amid opposition allegations that these holdings put him in a conflict of interest.
UK business minister travels to Canada for talks on Bombardier deal (Reuters) British Business Secretary Greg Clark will hold talks in Canada on Friday to discuss Airbus SE’s plans to buy a majority stake in Bombardier’s C-Series jetliner program aimed at helping it avoid high U.S. import tariffs.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.262% at 124-30, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 2565.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.55% at $51.01, Gold futures are down -0.41% at $1284.7, DXY is up 0.14% at 93.399, CAD/USD is up 0.57% at 0.7964.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.451% | 2 Year | 1.564% |
| 5 Year | 1.686% | 5 Year | 2% |
| 10 Year | 2.016% | 10 Year | 2.366% |
| 30 Year | 2.356% | 30 Year | 2.882% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales, Sep est 5.3m (5.35m prior) |
| Existing Homes Sales MoM, Sep est -0.9% (-1.7% prior) | |
| 10/20-10/23 | Monthly Budget Statement, Sep est 6.0b (33.4b prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | CPI NSA MoM, Sep 0.2% est 0.3% (0.1% prior) |
| CPI YoY, Sep 1.6% est 1.7% (1.4% prior) | |
| Consumer Price Index, Sep 130.8 (130.5 prior) | |
| CPI Core – Common YoY%, Sep 1.5% (1.5% prior) | |
| CPI Core – Trim YoY%, Sep 1.5% (1.4% prior) | |
| CPI Core- Median YoY%, Sep 1.8% (1.7% prior) | |
| Retail Sales MoM, Aug -0.3% est 0.5% (0.4% prior) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Aug -0.7% est 0.3% (0.2% prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
19/10/2017
Market Update
US tsys higher on FTQ bid, heavy volume in TY1 futs (~450k) , US 10Y 3.312 (-3.4bps). S&P futs down -11.25 or 0.45% (the largest premkt decline since August 29th), gold rebounding slightly, crude down 1.25%. No reaction to stronger PHiliTsys rose sharply at the start of European trading with bunds as Euro equities plunged in the face of the Spanish govt’s decision to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy and after weak earnings from Unilever (-5%) andThe 2Y bund/tsy spread hit its highest level since August 1999 earlier. GOCs higher in line with tsys,provis opening unch as well.
News headlines
Rajoy Deploys Ultimate Weapon of Law on Catalonia (Bloomberg) Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will deploy the Spanish government’s most wide-ranging constitutional powers for the first time in the country’s history as he seeks to land a decisive blow on the Catalan separatist movement.
Senate Begins Tax Debate by Elbowing Democrats on Perks for Rich (Bloomberg) Senate Republicans kicked off their tax debate Wednesday by killing two Democratic proposals that sought to draw a line against tax breaks for the wealthy.
U.K. Retail-Sales Growth Slumps to Weakest in Four Years (Bloomberg) U.K. retail sales fell more than forecast in September, leaving growth in the third quarter at its weakest in four years. Sales dropped 0.8 percent from August, far more than the 0.1 percent estimated in a Bloomberg survey. Over the third quarter, annual growth slowed to 1.5 percent, the worst performance since October 2013, according to data from the Office for National Statistics in London.
Hong Kong Stocks Tumble Most This Year as Geely, Developers Sink (Bloomberg) Hong Kong shares turned sharply lower in afternoon trading, led by some of the year’s best performers, as traders cited concerns ranging from the risks of Chinese deleveraging to a surge in the city’s interbank rates.
Stocks Drop as Investor Jitters Return; Euro Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The optimism that spurred U.S. stocks to yet another record on Wednesday was missing in action throughout Asia and Europe, with Hong Kong shares tumbling and European peers trading lower as Spain’s Catalan crisis deepened and corporate newsflow disappointed.
China reports 6.8% third-quarter GDP growth, meeting expectations (CNBC) The country’s National Bureau of Statistics said its third-quarter GDP growth was 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year, a day after President Xi Jinping made big promises for the country’s economic future during a pivotal leadership meeting.
Rogers quarterly profit more than doubles on wireless strength (BNN) Canadian telecom company Rogers Communications Inc (RCIb.TO) said on Thursday its third-quarter profit more than doubled as its wireless business kept firing on all cylinders and it sharply increased its full-year profit forecast
Caisse de depot changes investment strategy to address climate change (BNN) The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canada’s second-largest public pension plan, said it would increase investments in low-carbon assets by more than $8 billion over the next three years.
Thirty years ago this week, Wall Street slid into the abyss (Reuters) Thirty years ago, before heading to work at the New York Stock Exchange, Peter Kenny left his home in lower Manhattan and made a detour to the nearby Our Lady of Victory church to pray to St. Jude, the Roman Catholic patron saint of desperate and lost causes.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.212% at 125-13, S&P 500 futures are down -0.53% at 2546.5, Crude oil futures are down -1.52% at $51.25, Gold futures are up 0.33% at $1287.2, DXY is down -0.18% at 93.197, CAD/USD is up 0.04% at 0.8019.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.494% | 2 Year | 1.535% |
| 5 Year | 1.699% | 5 Year | 1.952% |
| 10 Year | 2.012% | 10 Year | 2.307% |
| 30 Year | 2.352% | 30 Year | 2.822% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims, Oct 14th 222k est 240k (243k prior) |
| Continuing Claims, Oct 7th 1888k est 1890k (1889k prior) | |
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Oct 27.9 est 22.0 (23.8 prior) | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct 15th (49.5 prior) |
| Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Oct (51.5 prior) | |
| 10:00 AM | Leading Index, Sep est 0.1% (0.4% prior) |
| 10/19 – 10/20 | Monthly Budget Statement, Sep est 6.0b (33.4b prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230