Commentaires
06/10/2017
Market Update
US tsys weaker before Sep payrolls release,10Y 2.365% (+1.6bps). Sep employment expected to have risen 80k after a 156k increase in August, the latest data distorted by hurricanes. Equities weaker (S&P fut -1.0), oil weaker. Tsys under pressure in Europe weighed by weaker bunds on stronger factory orders. GOCs lower, wider vs tsys before Sep jobs figures. Expectations are for a slowing in empl growth to 12k from 22k in Sep, wage growth likely to garner just as much attention given Poloz reference to capacity in his latest comments last week. Provincial spreads steady this week, Ontario curve flatter as tens outperform.
News headlines
Storms May Have Cut U.S. Hiring in Half Before Jobs Bounce Back (Bloomberg) While the U.S. job market’s solid run in 2017 was probably curbed last month by forces most economists couldn’t predict, any weakness is likely to be short-lived. The effects of two major hurricanes that inflicted potentially $90 billion in economic losses are expected to show up in September employment figures due Friday.
Tropical Storm Nate Blamed for 22 Deaths; Threatens US Coast (Bloomberg) Newly formed Tropical Storm Nate was blamed Thursday for at least 22 deaths in Central America as it dumped rain across the region on a path that would carry it toward a potential landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane over the weekend.
Deadly Storm Nate Shuts Oil Rigs on Track Toward Gulf Coast (Bloomberg) Tropical Storm Nate, which has already shut oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthened as it continued north on a path that’ll bring it ashore in the U.S. by week’s end.
May Faces Calls to Quit After Speech That Went Wrong (Bloomberg) U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is losing the confidence of her colleagues and should consider stepping down, a former minister suggested, after a key speech aimed at revitalizing her leadership descended into chaos.
Fed’s Williams Sees Need for Rate Hikes While Harker Eyes December (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said moderate growth and his outlook for higher inflation will allow the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates, while his counterpart in Philadelphia signaled he’s anticipating a hike in December.
As Trump turns his back on climate change, Canada’s clean-technology sector stands to gain (Toronto Star) Donald Trump makes no secret of the fact that he’s anything but an environmentalist. Where his regressive policies will lead is the subject of constant debate, but it stands to reason that they may cloud the future for Canada’s clean-technology sector.
Overnight markets
US 10yr note futures are down -0.087% at 125-02, S&P 500 futures are down -0.09% at 2547.75, Crude oil futures are down -1.46% at $50.05, Gold futures are down -0.19% at $1270.8, DXY is up 0.04% at 93.996, CAD/USD is up 0.06% at 0.7953.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.526% | 2 Year | 1.496% |
| 5 Year | 1.766% | 5 Year | 1.963% |
| 10 Year | 2.122% | 10 Year | 2.364% |
| 30 Year | 2.497% | 30 Year | 2.902% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Sep -33k est 80k (156k prior) |
| Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Sep -1k est 74k (165k prior) | |
| Unemployment Rate, Sep 4.2% est 4.4% (4.4% prior) | |
| Underemployment Rate, Sep 8.3% (8.6% prior) | |
| Labor Force Participation Rate, Sep 63.1% (62.9%) | |
| Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Sep 0.5% est 0.3% (0.1% prior) | |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Sep 2.9% est 2.5% (2.5% prior) | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Aug est 1.0% (1.0% prior) |
| Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Aug est0.0% (-0.1% prior) | |
| 15:00 PM | Consumer Credit, Aug est 15.540b (18.499b prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Net Change in Employment, Sep 106 est 12.0k (22.2k prior) |
| Unemployment Rate, Sep 6.2% est 6.2% (6.2% prior) | |
| Full Time Employment Change, 112 Sep (-88.1 prior) | |
| Part Time Employment Chage, -102 Sep (110.4 prior) | |
| Participation Rate, Sep 65.6 (65.7 prior) | |
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Sep est 56.0 (56.3 prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
05/10/2017
Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, curve flatter, US 10Y 2.325%, on below avg volume in TY futures (172k). Mkt awaits Fed Governor Powell speech at 9:10 and Friday payrolls data. Euro stocks slightly higher, crude below $50 on record high US exports last week. Core Euro bonds higher, 10Y bund/tsy spd hovering near three month low – ECB minutes from Sep 7 meeting offered little new insight. UK gilts higher, yields 2-3bps lower after PM May’s speech yest failed to inspire much confidence in her Brexit strategy amid reports 30 mps were plotting to remove her from office. In Canada, GOCs also biding time before Sep employment data tomorrow, 10Y 2.11%. Provincial spreads opening 0.5bps tighter this morning – talk of Ont/QC 10Y.
News headlines
Puerto Rico’s Benchmark Bond Falls to a Record Low (Bloomberg) Puerto Rico’s general-obligation bonds due in 2035 found a new low on Wednesday, falling to 32 cents on the dollar. The benchmark bond, one of its most actively traded securities over the past week, has been on the decline since Hurricane Maria slammed into the island last month and raised creditor concerns over debt recovery rates. President Donald Trump, who visited the territory on Tuesday, suggested the island’s debt will be wiped out to help it recover from the devastation.
Spain’s de Guindos Says Catalonia’s Independence Push Is Doomed (Bloomberg) Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos ruled out any sort of mediated talks with separatist leaders and said Catalan banks have signaled they may move out of the region if the push for independence continues.
Saudi King, Putin to Talk Oil Pact on ‘Epochal’ Russia Visit (Bloomberg) President Vladimir Putin began talks with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, who’s making a historic first visit to Russia by a monarch of the Gulf kingdom as the two energy superpowers seek an understanding on whether to extend an agreement curbing oil supplies.
TransCanada Announces Termination of Energy East Pipeline and Eastern Mainline Projects (Market Wired) “After careful review of changed circumstances, we will be informing the National Energy Board that we will no longer be proceeding with our Energy East and Eastern Mainline applications. TransCanada will also notify Quebec’s Ministère du Developpement durable, de l’Environnement, et Lutte contre les changements climatiques that it is withdrawing the Energy East project from the environmental review process.”
Montreal home prices rise as inventory falls 12% in September (BNN) The balance of power in Montreal’s housing market has tilted further in owners’ favour as listings dipped in September. The inventory of active listings of properties available for sale across the Montreal metropolitan area fell 12 per cent year-over-year in September, according to the city’s real estate board. Total property sales rose six per cent, led by growth in the condo and so-called « plex » market.
Shopify shares slide after company called ‘get-rich-quick scheme’ (The Star) Shopify Inc. tumbled as much as 10 per cent after Citron Research began shorting the stock, saying the Canadian e-commerce company’s claims that it’s minting millionaires should be investigated, and questioning its ability to scale up.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 125-11, S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% at 2539.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.16% at $50.06, Gold futures are up 0.31% at $1280.7, DXY is up 0.16% at 93.607, CAD/USD is up 0.15% at 0.8003.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.531% | 2 Year | 1.475% |
| 5 Year | 1.766% | 5 Year | 1.923% |
| 10 Year | 2.113% | 10 Year | 2.328% |
| 30 Year | 2.487% | 30 Year | 2.87% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims, Sep 30 260k est 265k (272k prior) |
| Continuing Claims, Sep 23 1938k est 1950k (1934k prior) | |
| Trade Balance, Aug -42.4b est -42.7b (-43.7b prior) | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct 1 (51.6 prior) |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders, Aug est 1.0% (-3.3% prior) |
| Factory Orders Ex Trans, Aug (0.5% prior) | |
| Durable Goods Order, Aug est 1.7% (1.7% prior) | |
| Durable Ex Transportation, Aug (0.2% prior) | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Auf (0.9% prior) | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Aug (0.7% prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Aug -3.41 est -2.6b (-3.04b prior) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
04/10/2017
Market Update
Tsys higher, yields 1-2bps lower, US 10Y 2.30 (-2bps). ADP employment rose 135k as expected last month. Fed Fischer said on BBG that low rates have been less successful than expected, while he still expects higher inflation. Trump close to picking Fed chair, with a short list of four candidates and Powell – a noted dove said to be favored. EGBs higher led by German bunds, bund futures at week highs as the 10Y part of the curve leads move higher after successful 10Y auction, risk-off as Spain widens further. In Canada, GOCs higher in line with tsys, curve maintain steeper bias since GDP/Poloz last week. The BOC auctions new 5Y bonds at noon, $3.9bln March 1 23s with the WI roll 1bp tighter 6.2/6.0 vs 7.0 yest , a big move considering the 5Y roll (Sep 22/Mar 22) is unch 3.9/3.8 and the June 23/5Y roll unch as well (7.8). Walt Disney in the mkt yest with a 7Y Maple @ 81, bonds unch on the break (guidance was 84 +/- 3)
News headlines
Trump Aides Deliver Him a Shortlist of Fed Candidates (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s advisers have given him a final list of people they’re recommending as candidates to lead the Federal Reserve and have ended the search, according to seven people familiar with the matter.
U.K. Services Growth Picks Up Though Warning Signs Cloud Outlook (Bloomberg) U.K. services activity unexpectedly accelerated in September and price pressures increased, according to a report by IHS Markit
Amazon Hit With $294 Million Bill in EU Tax Crackdown (Bloomberg) Amazon.com Inc. was hit by a European Union order to pay 250 million euros ($294 million) plus interest in back taxes to Luxembourg as the world’s biggest online retailer became the latest U.S. giant to fall foul of the bloc’s state-aid rules.
U.S. Stocks Add to Records as Treasuries Advance: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equities added to records as car sales boosted industrial shares, while Treasury yields turned lower and the dollar erased gains after touching a two-month high.
Toronto home sales fall again, prices down 15.5 percent from peak (Reuters) Toronto home sales plunged in September from a year earlier and prices were down 15.5 percent from their April peak, but sales and prices inched up from August, suggesting housing in Canada’s largest city may be stabilizing, data showed on Wednesday.
Canada growth to surpass potential output -BoC’s Leduc (Daily Mail) Canada’s economic growth is expected to decline over the next few quarters but continue to exceed the rate of potential output, a top official at the Bank of Canada said on Tuesday in a speech that added another dovish tone to the bank’s message.
Hurricane recovery helps boost U.S. September new auto sales (Reuters) Major automakers on Tuesday posted higher U.S. new vehicle sales in September as consumers in hurricane-hit parts of the country replaced flood-damaged cars, extending a rally in their shares that began when Hurricane Harvey hit southeast Texas in late August.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.199% at 125-19, S&P 500 futures are down -0.08% at 2530.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.26% at $50.29, Gold futures are up 0.71% at $1283.6, DXY is down -0.27% at 93.315, CAD/USD is down -0.22% at 0.8026
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.507% | 2 Year | 1.455% |
| 5 Year | 1.742% | 5 Year | 1.892% |
| 10 Year | 2.09% | 10 Year | 2.3% |
| 30 Year | 2.478% | 30 Year | 2.848% |
US Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Sep -0.4% (-0.5% prior) |
| 8:15 AM | ADP Employment Change, Sep 135k est 135K (237K prior) |
| 9:45 AM | Markit US Services PMI, Sep est 55.1 (55.1 prior) |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Sep (54.6 prior) | |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Sep est 55.5 (55.3 prior) |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Hugues Savard
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230