Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys trading slightly lower, 10Y 1.815%, TY futures drifting lower in narrow range on low volume (275k). Equity futures higher (S&P +7.75, Nasdaq +0.40%) despite Home Depot being down 4% pre-mkt after missing on revenues and cutting its full year forecast.  Core EGBs mixed, UK gilts slightly higher, bund yields 1bp higher.  Oct Housing Starts on tap in the US, yet mkts more sensitive to developments on the trade front.  Canadian data picks up with Sep Manufacturing Sales ahead of key CPI data tomorrow.  CMB 29 deal expected to price this morning in the area of 39.5 (old CMBs 38.5/38). Ontario announced plans to reopen its 2025 green bond in the near future

News headlines

U.S. Futures Advance With Stocks; Treasuries Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures advanced with stocks in Europe as investors kept an eye out for fresh signs of progress in America-China trade negotiations. Treasuries were steady.

TSX futures rise on hopes of U.S.-China trade deal (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures were higher on Tuesday, lifted by hopes that U.S. and China may end their trade war.

Oil Declines a Second Day on U.S. Supplies, Trade Deal Impasse (Bloomberg) Oil dropped for a second day on indications American crude stockpiles and shale output will keep expanding, while investors wait for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks.

Thousands of Canadian National Railway workers go on strike (Reuters) About 3,000 workers of Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), the country’s largest railroad operator, went on strike on Tuesday, labor union Teamsters Canada said after both parties failed to resolve contract issues.

Global economy dodges recession by narrowest of margins: Kemp (Reuters) The global economy may have narrowly avoided a recession, with most industrial and financial indicators pointing to a slight improvement in September-October after a sharp slowdown in the middle of the year.

Trump’s ‘Section 232’ autos tariff authority runs out of time, experts say (Reuters) The clock has run out on President Donald Trump’s authority to impose “Section 232” tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars and auto parts, and he may have to find other means if he wants to pursue tariffs on European or Japanese cars, legal experts say.

Japan lower house passes U.S. trade deal; auto tariffs still in question (Reuters) Japan’s lower house of parliament approved on Tuesday a limited trade deal Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed with the United States, clearing the way for tariff cuts next year on items including U.S. farm goods and Japanese machine tools.

Sustainable investors face squeeze as larger firms move in (Reuters) Specialized fund managers who pioneered green investing for decades are missing out on some of the spoils as the sector goes mainstream and large firms move in.

AFL-CIO’s Trumka says more work remains on U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal (Reuters) A major U.S. labor leader on Monday said there was more work to do on a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, pushing back against comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that a breakthrough was imminent.

Shares scale 22-month peak as focus turns to growth (Reuters) World shares touched their highest in nearly two years on Tuesday on predictions of future growth and bets the United States and China can end their damaging trade war.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.06% at 129-08, S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 3129, Crude oil futures are down -1.02% at $56.47, Gold futures are down -0.24% at $1468.3, DXY is up 0.03% at 97.821, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7568.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.549%	2 Year	1.604%
5 Year	1.488%	5 Year	1.639%
10 Year	1.489%	10 Year	1.815%
30 Year	1.621%	30 Year	2.296%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Housing Starts, Oct  Survey: 1320k Actual: 1314k  Prior: 1256k
	Building Permits, Oct  Survey: 1385k Actual: 1461k Prior: 1387k
	Housing Starts MoM, Oct  Survey: 5.10% Actual: 3.80% Prior: -9.40%
	Building Permits MoM, Oct  Survey: -0.40% Actual: 5.00% Prior: -2.70%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Manufacturing Sales MoM, Sep  Survey: -0.50%  Actual:-0.20% Prior: 0.80%
	Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM, Oct  Survey: —  Actual:-0.10%  Prior: 0.10%
	Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY, Oct  Survey: — Actual:1.00%  Prior: 0.70%
	Teranet/National Bank HP Index, Oct  Survey: — Actual:227.60 Prior: 227.72

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys moving higher as 10Y  1.82% (-1.5bps), volume in TY futures picking up after an avg o/n session (now 465k) as equities pullback from  record highs on rumours that China would delay talks on trade due to the impeachment hearings according to a tweet from CNBC, S&P futures -3 after being +10 ~8:00ET.     GOCs higher, lagging the rise in tsys, 10Y 1.47% (-0.5bps). Quiet on the data front today yet key CPI and Retail Sales later in the week.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Rise as Stocks Are Mixed; Pound Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures began the week with modest gains while share gauges across Europe and Asia were mixed as investors awaited fresh developments on global trade. The pound strengthened as the Conservative Party maintained its poll lead less than a month before elections.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures up on trade optimism (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Monday, getting a boost from rising optimism around a U.S.-China trade deal.

Oil Holds Near Eight-Week High on U.S.-China Trade Deal Optimism (Bloomberg) Oil held near the highest close in eight weeks on signs of progress in the prolonged U.S.-China trade war, which has weighed on the outlook for fuel demand.

Banks and funds lower red flags on supercharged stocks (Reuters) A raft of major banks and fund managers have upgraded their view on global equities, with emerging-market stocks their top pick to benefit from signs of easing in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute.

Parts with passports: how free trade drives GM’s engines (Reuters) Long before the pistons for General Motors Co V-6 engines reach the U.S. No. 1 automaker’s Romulus, Michigan plant, they are seasoned international travelers.

UK’s Johnson drops corporate tax cuts to fund spending as election nears (Reuters) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he was putting on hold further cuts in corporation tax and told voters he would pump the money into services such as health instead, addressing a central issue in the Dec. 12 election.

Nearly 20% of Japan households using e-money but cash still king (Reuters) Almost a fifth of Japanese households use electronic money for small purchases, a survey by a central bank-affilated research institute showed, up from a year ago and a sign the country’s cash-hoarding culture is changing.

The Case Is Only Growing for an Economic Forever War (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has become a bigger, broader economic forever war. It’s hard to look ahead and see any outcome that undermines that emerging reality. A “phase one” deal may be in what U.S. officials say is its messy end stages. But that deal, if it comes, will be partial and more ceasefire than game changer. It also doesn’t mean a larger peace is nigh.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.097% at 129-01, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 3124, Crude oil futures are down -0.47% at $57.45, Gold futures are down -0.67% at $1458.7, DXY is down -0.05% at 97.946, CAD/USD is down -0.01% at 0.7564.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.555%	2 Year	1.625%
5 Year	1.501%	5 Year	1.665%
10 Year	1.504%	10 Year	1.848%
30 Year	1.642%	30 Year	2.323%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM	NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov  Survey: 71.00  Prior: 71.00
04:00 PM	Net Long-term TIC Flows, Sep  Survey: —  Prior: -$41.1b
	Total Net TIC Flows, Sep  Survey: —  Prior: $70.5b

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Nov 15  Survey: —  Prior: 57.00

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsy yields 2-3bps higher, 10Y 1.835% (+1.5bps), on avg volume in TY futures (350k), risk on tone with US Commerce sec Ross saying a US-China trade deal will be reached ‘in all likelihood’, while Kudlow said deal is ‘coming down to short strokes’. Equity futures higher (S&P +7.5), crude -0.30%, the USD index unch. US October retail sales on tap, expected to have rebounded to 0.2% from -0.3% in Sep, due primarily to an ~8% increase in gas prices which were flat the previous month . GOCs lower and 1bp wider vs tsys, 10Y 1.485% (+2.5bps). Poloz speech last night notable as he referred to the strong growth in wages, above 4.0%, seeming to attribute more significance from the strong labor market data than GDP.

News headlines

U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher, Treasuries Decline: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures climbed with Asian stocks after a senior American official signaled progress on a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. European shares erased gains and Treasuries slipped.

TSX futures down on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Friday, pressured by a drop in oil prices over concerns of rising supplies next year.

Oil Heads for Weekly Loss on Signs of Adequate Global Supplies (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a weekly decline as rising U.S. crude inventories and new production elsewhere signaled that global markets will remain comfortably supplied.

Automakers around world await Trump tariff decision (Reuters) Automakers around the world are awaiting a decision from U.S. President Donald Trump on whether he will impose up to 25% tariffs on U.S. car and auto part imports after a 180-day review period elapsed this week.

U.S., China trade talks to continue Friday: U.S. commerce chief (Reuters) U.S.-China trade talks are set to continue with a telephone call on Friday as both sides seek to hammer out a phase one trade pact, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said, adding that progress was being made on the agreement’s details.

Kudlow says phase one China deal down to the ‘short strokes’ (BNN) White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said negotiations over the first phase of a trade agreement with China were coming down to the final stages, with the two sides in close contact.

Bank of Canada governor says technological change may call for neutral policy (Reuters) The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other new technologies may be boosting potential output in ways that could take years to show up in the data, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday.

Hong Kong expects first annual recession since financial crisis (BNN) Hong Kong revised down its estimate for economic growth this year as political unrest grips the city, with the government now forecasting the first annual contraction since the global financial crisis a decade ago.

U.S. trade groups raise alarm over Canadian digital services tax (Reuters) More than a dozen U.S. trade groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Friday urged the Trump administration to block a French-style digital services tax proposed by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during October’s election.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.169% at 129-04, S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 3104.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.21% at $56.65, Gold futures are down -0.51% at $1465.9, DXY is down -0.04% at 98.12, CAD/USD is down -0.07% at 0.7552.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.545%	2 Year	1.612%
5 Year	1.495%	5 Year	1.65%
10 Year	1.496%	10 Year	1.839%
30 Year	1.641%	30 Year	2.317%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Empire Manufacturing, Nov  Survey: 6.0  Prior: 4.0
	Import Price Index MoM, Oct  Survey: -0.20%  Prior: 0.20%
	Import Price Index YoY, Oct  Survey: -2.20%  Prior: -1.60%
	Export Price Index MoM, Oct  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: -0.20%
	Export Price Index YoY, Oct  Survey: —  Prior: -1.60%
	Retail Sales Advance MoM, Oct  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: -0.30%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Oct  Survey: 0.40%  Prior: -0.10%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Oct  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.00%
09:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Oct  Survey: -0.40%  Prior: -0.40%
	Capacity Utilization, Oct  Survey: 77.00%  Prior: 77.50%
10:00 AM	Business Inventories, Sep  Survey: 0.10%  Prior: 0.00%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Sep  Survey: —  Prior: 4.99b
09:00 AM	Existing Home Sales MoM, Oct  Survey: 1.30%  Prior: 0.60%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230