Commentaires
10/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher, yields 1-2bps lower with the 10Y 1.805% (-1.5bps), avg volume in TY futures (325k), prices moving higher as equities sell off, S&P futures -11.25. Core EGBs lower led by 10Y gilts – UK election in focus with Boris Johnson taking a hit after NHS interview, despite weaker Oct GDP. GOCs underperforming tsys for a 2nd day, Can/US 10Y completely erasing Friday’s post jobs narrowing, back to the late Sep wides. Poloz scheduled to speak Thursday before the Empire Club of Canada.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Drop With Stocks; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures retreated alongside stocks in Europe on Tuesday as investors turned cautious in the countdown to major central bank meetings and a deadline for fresh American tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasuries gained with gold.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slide on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday as crude prices fell on slowing global demand outlook, while a looming U.S. tariff deadline on Chinese goods weighed on sentiment.
Oil Steady Near 12-Week High Amid Stockpile Drop, Trade Anxiety (Bloomberg) Oil was steady near a 12-week high in New York, supported by signs of falling American crude inventories yet capped by continuing salvos in the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Drowning in uncertainty: Trade questions slow investment, squeeze profits across U.S. (Reuters) From a denim plant in rural Georgia to a St. Paul, Minneapolis loudspeaker maker, nagging uncertainty over when President Donald Trump’s trade wars might end, if ever, is confounding many U.S. manufacturers.
‘Symmetric,’ now a Fedspeak staple, may point to endgame for U.S. framework debate (Reuters) After 14 conferences, a couple dozen research papers and presentations and some very dense math, the Federal Reserve’s hunt for a better way to reach its inflation target may boil down to a single word: symmetric.
U.S. trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter (Reuters) U.S. disruption of the global economic order reaches a major milestone on Tuesday as the World Trade Organization (WTO) loses its ability to intervene in trade wars, threatening the future of the Geneva-based body.
White House plans to sign trade deal changes with Mexico, Canada (BNN) President Donald Trump’s administration plans to sign off on adjustments to a free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, according to two officials, easing the path for a vote in the House of Representatives as soon as next week.
Trump fails to top Trudeau on jobs gains, despite rhetoric (BNN) Canada’s labour market may look weak against a blockbuster U.S. employment report on Friday but in fact both nations have added jobs at the same pace since President Donald Trump took office.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.157% at 129-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.35% at 3123.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.54% at $58.7, Gold futures are up 0.48% at $1471.9, DXY is down -0.08% at 97.564, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7548.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.661% | 2 Year | 1.603% |
| 5 Year | 1.596% | 5 Year | 1.641% |
| 10 Year | 1.581% | 10 Year | 1.803% |
| 30 Year | 1.694% | 30 Year | 2.236% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Nov Survey: 103.0 Actual: 104.7 Prior: 102.4 |
| 08:30 AM | Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q F Survey: -0.10% Prior: -0.30% |
| Unit Labor Costs, 3Q F Survey: 3.40% Prior: 3.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
09/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher as US equity futures are slightly lower, 10Y 1.82% (-1.5bps), low volume in TY futures (245k). Event risk this week includes British election and Dec 15th tariff deadline. Core EGBs also higher in quiet session, German export data came in better than expected for October. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields 3-5bps lower since Friday’s weak Nov jobs report (-72k) which showed the largest monthly loss since 2009 with the unemployment rate rising 0.4% to 5.9%. Yet overall job gains this year, at 285k, are still the highest in 17 years. Nov Housing Starts rose 201k last month, below the 215k forecast, while Building Permits fell 1.5% in Oct vs a 2.8% increase exp.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Edge Lower With Stocks as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged down alongside European stocks as investors prepared for a week brimming with potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to the looming America-China tariff deadline. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.
TSX futures dip on lower crude prices triggered by weak China data (Reuters) Stock futures are pointing to a lower open for Canada’s main stock index on Monday, as crude prices slipped on weak China export data.
Oil Slips as Trade Deal Impact Counters Surprise Saudi Cut (Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest close in almost 12 weeks as the effects of the U.S. and China trade war countered a surprise Saudi Arabian move to take additional crude barrels out of the market.
Swelling U.S. IPO backlog points to crowded 2020 field (Reuters) More and more companies are putting plans for U.S. initial public offerings (IPO) on ice this year because of investor pushback against their valuations, creating a backlog that could make stock market debuts more challenging in 2020.
China says hopes it can reach trade agreement with U.S. as soon as possible (Reuters) China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible, amid intense discussions before fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are due to kick in at the end of the week.
Hong Kong braces for wave of store closures after protests: HKRMA (Reuters) More than one in 10 retailers in Hong Kong could close down in the next six months as social unrest and sometimes violent protests deter tourists, threatening the survival of smaller operators, the city’s main retailing group said on Monday.
EU regulators to review rules defining companies’ market power (Reuters) EU regulators will review two-decade old rules that determine if companies have the market power to throttle rivals or control prices to take into account globalization and digitalization, Europe’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said on Monday.
ETFs Are Nearing Record Inflows in Canada Amid ‘Blind Optimism’ (Bloomberg) With less than a month left, Canada’s ETF industry is heading for a blowout year with inflows poised for a record and assets crossing the C$200 billion ($151 billion) mark.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.085% at 129-00, S&P 500 futures are down -0.06% at 3144, Crude oil futures are down -1% at $58.61, Gold futures are up 0.25% at $1468.7, DXY is down -0.12% at 97.581, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.7546.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.647% | 2 Year | 1.615% |
| 5 Year | 1.579% | 5 Year | 1.656% |
| 10 Year | 1.565% | 10 Year | 1.823% |
| 30 Year | 1.67% | 30 Year | 2.261% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Nov Survey: 215.0k Actual: 201.3k Prior: 202.0k |
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Oct Survey: 2.80% Actual: -1.50% Prior: -6.50% |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Dec 6 Survey: — Prior: 54.8 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
06/12/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher before US jobs data, 10Y 1.795% (-2bps), avg volume in TY futures (350k). UK gilts leading EGBs higher, IPSOS poll shows narrowing conservative lead over labour before tonite’s final Johnson/ Corbyn debate. US payrolls forecast at 180k last month vs 128k Oct, the resolution of the GM strike expected to add 50k to the total figure. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, yields across the curve close to late Oct/Nov highs. Cdn employment expected to have rebounded 10k in Nov after 1.8k decline in Oct. Wages in the spotlight as well after October’s strong 4.4% gain. BOC deputy Lane yesterday noted the domestic economy remains resilient despite the impact from trade wars, while economic growth was evolving as expected.
News headlines
Stocks Advance With Bonds Before U.S. Jobs Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks climbed alongside S&P 500 futures on Friday as investors counted down to U.S. jobs data and watched for any further developments ahead of the looming tariff deadline between America and China. Bonds also advanced.
TSX futures rise on trade optimism (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Friday, as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that trade talks with China were “moving right along” lifted investor sentiments.
Oil Near $58 as Traders Await Details on How OPEC+ Shares Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil traded near $58 a barrel as the market awaited crucial details on how OPEC+ will distribute cuts among its members.
Returning General Motors workers seen boosting U.S. November payrolls (Reuters) U.S. job growth likely accelerated in November as former striking workers returned to General Motors’ (GM.N) payrolls, which would confirm that the economy remained on a moderate expansion path despite a prolonged manufacturing slump.
Fed voters a less-hawkish bunch in 2020, lowering bar for U.S. rate cut (Reuters) The bar for cutting U.S. interest rates may get a little lower next year when a new crop of central bankers rotate into voting spots on the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting panel as part of its annual membership reshuffle.
Saudi, Russia win over oil producers to deeper cuts (Reuters) Saudi Arabia and Russia won backing for deeper output cuts from OPEC and allied oil producers on Friday as they look to head off global oversupply in 2020 and sustain prices.
China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybeans, pork in goodwill gesture (Reuters) In a positive gesture, China said on Friday that it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States, as the two sides try to thrash out a broader agreement to defuse their protracted trade war.
World Bank adopts $1 billion-plus annual China lending plan over U.S. objections (Reuters) The World Bank on Thursday adopted a plan to aid China with $1 billion to $1.5 billion in low-interest loans annually through June 2025, despite the objections of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Canada’s bankers face the bleakest bonus year in almost a decade (BNN) For Canadian bankers, 2019 shaped up to be the worst year for bonuses in close to a decade.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 129-10, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 3123.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.24% at $58.29, Gold futures are down -0.16% at $1480.7, DXY is up 0.02% at 97.433, CAD/USD is down 0% at 0.759.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.674% | 2 Year | 1.587% |
| 5 Year | 1.623% | 5 Year | 1.618% |
| 10 Year | 1.596% | 10 Year | 1.795% |
| 30 Year | 1.679% | 30 Year | 2.238% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov Survey: 180k Prior: 128k |
| Change in Private Payrolls, Nov Survey: 178k Prior: 131k | |
| Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Nov Survey: 40k Prior: -36k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Nov Survey: 3.60% Prior: 3.60% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Nov Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.20% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Nov Survey: 3.00% Prior: 3.00% | |
| Labor Force Participation Rate, Nov Survey: — Prior: 63.30% | |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Oct F Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.20% |
| Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Oct Survey: — Prior: 0.00% | |
| U. of Mich. Sentiment, Dec P Survey: 97.0 Prior: 96.8 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Part Time Employment Change, Nov Survey: 15.0 Prior: 14.3 |
| Full Time Employment Change, Nov Survey: 10.0 Prior: -16.1 | |
| Net Change in Employment, Nov Survey: 10.0k Prior: -1.8k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Nov Survey: 5.50% Prior: 5.50% | |
| Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Nov Survey: 4.50% Prior: 4.40% | |
| Participation Rate, Nov Survey: 65.7 Prior: 65.7 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230