Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

Tsys higher on risk-off tied to US-China trade, heavy volume in TY futures  (600k), 10Y 1.845 (-4bps), tsy curve bull flattening for a 2^nd day, prices off session highs after China report it will allow imports of poultry from the US.  Core Euro bonds higher, lagging the rally in tsys by 2-3bps.  Powell scheduled for 10ET in front of House Budget Committee, other Fed speakers as well.  GOCs higher, in line with tsys, 10Y 1.51 (-4bps). Long Canada 2051 auction at noon.

News headlines

Stocks Struggle Amid Trade News, Mixed Growth Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged lower with stocks in Europe and shares were mixed in Asia as investors digested the latest economic data and trade developments. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.

TSX futures tick up on higher oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Thursday, buoyed by gains in oil prices following a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories and OPEC’s comment about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production in 2020.

Oil Rises on Signs of U.S. Supply Drop, OPEC’s Shale Outlook (Bloomberg) Oil rose for a second day after an industry report pointed to a drop in U.S. inventories, and as OPEC said it sees potential for a “sharp” slowdown in American shale output next year.

China’s economy continues to slow on weak investment and demand (BNN) The engines of China’s economy are spluttering, with exports falling, factory output slowing, investment growth at a record low and consumption coming off the boil.

China says holding ‘in-depth’ talks with U.S. on interim trade deal (Reuters) China and the United States are holding “in-depth” discussions on a first phase trade agreement, and cancelling tariffs is an important condition to reaching a deal, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday.

ECB rates close to bottoming out, hike would be a mistake: Villeroy (Reuters) European Central Bank interest rates are close to bottoming out but low rates must stay and raising them now, as advocated by some, would be a mistake, French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.

Germany dodges recession with unexpected third-quarter growth (BNN) Germany narrowly dodged what would have been its first recession in six years, putting a damper on speculation that the government will add fiscal stimulus any time soon.

Lebanon bank staff to strike until security plan agreed: union (Reuters) Lebanon’s bank staff union called on Thursday for employees to stay on strike until it receives details of a security plan, especially on how to deal with customers.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.133% at 129-02, S&P 500 futures are down -0.15% at 3090.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.86% at $57.61, Gold futures are up 0.33% at $1468.1, DXY is up 0.01% at 98.381, CAD/USD is up 0.12% at 0.7537.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.547%	2 Year	1.616%
5 Year	1.505%	5 Year	1.657%
10 Year	1.513%	10 Year	1.845%
30 Year	1.67%	30 Year	2.32%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	PPI Final Demand MoM, Oct  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: -0.30%
	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Oct  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: -0.30%
	PPI Final Demand YoY, Oct  Survey: 0.90%  Prior: 1.40%
	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Oct  Survey: 1.50%  Prior: 2.00%
	Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 9  Survey: 215k  Prior: 211k
	Continuing Claims, Nov 2  Survey: 1683k  Prior: 1689k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 10  Survey: —  Prior: 59.1
11:00 AM	DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, Nov 8  Survey: 1500k  Prior: 7929k
	DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories, Nov  Survey: -1250k  Prior: -2828k

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	New Housing Price Index MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.10%  Prior: 0.10%
	New Housing Price Index YoY, Sep  Survey: -0.20%  Prior: -0.30%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading mixed, short end yields slightly higher with the 10Y 1.94% (unch), curve 1bp flatter 2s30s, heavier volume in TY futures (498k).  US equity futures slightly higher, crude unch 57.00. Core EGBs mixed, UK gilts slightly lower, bunds mixed with the short end higher despite a much stronger ZEW expectations (-2.1 vs -13), the highest since May.  The UK DMO confirmed issuance will rise by  £5bln this FY to £126.8bln  Pres Trump speaks at noon at the Economic Club of NY. In Canada, GOCs are lower, 2bps wider vs tsys in the long end, short end outperforming. Last Friday’s jobs data was mixed, lower headline figure offset by accelerating in hourly wages (+4.4%).

News headlines

Stocks Rise Amid Trade-War Lull; Treasuries Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged higher on Tuesday as European and Asian stocks rose amid a lull in trade-war headlines and simmering tension in Hong Kong. Treasuries fluctuated after a long weekend.

Markets hope for positive signs from Trump trade speech (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to discuss the country’s trade policy at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, and the markets are likely to hang on every word.

Trump expected to delay auto tariffs as Europe invests in U.S. (BNN) The Trump administration may delay a decision on whether to slap tariffs on European automobiles after an intense lobbying campaign by German carmakers highlighted plans to shift global production to American suppliers, people familiar with the White House deliberations said.

OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 Without Deeper Supply Curbs (Bloomberg) With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures higher ahead of Trump’s trade speech (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Tuesday over hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump may signal progress on trade talks with China.

China will keep macro policies stable to achieve targets for 2019 (Reuters) China will use counter-cyclical adjustment measures more effectively and keep macro policies stable to ensure key economic targets for this year are achieved, state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Tuesday.

China to tighten liquidity risk management on smaller banks: regulator (Reuters) China’s banking and insurance regulator said on Tuesday it will tighten liquidity management for the country’s smaller banks and offer cross-region liquidity support for rural commercial banks if needed.

Explainer: What a roll-back of Trump tariffs on Chinese goods may look like (Reuters) The latest bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations to cool a 16-month-old trade war is whether President Donald Trump would roll back tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, and how soon.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.085% at 128-09, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 3088.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.46% at $57.12, Gold futures are down -0.21% at $1454, DXY is up 0.16% at 98.354, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.755.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.584%	2 Year	1.681%
5 Year	1.562%	5 Year	1.747%
10 Year	1.585%	10 Year	1.938%
30 Year	1.741%	30 Year	2.415%

US Economic Data

06:00 AM

NFIB Small Business Optimism, Oct Survey: 102.0  Actual: 102.4 Prior: 101.8

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading lower, 10Y 1.945% (+2.8bps), US stock futures little changed (S&P -3.5).  UK gilts lower, bunds unch- more optimism on trade pressuring EGBs, tsys. GOCs higher, 2bps tighter vs tsys after weaker Oct employment data (-1.8k vs 15k), thou hourly wages advanced to 4.4% from 4.2% in Sep.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Fluctuate as Stocks Slip; Bonds Mixed: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The risk-on mood that’s permeated global financial markets this week showed signs of easing as U.S. futures fluctuated and most European stocks slipped along with Asian equities. Treasuries swung from a gain to a loss after sliding on Thursday.

Futures little changed ahead of employment data (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Friday, ahead of key employment data due later in the day.

Oil Falls Amid Uncertainty Over Trade War and OPEC Supply Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil fell as traders awaited more concrete signs that the U.S. and China are resolving their trade dispute, and amid concerns that OPEC and its partners won’t deepen output curbs to prevent a glut.

Wall Street Weekahead: Small-cap shares poised to benefit from shift to value (Reuters) Beleaguered shares of small U.S. companies are set for a bump in performance as value stocks have risen, market analysts say, but small caps could quickly fade again with an economic setback.

China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday, sparking division among some advisers to President Donald Trump.

China’s top chip maker urges U.S. firms to help ease tensions (Reuters) The head of China’s top state-run semiconductor maker, Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd, called on U.S. companies to “do better” in efforts to overcome China-U.S. tech tensions given they continue to profit from the Chinese market.

China’s trade data show brighter exports, weak domestic demand (BNN) China’s exports declined less than expected in October as optimism rose about an interim trade deal with the U.S., while imports contracted for a sixth straight month.

Revisions paint brighter picture of Canadian economic expansion (BNN) Canada’s economic expansion was slightly more robust than initially estimated over the past two years, annual revisions show.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.134% at 128-07, S&P 500 futures are down -0.07% at 3083.75, Crude oil futures are down -1.33% at $56.39, Gold futures are down -0.5% at $1459.1, DXY is up 0.15% at 98.292, CAD/USD is up 0.17% at 0.7577.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.633%	2 Year	1.684%
5 Year	1.613%	5 Year	1.754%
10 Year	1.625%	10 Year	1.942%
30 Year	1.752%	30 Year	2.414%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories MoM, Sep F  Survey: -0.30%  Prior: -0.30%
	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.00%
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Nov P  Survey: 95.5  Prior: 95.5
	U. of Mich. Current Conditions, Nov P  Survey: 113.5  Prior: 113.2
	U. of Mich. Expectations, Nov P  Survey: 85.0  Prior: 84.2

Canadian Economic Data

08:15 AM	Housing Starts, Oct  Survey: 220.0k Actual: 202.0k Prior: 221.2k
08:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Sep  Survey: -2.00% Actual: -6.5%  Prior: 6.10%
	Net Change in Employment, Oct  Survey: 15.0k Actual: -1.8k  Prior: 53.7k
	Unemployment Rate, Oct  Survey: 5.50% Actual: 5.50% Prior: 5.50%
	Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Oct Survey: 4.2% Actual: 4.4% Prior: 4.3%
	Full Time Employment Change, Oct  Survey: 2.5 Actual: -16.1 Prior: 70.0
	Part Time Employment Change, Oct  Survey: 12.5 Actual: 14.3  Prior: -16.3
	Participation Rate, Oct  Survey: 65.7 Actual: 65.7 Prior: 65.7

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230