Commentaires
29/11/2019
Market Update
US tsy yields slightly higher, 10Y 1.77%, heavier volume in TY futures due to ongoing roll (485k), S&P futures -6.0. Bunds/gilts higher, gilts rallying with the long end outperforming curve 3bps flatter. GOCs outperforming US by 1-2bps before Q3 GDP (1.3% exp). With BOC next week, GDP figures likely to figure prominently in decision. Recent CPI, retail sales and manufacturing sales were all in line or stronger (retail sales on a quarterly basis) suggesting GDP would need to come materially weaker to move the needle for a rate cut next week (~5% priced in)
News headlines
U.S. Futures Slip as Stocks Struggle; Bonds Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fell with stocks in Asia while European shares struggled for traction, signaling a lackluster finale to the third straight month of gains for major global benchmarks. The dollar was steady.
TSX futures lower ahead of GDP data (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index inched lower on Friday, ahead of the country’s gross domestic product data due later in the day.
Oil Set for Fourth Weekly Advance Ahead of Key OPEC+ Meeting (Bloomberg) Oil is heading for a fourth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since April, before a key OPEC+ meeting next week that will set the path for future production cuts.
U.S. shoppers stay away from stores, spend online as Black Friday begins (Reuters) U.S. consumers splurged more than $2 billion online in the first hours of Thanksgiving shopping on Thursday, while crowds were largely thin at retailers on the eve of Black Friday, reflecting the broader trend away from shopping at brick-and-mortar stores.
Explainer: What’s at stake in Macron’s reform of France’s cherished pensions? (Reuters) France is bracing for nationwide public sector strikes on Dec. 5 against President Emmanuel Macron’s drive to overhaul the country’s unwieldy and costly pension system.
Italy and Germany vie for ECB’s money-printing press: sources (Reuters) The German and Italian appointees to the European Central Bank’s board are vying for control of the ECB’s market operations, a key position that involves running its vast money-printing program, two sources told Reuters.
Sterling range-bound until election; two-week volatility jumps (Reuters) The pound hovered around $1.29 on Friday, showing little reaction to political headlines, with analysts expecting little movement in the run-up to the UK general election on Dec. 12.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.06% at 129-13, S&P 500 futures are down -0.19% at 3147.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.05% at $58.08, Gold futures are down -0.07% at $1459.8, DXY is up 0.12% at 98.488, CAD/USD is up 0.17% at 0.7516.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.589% | 2 Year | 1.628% |
| 5 Year | 1.496% | 5 Year | 1.631% |
| 10 Year | 1.452% | 10 Year | 1.769% |
| 30 Year | 1.56% | 30 Year | 2.19% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today.
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Quarterly GDP Annualized, 3Q Survey: 1.30% Actual: 1.30% Prior: 3.70% |
| GDP MoM, Sep Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.10% Prior: 0.10% | |
| GDP YoY, Sep Survey: 1.40% Actual: 1.60% Prior: 1.30% | |
| Industrial Product Price MoM, Oct Survey: 0.00% Actual: 0.10% Prior: -0.10% | |
| Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Oct Survey: -2.00% Actual: -1.90% Prior: 0.00% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
27/11/2019
Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, yields 0.5bps higher in 10s, 10Y 1.745%, avg volume in TY futures (390k), S&P futures +3.25, crude unch 58.45. Full data slate in the US before Thanksgiving holiday including Q3 GDP, claims and durable goods at 8:30ET. Core Euro bonds mostly flat, attention turns to YouGov MRP poll for UK election. German 5Y auction oversubscribed (1.95x vs 1.73x in Oct). GOCs slightly lower in line with tsys, news of strike settlement yest unlikely to impact GOCs, strike was relatively short lived. RRB auction today, reopening of the 0.5% 2050 for $700mln
News headlines
Stocks Rise With U.S. Index Futures; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged up while stocks climbed globally as the risk-on mood that’s driven American benchmarks to record highs showed few signs of abating. The dollar was steady before the release of jobs and personal-spending data from the world’s biggest economy.
TSX futures gain on rising hopes of a trade deal (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Wednesday, as upbeat comments from President Donald Trump lifted hopes that the United States and China were close to a trade deal.
Oil Holds Steady as Trade-Deal Hopes Counter Rising Stockpiles (Bloomberg) Oil held steady as traders weighed hopes for a limited U.S.-China trade deal against a reported increase in American crude stockpiles.
China’s industrial profits post steepest fall in eight months (Reuters) Profits at China’s industrial firms shrank at their fastest pace in eight months in October, tracking sustained drops in producer prices and exports and underscoring slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.
China front-loads $142 billion in 2020 local government bonds to spur growth (Reuters) China has brought forward 1 trillion yuan ($142.07 billion) of the 2020 local government special bonds quota to this year as it seeks to avert a sharper economic slowdown.
International stocks to outperform U.S. in 2020: investors (Reuters) Even though the U.S. stock market continues a record-breaking rally that has sent the benchmark S&P 500 index up nearly 25% for the year, investors appear to be looking elsewhere for better values in the year ahead.
Trump says China deal in ‘final throes’ as top officials speak (BNN) President Donald Trump declared Tuesday that talks with China on the first phase of a trade deal were near completion after negotiators from both sides spoke by phone, signaling progress on an accord in the works for nearly two years.
Canada’s biggest rail strike in a decade ends, backlogs could nag shippers (Reuters) Canada’s longest railroad strike in a decade ended on Tuesday as Canadian National Railway Co reached a tentative agreement with workers, but shippers warned it could take weeks before service bounces back to normal.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.048% at 129-20, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 3147, Crude oil futures are up 0.15% at $58.5, Gold futures are down -0.19% at $1464.6, DXY is up 0.07% at 98.319, CAD/USD is down -0.01% at 0.7536.
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov 22 Survey: — Actual: 1.50% Prior: -2.20% |
| 08:30 AM | GDP Annualized QoQ, 3Q S Survey: 1.90% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 1.90% |
| Personal Consumption, 3Q S Survey: 2.80% Actual: 2.9% Prior: 2.90% | |
| GDP Price Index, 3Q S Survey: 1.70% Actual: 1.8% Prior: 1.70% | |
| Core PCE QoQ, 3Q S Survey: 2.20% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 2.20% | |
| Durable Goods Orders, Oct P Survey: -0.90% Actual: 0.6% Prior: -1.20% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Oct P Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.6% Prior: -0.40% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 23 Survey: 221k Actual: 213k Prior: 227k | |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 16 Survey: 1691k Actual: 1640k Prior: 1695k | |
| 09:45 AM | MNI Chicago PMI, Nov Survey: 47.0 Prior: 43.2 |
| Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 24 Survey: — Prior: 59.1 | |
| 10:00 AM | Personal Income, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.30% |
| Personal Spending, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.20% | |
| PCE Deflator MoM, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.00% | |
| PCE Deflator YoY, Oct Survey: 1.40% Prior: 1.30% | |
| PCE Core Deflator MoM, Oct Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.00% | |
| PCE Core Deflator YoY, Oct Survey: 1.70% Prior: 1.70% | |
| Pending Home Sales MoM, Oct Survey: 0.20% Prior: 1.50% | |
| 02:00 PM | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
26/11/2019
Market Update
US tsys extending highs after more China headlines – ‘sticking points remain’ and rise in Oct retail inventories (0.3% vs 0.1%) 10Y 1.735% (-2bps), S&P futures unch. Gilts sharply higher, 10Y gilt 6bps lower @0.63% lowest since Nov1 despite lower demand for auction of GBP3bln 5Y bonds (b/c 2.16 vs 2.28 in Oct), polls showing Conservative lead over Labour in UK election shrinking. GOCs higher in line with tsys, no data until Friday’s Q3 GDP (1.3% exp). Rail strike likely to figure in next week’s BOC deliberations, with the accommodative outlook unlikely to shift from Oct, thou progress is being made in negotiations according to BN. In corps, Morguard priced $225mln 5Y @ 270 (tight end of guidance) , deal did not look cheap yet spds still finished 7bps narrower.
News headlines
U.S. Equity Futures Drift; Treasuries Edge Higher: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures drifted with European stocks as investors searched for signs of progress in China’s comments about prospects for a “phase-one” trade deal. Treasuries and most European sovereign bonds edged higher.
TSX futures edge lower as investors remain cautious on trade deal (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures fell on Tuesday, as investors awaited concrete signs of any progress in trade talks between the United States and China.
Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold phone call, discuss core issues (Reuters) Top trade negotiators from China and the United States held a phone call on Tuesday morning, China’s Commerce Ministry said, as the two sides try to hammer out a preliminary “phase one” deal in a trade war that has dragged on for 16 months.
Oil Steadies on Signs of Trade-Talks Progress, Stockpile Drop (Bloomberg) Oil steadied on signs of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China, and estimates that American crude inventories retreated for the first time in five weeks.
Scotiabank’s wealth management drive pays off with earnings lift (BNN) Bank of Nova Scotia is putting the spotlight on its global wealth-management business for good reason.
It’s not just trade hopes fueling the U.S. stocks rally (Reuters) Wall Street stocks have leap-frogged over a host of concerns, including a stall in corporate earnings and political controversy in Washington, on their way to record highs this month.
Alibaba’s Hong Kong shares rise 6.6% on debut in heavy volume (Reuters) Alibaba Group’s (BABA.N) (9988.HK) Hong Kong shares closed their first trading session up 6.6% from the issue price after this year’s largest stock sale.
World stocks edge off highs to await U.S.-China progress (Reuters) World stocks edged off their highest in almost two years on Tuesday, but kept record levels in sight, following fresh signs that the United States and China were working to end a trade war dragging on the global economy.
Fed’s Powell Says U.S. Economy’s Glass Is ‘More Than Half Full’ (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck an upbeat tone in gauging the ability of policy makers to extend the record U.S. economic expansion, while signaling interest rates would probably remain on hold.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.084% at 129-20, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 3134, Crude oil futures are up 0.33% at $58.2, Gold futures are down -0.12% at $1462.1, DXY is down -0.03% at 98.297, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7515.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.578% | 2 Year | 1.594% |
| 5 Year | 1.491% | 5 Year | 1.608% |
| 10 Year | 1.456% | 10 Year | 1.745% |
| 30 Year | 1.565% | 30 Year | 2.185% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Advance Goods Trade Balance, Oct Survey: -$71.0b Actual: -$66.5b Prior: -$70.4b |
| Retail Inventories MoM, Oct Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.30% Prior: 0.30% Revised 0.2% | |
| Wholesale Inventories MoM, Oct P Survey: 0.20% Actual: 0.20% Prior: -0.40% | |
| 09:00 AM | House Price Purchase Index QoQ, 3Q Survey: — Prior: 1.00% |
| FHFA House Price Index MoM, Sep Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.20% | |
| S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, Sep Survey: 0.30% Prior: -0.16% | |
| S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, Sep Survey: 2.01% Prior: 2.03% | |
| 10:00 AM | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Nov Survey: 5 Prior: 8 |
| New Home Sales, Oct Survey: 705k Prior: 701k | |
| New Home Sales MoM, Oct Survey: 0.60% Prior: -0.70% | |
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Nov Survey: 127.0 Prior: 125.9 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230