Commentaires

Market Update

US tsys trading lower, yields 0.5-1.5bp higher led by the 7Y , with the 10Y 1.785 (+1.5bps), heavier volume in TY futures inflated by Dec/Mar roll.  Equity futures higher, S&P +7.25, crude slightly higher 57.88 close to top of three month range. Headline in Global Times over the weekend suggested China and the US were close to phase one trade deal (MNI). Core EGBs mixed, gilts higher, bunds lower despite slightly weaker German IFO expectations. GOCs lower, wider vs tsys after stronger Sep Wholesale Trade (1.0% vs unch). Q3 GDP on Friday the focus for the week (1.3% exp)

News headlines

Stocks Climb After China’s IP Move; Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures climbed along with stocks globally as investors digested China’s decision to tighten intellectual property rules, a move that may boost the chances of a trade deal between the world’s largest economies. Treasuries, the yen and gold declined.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures rise on hopes of U.S.-China phase-one trade deal (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures were up on Monday over signs that the U.S. and China would agree on a phase-one trade deal by year end.

Oil Steady Near $58 on Glimmer of Progress in Trade War Talks (Bloomberg) Oil steadied near $58 a barrel as China made a concession that could help resolve trade tensions with the U.S. that have weighed on the global economy and fuel demand.

No ‘phase two’ U.S.-China deal on the horizon, officials say (Reuters) An ambitious “phase two” trade deal between the United States and China is looking less likely as the two countries struggle to strike a preliminary “phase one” agreement, according to U.S. and Beijing officials, lawmakers and trade experts.

Chinese importers scoop up Brazilian soybeans amid U.S. trade uncertainty (Reuters) Chinese buyers scooped up at least 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans last week due to uncertainty over a trade deal with the United States that sent them rushing to lock in supplies, traders said on Monday.

China to raise penalties on IP theft in trade war compromise (BNN) China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the U.S.

China central bank warns high financial risks amid rising economic headwinds (Reuters) China needs to resolve outstanding financial risks, and must counter risks from “abnormal” market fluctuations that stem from external shocks, said the central bank on Monday, as Beijing prioritizes financial stability amid increasing challenges.

Layoffs hit farmers, chemical firms as CN Rail strike continues (BNN) Workers are receiving layoff notices and chemical companies face shutdowns as the effects of Canada’s largest rail strike in a decade ripples through the economy.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.133% at 129-09, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 3118.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.21% at $57.65, Gold futures are down -0.57% at $1462.1, DXY is up 0.06% at 98.329, CAD/USD is up 0.05% at 0.7514.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.588%	2 Year	1.644%
5 Year	1.513%	5 Year	1.647%
10 Year	1.487%	10 Year	1.788%
30 Year	1.593%	30 Year	2.23%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Oct  Survey: -0.20 Actual: -0.71 Prior: -0.45
10:30 AM	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Nov  Survey: -3.7  Prior: -5.1

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.00% Actual: 1.00% Prior: -1.20%
10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Nov 22  Survey: —  Prior: 56.2

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher, yields 1-2.5bps lower with the 10Y 1.75% (-2.5bps), tsy curve 1bp flatter on heavier volume due to the Dec/Mar roll, prices buoyed by rally in core EGBs on weak data. UK PMI data missed (48.6 vs 50.1), gilts bull flattening with yields 4-6bps lower. GOCs higher, lagging the move in tsys by 1bp in 10s. Sep retail sales expected to have declined 0.3% m/m due to lower gas and autos (auto sales -3.7% in Sep). Poloz stuck with a neutral tone in his ‘fireside chat’ yesterday, saying monetary conditions are ‘about right’, disappointing the doves after Wilkins earlier comments.

News headlines

U.S. Equity Futures Edge Higher as Treasuries Gain: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged higher while European stocks advanced as investors digested the latest headlines on the trade dispute between America and China. Treasuries rose along with most benchmark bonds in Europe after some mixed economic data.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures rise on U.S.-China trade optimism (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures were up on Friday, as investors were hopeful about China’s willingness to work with the U.S. on the trade deal.

Oil Pares Third Weekly Gain Amid Mixed Signals on Trade Deal (Bloomberg) Oil pared its third weekly advance amid mixed signals on a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, which would end an impasse that has weighed on the global economy and fuel demand.

CN Rail strike triggers emergency propane shortage in Quebec (BNN) Quebec is facing an emergency shortage of propane and shipments of oil, grain and metal are grinding to a halt as the impact of a rail strike in Canada threatened to take a multibillion-dollar chunk out of the nation’s economy.

China’s Xi says he wants to work out initial trade deal with U.S. (Reuters) China wants to work out an initial trade pact with the United States and has been trying to avoid a trade war, President Xi Jinping said on Friday, but is not afraid to retaliate when necessary.

GDP revisions put China on target to double economy, but data doubts remain (Reuters) China on Friday revised up its nominal 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.1% to 91.93 trillion yuan ($13.08 trillion), keeping it on track to achieving its goal of doubling the size of its economy by 2020 from 2010.

Bridgewater Associates bets over $1 billion on market drop: WSJ (Reuters) Bridgewater Associates LP, a hedge fund founded by billionaire Ray Dalio, has bet more than $1 billion that stock markets around the world will fall by March, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

ECB can’t be complacent about bubble risks: Weidmann (Reuters) The European Central Bank should not be complacent if its ultra- easy policy fuels bubbles because the tools devised to mitigate these imbalances are in their infancy, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Friday.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.109% at 129-20, S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% at 3108.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.32% at $58.39, Gold futures are up 0.39% at $1476.3, DXY is up 0.04% at 98.028, CAD/USD is down -0.07% at 0.7532.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.553%	2 Year	1.595%
5 Year	1.483%	5 Year	1.601%
10 Year	1.464%	10 Year	1.753%
30 Year	1.578%	30 Year	2.208%

US Economic Data

09:45 AM	Markit US Services PMI, Nov P  Survey: 51.0  Prior: 50.6
	Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Nov P  Survey: 51.4  Prior: 51.3
	Markit US Composite PMI, Nov P  Survey: —  Prior: 50.9
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Nov F  Survey: 95.7  Prior: 95.7
11:00 AM	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Nov  Survey: -2  Prior: -3

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Retail Sales MoM, Sep  Survey: -0.30%  Prior: -0.10%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Sep  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: -0.20%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading lower, paring earlier losses, 10Y 1.76% (+1.2bps), heavy volume in TY futures mostly due to Dec/Mar roll. Initial risk-on after comments from China Morning Post that US may delay Dec 15th tariffs. S&P futures +3.5  UK gilt yields 3bps higher, UK DMO announced two extra bond auctions for Dec, including a long gilt auction on Dec 5th. Labour also pledged to boost spending by £83bln if they win. GOCs slightly lower, 1bp tighter vs tsys – CGBs bid after weak ADP report (-22k). Poloz to speak in Toronto this morning in a ‘fireside chat’. Deputy Wilkins , in Montreal earlier this week, warned of global headwinds impacting the Canadian economy.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Fluctuate on Trade News; Bonds Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures struggled for traction as investors weighed the latest trade developments, including a bill from Congress supporting Hong Kong protesters that could complicate a deal with China. Stocks fell in Europe and Asia, while Treasuries drifted.

TSX futures edge up as China invites U.S. for fresh round of trade talks (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures were slightly up on Thursday, after a report that China had invited top U.S. officials for a new round of face-to-face trade talks boosted sentiment.

Oil Steady as Trade-Deal Concern Offsets Falling U.S. Stockpiles (Bloomberg) Oil steadied after Wednesday’s rally amid concern that political tensions between the U.S. and China pose another hurdle to a trade deal that could lift the global demand outlook.

Trump expected to sign Hong Kong bill despite China threats (BNN) President Donald Trump is expected to sign legislation passed by Congress supporting Hong Kong protesters, setting up a confrontation with China that could imperil a long-awaited trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

China says it will strive to reach ‘phase one’ trade deal with U.S (Reuters) China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, in an attempt to allay fears talks might be unraveling.

Exclusive: Trump administration to miss 2019 target for Alaska refuge oil lease sale – official (Reuters) The Trump administration will miss its target of holding the first-ever oil drilling lease sale in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge this year due to delays in the environmental review process, Interior Secretary David Bernhardt told Reuters.

OECD sees global growth at decade-low, blames governments’ indecision (Reuters) The global economy is growing at the slowest pace since the financial crisis as governments leave it to central banks to revive investment, the OECD said on Thursday in an update of its forecasts.

Exclusive: German exports to United States jump despite trade tensions (Reuters) Strong German exports to the United States helped Europe’s largest economy to avoid a recession in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, as companies benefited from a weaker euro and trade diversion linked to the U.S.-China tariff dispute.

OPEC+ likely to extend oil supply cuts until June: sources (Reuters) OPEC and its allies are likely to extend existing oil output cuts when they meet next month until mid-2020, with non-OPEC oil producer Russia supporting Saudi Arabia’s push for stable oil prices amid the listing of state oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.169% at 129-19, S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 3113.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.49% at $57.29, Gold futures are down -0.39% at $1468.4, DXY is down -0.2% at 97.739, CAD/USD is up 0.05% at 0.7513.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.52%	2 Year	1.598%
5 Year	1.453%	5 Year	1.607%
10 Year	1.443%	10 Year	1.759%
30 Year	1.565%	30 Year	2.222%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Nov  Survey: 6.0  Prior: 5.6
	Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 16  Survey: 218k  Prior: 225k
	Continuing Claims, Nov 9  Survey: 1683k  Prior: 1683k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 17  Survey: —  Prior: 58.0
	Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Nov  Survey: —  Prior: 49.0
10:00 AM	Leading Index, Oct  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: -0.10%
	Existing Home Sales, Oct  Survey: 5.49m  Prior: 5.38m
	Existing Home Sales MoM, Oct  Survey: 2.00%  Prior: -2.20%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

ADP Canada Releases Oct. Payroll Estimates

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230