Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

Tsys trading sharply lower on heavy volume in TY futures (700k), 10Y 1.877 (+5.7bps), risk assets rallying (S&P +10.5, Nasdaq +35), crude +1.4%) on more trade optimism with China agreeing to cancel existing tariffs if a deal is reached with the US, Chinese currency rising to the highest level since early august. Gilts outperforming after BOE decision – rates unch as expected with two dissenters voting to cut rates to 0.5%, BOE lowering UK growth forecasts. GOCs lower in line with tsys, 10Y 1.59%, rates at the long end have fully retraced post BOC rally. Quiet in terms of data before employment tomorrow.

News headlines

Stocks Rise as China Spurs Trade Hopes; Bonds Fall: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S equity futures climbed with European stocks after China said it agreed with America to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in phases as they work toward a trade deal. Treasuries and gold declined.

U.S.-China trade hopes lift TSX futures (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index gained on Thursday, as signals from Beijing that a “phase one” trade deal with the United States was close to being finalized lifted investors’ sentiment and boosted oil prices more than 1%.

Oil Resumes Gains as Trade Tariff Rollback Counters OPEC Curbs (Bloomberg) Oil jumped as China and the U.S. made progress in resolving the trade dispute that has weighed on global markets this year, offsetting signs that OPEC and its partners won’t make deeper cuts to supply.

Facing shorter holiday season, U.S. retailers rev up faster delivery, early deals (Reuters) U.S. retailers are rushing in with faster-than-ever delivery deals and earlier Christmas promotions in hopes of easing the impact of this year’s shorter holiday selling season, a period that can be make-or-break for retailers.

China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to cancel in phases the tariffs imposed during their months-long trade war, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, without specifying a timetable.

China considers removal of U.S. poultry import restrictions: Xinhua (Reuters) China is considering the removal of restrictions on poultry imports from the United States, state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday.

Japan Abe pledges ‘timely’ steps to fight risks, signals more spending (Reuters) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday the government will consider what policy measures it can take to prevent heightening global uncertainties from derailing the export-reliant economic recovery.

Ontario tries to undo damage from cuts; projects lower 2019-20 deficit (BNN) Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government is reaching into its pockets for hundreds of millions of dollars to undo some of the damage caused by a year of cuts.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.411% at 128-26, S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% at 3086.25, Crude oil futures are up 1.33% at $57.1, Gold futures are down -0.44% at $1486.5, DXY is down -0.01% at 97.946, CAD/USD is down -0.11% at 0.7594.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.618%	2 Year	1.641%
5 Year	1.576%	5 Year	1.682%
10 Year	1.589%	10 Year	1.876%
30 Year	1.733%	30 Year	2.362%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 2  Survey: 215k  Prior: 218k
	Continuing Claims, Oct 26  Survey: 1682k  Prior: 1690k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 3  Survey: —  Prior: 61.0
03:00 PM	Consumer Credit, Sep  Survey: $15.000b  Prior: $17.901b

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading higher on above ag volume (400k TY futures), 10Y 1.83(-2.7bps). Fed Evans saying inflation has undershot Fed’s 2.0% goal, neutral rate may be around 2.0% in interview with BN. UK gilts higher, 10Y gilt/bund spread 3bps tighter with bunds unch – UK PM Johnson launched his election campaign promising to get Brexit done. GOCs higher, seeing some outperformance in GOCs vs tsys in the rally. Active day in corps yest $1.7bln across three issues – Capital Power long 10Y @ 281, Ford 5Y @ 285 and dual tranche Ventas deal, FRN & 4.5Y fixed.   CPXCN looked 15-20 cheap , while Ford was closer to a 20-30 bp concession based on the Ford CAD curve, with the USD 5Y ( 4.063%/24) swapping back to CAD at ~260.

News headlines

Stocks Drift Amid Mixed Earnings; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures struggled for traction alongside stocks in Europe and Asia as a raft of corporate earnings and economic data muddied the outlook for global growth. Treasuries rose after dropping for three days.

TSX futures tread water, eye trade developments (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited more clarity on U.S.-China trade developments.

Oil Slips From Six-Week High on Signs U.S. Supplies Rose Again (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from a six-week high as signs of another increase in U.S. crude reaffirmed the prevailing view that global markets are comfortably supplied.

China to resume imports of Canadian beef and pork (Reuters) China will resume imports of Canadian beef and pork, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday, some four months after Beijing blocked shipments amid an escalating diplomatic feud between the two countries.

Investors left exposed as Trump’s SEC gives America Inc a helping hand (Reuters) The United States’ top market cop is slowly taking the shackles off corporations.

China and France sign deals worth $15 billion during Macron’s visit (Reuters) China and France signed contracts totaling $15 billion during a visit by President Emmanuel Macron, a Chinese government official told a news briefing on Wednesday.

EU, China agree to protect 100 of each other’s regional foods (Reuters) The European Union and China have agreed to protect 100 European regional food designations, known as geographical indications (GI), in China and 100 Chinese geographical indications in the EU, the EU Commission said on Wednesday.

Ontario, Quebec to see budgets improve as Alberta struggles (BNN) As Alberta’s finances worsen, Ontario’s and Quebec’s are poised to only get better, underscoring the changing fortunes and increasing tensions in the Canadian federation.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.17% at 129-05, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 3074.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.4% at $57, Gold futures are up 0.2% at $1486.7, DXY is down -0.18% at 97.808, CAD/USD is up 0.11% at 0.7594.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.622%	2 Year	1.599%
5 Year	1.582%	5 Year	1.641%
10 Year	1.589%	10 Year	1.835%
30 Year	1.736%	30 Year	2.315%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov 1  Survey: —  Actual: -0.10% Prior: 0.60%
08:30 AM	Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q P  Survey: 0.90%  Prior: 2.30%
	Unit Labor Costs, 3Q P  Survey: 2.20%  Prior: 2.60%

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Oct  Survey: —  Prior: 48.7

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading lower, the 10Y back above 1.80%, (1.82 +4bps) heavy volume in TY futures (512k) , risk on with S&P futures (+6.5) looking to extend record highs on reports Trump will drop existing tariffs on $112bln in Chinese imports, the Chinese currency rising to the highest since August. Crude higher for a 3^rd day (57.05 +1%) on trade optimism while OPEC said the outlook for the oil market has brightened going into next year – API inventory data later today. GOCs lower and steeper, 2s10s widest since August 1^st, ~8bps since the BOC decision. We like maintaining steepeners given the cautious BOC and US tsy supply set to pick up this week (3s,10s & 30s).

News headlines

U.S. Futures Gain With Stocks; Treasuries Retreat: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures climbed with European and Asian stocks as investors took confidence from signs that America and China are inching toward a trade deal. Treasuries fell, while the yuan strengthened past 7 for the first time since August.

TSX futures up as trade optimism lifts oil (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as crude prices gained on hopes of a trade deal between the United States and China.

Oil Gains for a Third Day as Trade Deal Optimism Extends (Bloomberg) Oil rose for a third day, buoyed by signs of progress in the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute, despite expectations for expanding American crude stockpiles.

Fed’s Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read (Reuters) Conflicting signals make it difficult to get a handle on the true health of the U.S. economy and reducing uncertainty for businesses would provide a shot in the arm to growth, Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday.

Scramble for propane marks Mother Nature’s latest challenge for U.S. farmers (Reuters) Months after historic floods ravaged the U.S. Midwest, farmers scrambling to harvest their crops face a new headache: finding fuel to dry their soaked grains.

China presses Trump for more tariff roll-backs in ‘phase one’ trade deal (Reuters) China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal, people familiar with the negotiations said on Monday.

OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking, lowers demand view (Reuters) OPEC will supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output of U.S. shale and other rival sources expands, the exporter group said, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.181% at 129-11, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 3081.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.96% at $57.08, Gold futures are down -0.59% at $1502.2, DXY is up 0.15% at 97.651, CAD/USD is down -0.16% at 0.7616.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.622%	2 Year	1.61%
5 Year	1.576%	5 Year	1.625%
10 Year	1.572%	10 Year	1.818%
30 Year	1.732%	30 Year	2.307%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Trade Balance, Sep  Survey: -$52.4b Actual:-$52.5b Prior: -$54.9b
09:45 AM	Markit US Services PMI, Oct F  Survey: 51.0  Prior: 51.0
	Markit US Composite PMI, Oct F  Survey: —  Prior: 51.2
10:00 AM	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Oct  Survey: 53.5  Prior: 52.6

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Int’l Merchandise Trade, Sep  Survey: -0.65b Actual: -0.98b  Prior: -0.96b

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230