Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys slightly higher, close to highs of overnite range , 10Y  at 2.31% back to Feb lows on decent volume overnite (320k TY1), supported by rally in EGBs. Core Euro bonds higher, 10Y bund 0.238% new low since Feb 28th, block buyer of 10Y bund futures 23k at 6:13am. Peripheral yields lower , curves ~3bps flatter in Italy & Spain, paring yesterdays underperformance vs bunds. GOCs better bid, outperforming tsys thru the curve, 10Y 1.55%. Yest GOCs saw some widening vs tsys in the aftermath of a positive BOC Outlook Survey, investment intentions & employment both strong while the Markit Manuf PMI rose to the highest level since Oct 2013.

News headlines 

Global Stocks Fall After Weak Car Sales, Yen Rises: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks took direction from weaker U.S. equities overnight as carmakers reported disappointing trade. Gold strengthened with the yen and dollar while South Africa’s rand dropped on a ratings downgrade.

Oil prices steady as Libyan output rebounds (Reuters) Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as a rebound in Libyan crude production balanced expectations of a draw in U.S. crude oil and product inventories. Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 25 cents at $53.37 a barrel by 1055 GMT. U.S. light crude oil CLc1 was 25 cents higher at $50.49 a barrel.

Yen rises on heightened risk aversion, Aussie hits three-week low (Reuters) The yen gained on Tuesday as a risk-averse investors flocked to the safe-haven currency, while Australia’s dollar sank to a three-week low after its central bank raised concerns about domestic labor conditions.

Canadian Oil Disruption, OPEC Output Cuts Open Door for Mexico (Bloomberg) Canadian crude shipments to the U.S. are poised to shrink just as the effects of OPEC-led output cuts are being felt in the Caribbean. That’s good news for Mexico and other local oil producers. Syncrude Canada Ltd. told customers they wouldn’t receive any supply in April from its 350,000 barrel-a-day upgrader, according to people familiar with the matter.

U.S. business seeks action, not trade war, in Xi-Trump summit (Reuters) Although worried about the prospect of a trade war, American businesses operating in China nonetheless want President Donald Trump to wring some concessions on market access from China’s leader Xi Jingping when the two meet this week.

Trudeau Innovation Shift Already Underway as Ontario Tech Booms (Bloomberg) Things are looking bright for Dan Leibu and League Inc., a digital health and benefits platform he founded with three friends two years ago in Toronto. League plans to triple staff to as many as 200 by the end of the year and start offering services in the U.S. The company provides an alternative to traditional benefit plans offered by insurers, targeting small and medium-sized businesses that appreciate its flexibility and easy access. It received $25 million in venture funding last year from one of Canada’s largest pension plans, among others.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.112% at 125-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.32% at 2348.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.44% at $50.46, Gold futures are up 0.58% at $1261.3, DXY is up 0.1% at 100.64, CAD/USD is up 0.52% at 0.7434.

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys moving lower on higher core PCE which rose to the Fed’s target 1.8% from 1.7% for the first time since 2012, US 10Y 2.42%. Core Euro bonds mixed –  UK gilt curve 1bp flatter as UK gilts have 0.29yr month end extension based on BB data, compared to 0.07yrs for tsys. German bunds recovering from earlier losses , German unemployment fell to a new all time low of 5.7% in March as the no. of unemployed fell by 30k vs 10k exp. Euro zone inflation fell to 1.5% in Jan from 1.8%, 0.7% for the core . ECB Coeure said the balance of risks has shifted to neutral and that inflation remains subdued. GOCs lower, underperforming tsys after Cdn Jan GDP surprised to the upside in Jan, rising 0.6% vs 0.3% exp 2.3% y/y vs 1.9%- quite strong thou ‘whisper’ no. was already higher given the run of solid Jan data.

News headlines 

Global Stocks Drop on Final Day of Stellar Quarter: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Global stocks were poised to end a blockbuster quarter with a whimper, with investors seeing little reason to take shares higher amid political and economic uncertainty in the coming quarter. The rand tumbled after South Africa’s finance minister was fired.

Euro-Area Inflation Slows More Than Predicted on Oil, Food (Bloomberg) Inflation in the euro area slowed for the first time in nearly a year this month, which may reinforce the view among some European Central Bank policy makers that it’s too soon to start unwinding unconventional stimulus.

Japan output jump, low jobless rate yet to spark inflation (Reuters) Japanese factory output rose at the fastest pace in eight months and the jobless rate hit a two-decade low in February, a sign a rebound in overseas demand continued to brighten prospects for the country’s export-reliant economy. But household spending remained soft and consumer inflation was flat when stripping away the effect of rising energy costs, underscoring the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in generating sustained price rises backed by steady wage growth.

China’s factory activity hits 5-year high in March (Market Watch) An official gauge of Chinese factory activity hit a near five-year high in March as government stimulus spending and rising prices for factory goods bolstered the world’s second-largest economy. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged up to 51.8 in March from 51.6 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. The March reading, slightly above a median forecast of 51.7 from a Wall Street Journal poll of by 12 economists, has remained above the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction for eight straight months.

EU offers Brexit trade talks, sets tough transition terms (Reuters) The European Union offered Britain talks this year on a future free trade pact but made clear in negotiating guidelines issued on Friday that London must first agree to EU demands on the terms of Brexit. Those include paying tens of billions of euros and giving residence rights to some 3 million EU citizens in Britain, the proposed negotiating objectives distributed by EU summit chair Donald Tusk to Britain’s 27 EU partners showed.

Credit Suisse Raided, Client Assets Seized in Tax Evasion Probe (Bloomberg) Credit Suisse Group AG, some of its employees and hundreds account holders are the subjects of a major tax evasion and money laundering probe that spans five countries. Investigators in the Netherlands arrested two individuals on Thursday, seizing a gold bar, paintings, jewelry and bank account information. They allegedly concealed millions of euros from authorities by placing them in Swiss bank accounts, the Fiscal Information and Investigation Service said in a statement Friday. Criminal investigations are also underway in Australia, Germany, the U.K. and France.

BCE, Rogers racing to new frontier in high-speed Internet (TheGlobeAndMail)  In their continuing fight for the home, BCE Inc. and Rogers Communications Inc. are racing to roll out faster networks while they capitalize on different strengths to win television and Internet customers. In separate announcements this week, the rivals underscored investments they’re making to support download speeds of one gigabit per second – the new frontier in high-speed Internet, crucial for the growing number of connected devices, data-hungry applications and advanced television platforms.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.038% at 124-10, S&P 500 futures are down -0.14% at 2361.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.2% at $50.25, Gold futures are down -0.42% at $1242.7, DXY is up 0.06% at 100.47, CAD/USD is down -0.31% at 0.7518.

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230