Commentaires
05/04/2017
Market Update
Tsys lower off post ADP losses – AD P surprised to the upside (263k vs 185k)pointing to a strong non farm, 10Y 2.37% (+1bp), equity futures higher while crude extending gains 51.58(+1.0%) after API crude inventories fell 1.83mln bbls last week. EGBs lower 10Y bund 0.267% with French yields unch – France’s Le Pen said to have underperformed once again in a TV debate while ECB council member Weidmann advocated removing policy accommodation. GOCs outperforming as tsys rebound, 10Y 1.59%, provis unch after finsihing wider on no supply. Quebec priced its 10Y USD benchmark at MS+ 52.
News headlines
Stocks Rise as Oil Extends Gain; Data Boosts Pound: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) European stocks overcame a sluggish start as oil’s advance spurred energy companies, while the dollar and Treasuries steadied before the latest Fed minutes and a meeting between Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Sterling rose as U.K services grew faster than expected.
EU, Greece urge deal on bailout review on Friday (Reuters) Greece and its lenders must reach a deal on a long-stalled bailout review at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Friday, the country’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Wednesday, blaming creditors for unwarranted delays.
Trump declares end to ‘war on coal,’ but utilities aren’t listening (Reuters) When President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week to sweep away Obama-era climate change regulations, he said it would end America’s « war on coal », usher in a new era of energy production and put miners back to work.
EU lawmakers adopt Brexit resolution, reject pro-Gibraltar hint (Reuters) European Union lawmakers adopted a resolution on Wednesday setting their red lines for the two-year divorce talks with Britain and rejected attempts by British MEPs to recognize Gibraltar’s pro-EU stance in the Brexit referendum.
Le Pen Ambushed in French Debate as Macron Attacks on Euro (Bloomberg) Marine Le Pen was labeled soft on her euro exit plans during a television debate performance that failed to win over viewers. The National Front leader’s opposition to the European Union has been a signature issue in the presidential election.
Hudson’s Bay Co posts deep $152 million net loss as it continues to make ‘tough decisions’ (Financial Post) Hudson’s Bay Co. posted a steep fourth quarter loss Tuesday after the retailer reported weak holiday sales and took a $116 million impairment charge related to its ailing off-price business, which includes Saks Off Fifth and online deals retailer Gilt.
Toronto Home Prices Just Jumped Another 33% (Bloomberg) Toronto’s residential housing market showed no signs of cooling last month, with the average sale price soaring a record 33 percent from a year ago, pushing the cost of a detached home in the heart of the city to almost C$1.6 million ($1.2 million).
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.112% at 124-29, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 2360.75, Crude oil futures are up 1.23% at $51.66, Gold futures are down -0.59% at $1251, DXY is up 0.01% at 100.55, CAD/USD is down -0.11% at 0.747.
US Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Mar 31, 1.6% (prior -0.8%) |
| 8:15 AM | ADP Employment Change, Mar, 263k, est. 185k (prior 298k) |
| 9:45 AM | Markit US Services PMI, Mar F, est. 53.1 (prior 52.9) |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Mar F, (prior 53.2) | |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, Mar, est. 57.0 (prior 57.6) |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes Release From March 14-15 meeting |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no major economic news release for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
04/04/2017
Market Update
Tsys slightly higher, close to highs of overnite range , 10Y at 2.31% back to Feb lows on decent volume overnite (320k TY1), supported by rally in EGBs. Core Euro bonds higher, 10Y bund 0.238% new low since Feb 28th, block buyer of 10Y bund futures 23k at 6:13am. Peripheral yields lower , curves ~3bps flatter in Italy & Spain, paring yesterdays underperformance vs bunds. GOCs better bid, outperforming tsys thru the curve, 10Y 1.55%. Yest GOCs saw some widening vs tsys in the aftermath of a positive BOC Outlook Survey, investment intentions & employment both strong while the Markit Manuf PMI rose to the highest level since Oct 2013.
News headlines
Global Stocks Fall After Weak Car Sales, Yen Rises: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks took direction from weaker U.S. equities overnight as carmakers reported disappointing trade. Gold strengthened with the yen and dollar while South Africa’s rand dropped on a ratings downgrade.
Oil prices steady as Libyan output rebounds (Reuters) Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as a rebound in Libyan crude production balanced expectations of a draw in U.S. crude oil and product inventories. Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 25 cents at $53.37 a barrel by 1055 GMT. U.S. light crude oil CLc1 was 25 cents higher at $50.49 a barrel.
Yen rises on heightened risk aversion, Aussie hits three-week low (Reuters) The yen gained on Tuesday as a risk-averse investors flocked to the safe-haven currency, while Australia’s dollar sank to a three-week low after its central bank raised concerns about domestic labor conditions.
Canadian Oil Disruption, OPEC Output Cuts Open Door for Mexico (Bloomberg) Canadian crude shipments to the U.S. are poised to shrink just as the effects of OPEC-led output cuts are being felt in the Caribbean. That’s good news for Mexico and other local oil producers. Syncrude Canada Ltd. told customers they wouldn’t receive any supply in April from its 350,000 barrel-a-day upgrader, according to people familiar with the matter.
U.S. business seeks action, not trade war, in Xi-Trump summit (Reuters) Although worried about the prospect of a trade war, American businesses operating in China nonetheless want President Donald Trump to wring some concessions on market access from China’s leader Xi Jingping when the two meet this week.
Trudeau Innovation Shift Already Underway as Ontario Tech Booms (Bloomberg) Things are looking bright for Dan Leibu and League Inc., a digital health and benefits platform he founded with three friends two years ago in Toronto. League plans to triple staff to as many as 200 by the end of the year and start offering services in the U.S. The company provides an alternative to traditional benefit plans offered by insurers, targeting small and medium-sized businesses that appreciate its flexibility and easy access. It received $25 million in venture funding last year from one of Canada’s largest pension plans, among others.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.112% at 125-06, S&P 500 futures are down -0.32% at 2348.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.44% at $50.46, Gold futures are up 0.58% at $1261.3, DXY is up 0.1% at 100.64, CAD/USD is up 0.52% at 0.7434.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Trade Balance, Feb, -$43.6b, est. -$44.6b (prior -$48.5b, revised -$48.2b) |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders, Feb, est. 1.0% (prior 1.2%) |
| Factory Orders Ex Trans, Feb, (prior 0.3%) | |
| Durable Goods Orders, Feb F, est. 1.7% (prior 1.7%) | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Feb F, (prior 0.4%) | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Feb F, (prior -0.1%) | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Feb F, (prior 1.0%) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Feb, -0.97b, est. 0.60b (prior 0.81b, revised 0.42b) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
03/04/2017
Market Update
Tsys higher at upper end of o/n range on above avg volume in TY futures , US 10Y 2.38 (-1bp) – ‘risk off’ bid on reports of explosion in St Petersburg and before key ISM Man data at 10:00am and March FOMC minutes Wednesday and March Employment Friday. Latest CFTC COT report for March 28th showed large specs extending shorts in the short end – record short Eurodollars , yet paring back on shorts in 2s, 10s and longs. In the long end specs cur net shorts in the 30Y bond by 30k contracts to -20k. Core Euro bonds higher – bull steepener in Germany/flattener in UK. Strong bid in German , Italy & Spain short end as the new quarter sees long vol trades being unwound and before ECB meeting on Thursday. Gilts higher on weaker UK PMI, 10Y gilt at one month low 1.10%. GOCs are slightly higher in line with tsys, before Markit Man Survey for March and BOC Business Outlook Survey for Q1. The Q4 survey saw showed strong increases in all three key measures of hiring, sales and investment intentions with both future sales and investment intentions at 2 yr highs. Provis – little changed on the week, Ont 26/48 roll steeper as buyign led by 10s last week. PQ 10Y 76.5/ from 77 at n.i. last Thurs.
News headlines
Europe Stocks Rise Fifth Day, Pound Falls on Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) European shares advanced for a fifth day and the pound retreated at the start of a busy week that includes a meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump and culminates in the monthly U.S. jobs report.
Euro-Area Unemployment Declines to Lowest Level in Eight Years (Bloomberg) Euro-area unemployment fell to the lowest level in almost eight years in February, in a sign that the region’s economy is strengthening. Joblessness decreased to 9.5 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said on Monday. That’s the lowest since May 2009 and matches the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Sterling slips after UK manufacturing loses momentum (Reuters) Sterling slipped on Monday after data showed British manufacturing lost momentum last month, the latest sign the economy may be running out of steam after its surprising resilience in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote.
Japan business mood brightens as recovery broadens: BOJ tankan (Reuters) Japanese big manufacturers’ business confidence improved for a second straight quarter to hit a one-and-a-half year high in March, a closely watched central bank survey showed, a sign the benefits of an export-driven economic recovery were broadening.
Canadian Stocks Need Oil’s Secret Sauce to Revive Former Glory (Bloomberg) Canadian stocks ranked 21st among the world’s developed markets in the first quarter, an ignominious performance that investors don’t expect to improve much for the rest of the year — unless oil bolts higher again. Strategists and portfolio managers are betting the S&P/TSX Composite Index will only rise about 3.3 percent to 16,066 by the end of 2017 from Friday’s close, according to the average of eight forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News. The full-year forecast gain of 5 percent contrasts with the benchmark’s 18 percent return in 2016.
OPEC’s Barkindo Sees Progress in Oil Cuts as Stockpiles Drop (Bloomberg) Crude stockpiles are starting to decline in a sign that the production cuts implemented this year are bringing the market to balance, according to OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.151% at 124-24, S&P 500 futures are up 0.02% at 2359.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.2% at $50.7, Gold futures are down -0.18% at $1248.9, DXY is up 0.19% at 100.54, CAD/USD is up 0.27% at 0.7489.
US Economic Data
| 9:45 AM | Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Mar F, est. 53.5 (prior 53.4) |
| ISM Manufacturing, Mar, est. 57.2 (prior 57.7) | |
| ISM Prices Paid, Mar, est. 66.0 (prior 68.0) | |
| ISM New Orders, Mar, (prior 65.1) | |
| ISM Employment Mar, (prior 54.2) | |
| 10:00 AM | Construction Spending, m/m, Feb, est. 1.0% (prior -1.0%) |
| Wards Total Vehicle Sales, Mar, est. 17.30m (prior 17.47m) | |
| Wards domestic Vehicle Sales, Mar, est. 13.65m (prior 13.65m) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MLI leading Indicator, m/m, Feb, 0.4% (prior 0.6%) |
| 9:30 AM | Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI, Mar, (prior24.7) |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index, (prior 58.5) |
| 10:30 AM | Business Outlook Future Survey, 1Q, (prior 26.00) |
| BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey, 1Q, (prior -2.6) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230