Commentaires
15/11/2019
Market Update
US tsy yields 2-3bps higher, 10Y 1.835% (+1.5bps), on avg volume in TY futures (350k), risk on tone with US Commerce sec Ross saying a US-China trade deal will be reached ‘in all likelihood’, while Kudlow said deal is ‘coming down to short strokes’. Equity futures higher (S&P +7.5), crude -0.30%, the USD index unch. US October retail sales on tap, expected to have rebounded to 0.2% from -0.3% in Sep, due primarily to an ~8% increase in gas prices which were flat the previous month . GOCs lower and 1bp wider vs tsys, 10Y 1.485% (+2.5bps). Poloz speech last night notable as he referred to the strong growth in wages, above 4.0%, seeming to attribute more significance from the strong labor market data than GDP.
News headlines
U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher, Treasuries Decline: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures climbed with Asian stocks after a senior American official signaled progress on a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. European shares erased gains and Treasuries slipped.
TSX futures down on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Friday, pressured by a drop in oil prices over concerns of rising supplies next year.
Oil Heads for Weekly Loss on Signs of Adequate Global Supplies (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a weekly decline as rising U.S. crude inventories and new production elsewhere signaled that global markets will remain comfortably supplied.
Automakers around world await Trump tariff decision (Reuters) Automakers around the world are awaiting a decision from U.S. President Donald Trump on whether he will impose up to 25% tariffs on U.S. car and auto part imports after a 180-day review period elapsed this week.
U.S., China trade talks to continue Friday: U.S. commerce chief (Reuters) U.S.-China trade talks are set to continue with a telephone call on Friday as both sides seek to hammer out a phase one trade pact, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said, adding that progress was being made on the agreement’s details.
Kudlow says phase one China deal down to the ‘short strokes’ (BNN) White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said negotiations over the first phase of a trade agreement with China were coming down to the final stages, with the two sides in close contact.
Bank of Canada governor says technological change may call for neutral policy (Reuters) The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other new technologies may be boosting potential output in ways that could take years to show up in the data, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday.
Hong Kong expects first annual recession since financial crisis (BNN) Hong Kong revised down its estimate for economic growth this year as political unrest grips the city, with the government now forecasting the first annual contraction since the global financial crisis a decade ago.
U.S. trade groups raise alarm over Canadian digital services tax (Reuters) More than a dozen U.S. trade groups and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Friday urged the Trump administration to block a French-style digital services tax proposed by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during October’s election.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.169% at 129-04, S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 3104.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.21% at $56.65, Gold futures are down -0.51% at $1465.9, DXY is down -0.04% at 98.12, CAD/USD is down -0.07% at 0.7552.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.545% | 2 Year | 1.612% |
| 5 Year | 1.495% | 5 Year | 1.65% |
| 10 Year | 1.496% | 10 Year | 1.839% |
| 30 Year | 1.641% | 30 Year | 2.317% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Empire Manufacturing, Nov Survey: 6.0 Prior: 4.0 |
| Import Price Index MoM, Oct Survey: -0.20% Prior: 0.20% | |
| Import Price Index YoY, Oct Survey: -2.20% Prior: -1.60% | |
| Export Price Index MoM, Oct Survey: -0.10% Prior: -0.20% | |
| Export Price Index YoY, Oct Survey: — Prior: -1.60% | |
| Retail Sales Advance MoM, Oct Survey: 0.20% Prior: -0.30% | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Oct Survey: 0.40% Prior: -0.10% | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.00% | |
| 09:15 AM | Industrial Production MoM, Oct Survey: -0.40% Prior: -0.40% |
| Capacity Utilization, Oct Survey: 77.00% Prior: 77.50% | |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories, Sep Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.00% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Securities Transactions, Sep Survey: — Prior: 4.99b |
| 09:00 AM | Existing Home Sales MoM, Oct Survey: 1.30% Prior: 0.60% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
14/11/2019
Market Update
Tsys higher on risk-off tied to US-China trade, heavy volume in TY futures (600k), 10Y 1.845 (-4bps), tsy curve bull flattening for a 2nd day, prices off session highs after China report it will allow imports of poultry from the US. Core Euro bonds higher, lagging the rally in tsys by 2-3bps. Powell scheduled for 10ET in front of House Budget Committee, other Fed speakers as well. GOCs higher, in line with tsys, 10Y 1.51 (-4bps). Long Canada 2051 auction at noon.
News headlines
Stocks Struggle Amid Trade News, Mixed Growth Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged lower with stocks in Europe and shares were mixed in Asia as investors digested the latest economic data and trade developments. Treasuries and most government bonds advanced.
TSX futures tick up on higher oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Thursday, buoyed by gains in oil prices following a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories and OPEC’s comment about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production in 2020.
Oil Rises on Signs of U.S. Supply Drop, OPEC’s Shale Outlook (Bloomberg) Oil rose for a second day after an industry report pointed to a drop in U.S. inventories, and as OPEC said it sees potential for a “sharp” slowdown in American shale output next year.
China’s economy continues to slow on weak investment and demand (BNN) The engines of China’s economy are spluttering, with exports falling, factory output slowing, investment growth at a record low and consumption coming off the boil.
China says holding ‘in-depth’ talks with U.S. on interim trade deal (Reuters) China and the United States are holding “in-depth” discussions on a first phase trade agreement, and cancelling tariffs is an important condition to reaching a deal, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday.
ECB rates close to bottoming out, hike would be a mistake: Villeroy (Reuters) European Central Bank interest rates are close to bottoming out but low rates must stay and raising them now, as advocated by some, would be a mistake, French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.
Germany dodges recession with unexpected third-quarter growth (BNN) Germany narrowly dodged what would have been its first recession in six years, putting a damper on speculation that the government will add fiscal stimulus any time soon.
Lebanon bank staff to strike until security plan agreed: union (Reuters) Lebanon’s bank staff union called on Thursday for employees to stay on strike until it receives details of a security plan, especially on how to deal with customers.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.133% at 129-02, S&P 500 futures are down -0.15% at 3090.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.86% at $57.61, Gold futures are up 0.33% at $1468.1, DXY is up 0.01% at 98.381, CAD/USD is up 0.12% at 0.7537.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.547% | 2 Year | 1.616% |
| 5 Year | 1.505% | 5 Year | 1.657% |
| 10 Year | 1.513% | 10 Year | 1.845% |
| 30 Year | 1.67% | 30 Year | 2.32% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Oct Survey: 0.30% Prior: -0.30% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Oct Survey: 0.20% Prior: -0.30% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Oct Survey: 0.90% Prior: 1.40% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Oct Survey: 1.50% Prior: 2.00% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Nov 9 Survey: 215k Prior: 211k | |
| Continuing Claims, Nov 2 Survey: 1683k Prior: 1689k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov 10 Survey: — Prior: 59.1 |
| 11:00 AM | DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, Nov 8 Survey: 1500k Prior: 7929k |
| DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories, Nov Survey: -1250k Prior: -2828k |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | New Housing Price Index MoM, Sep Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.10% |
| New Housing Price Index YoY, Sep Survey: -0.20% Prior: -0.30% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
12/11/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading mixed, short end yields slightly higher with the 10Y 1.94% (unch), curve 1bp flatter 2s30s, heavier volume in TY futures (498k). US equity futures slightly higher, crude unch 57.00. Core EGBs mixed, UK gilts slightly lower, bunds mixed with the short end higher despite a much stronger ZEW expectations (-2.1 vs -13), the highest since May. The UK DMO confirmed issuance will rise by £5bln this FY to £126.8bln Pres Trump speaks at noon at the Economic Club of NY. In Canada, GOCs are lower, 2bps wider vs tsys in the long end, short end outperforming. Last Friday’s jobs data was mixed, lower headline figure offset by accelerating in hourly wages (+4.4%).
News headlines
Stocks Rise Amid Trade-War Lull; Treasuries Drift: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures edged higher on Tuesday as European and Asian stocks rose amid a lull in trade-war headlines and simmering tension in Hong Kong. Treasuries fluctuated after a long weekend.
Markets hope for positive signs from Trump trade speech (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to discuss the country’s trade policy at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, and the markets are likely to hang on every word.
Trump expected to delay auto tariffs as Europe invests in U.S. (BNN) The Trump administration may delay a decision on whether to slap tariffs on European automobiles after an intense lobbying campaign by German carmakers highlighted plans to shift global production to American suppliers, people familiar with the White House deliberations said.
OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 Without Deeper Supply Curbs (Bloomberg) With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures higher ahead of Trump’s trade speech (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Tuesday over hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump may signal progress on trade talks with China.
China will keep macro policies stable to achieve targets for 2019 (Reuters) China will use counter-cyclical adjustment measures more effectively and keep macro policies stable to ensure key economic targets for this year are achieved, state television quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Tuesday.
China to tighten liquidity risk management on smaller banks: regulator (Reuters) China’s banking and insurance regulator said on Tuesday it will tighten liquidity management for the country’s smaller banks and offer cross-region liquidity support for rural commercial banks if needed.
Explainer: What a roll-back of Trump tariffs on Chinese goods may look like (Reuters) The latest bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations to cool a 16-month-old trade war is whether President Donald Trump would roll back tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, and how soon.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.085% at 128-09, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 3088.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.46% at $57.12, Gold futures are down -0.21% at $1454, DXY is up 0.16% at 98.354, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.755.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.584% | 2 Year | 1.681% |
| 5 Year | 1.562% | 5 Year | 1.747% |
| 10 Year | 1.585% | 10 Year | 1.938% |
| 30 Year | 1.741% | 30 Year | 2.415% |
US Economic Data
| 06:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Oct Survey: 102.0 Actual: 102.4 Prior: 101.8 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230