Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys higher, 10Y 2.37 (-1bp), curve 0.5bps flatter, narrow range on avg volume in TY futures (230k) and before Case Shiller & Cons Confidence as well as $34bln 5Y auction at 1:00ET. Core Euro bonds mixed – UK gilts lower & steeper wit the 5Y outperforming on solid auction of reopened June 2022 Gilt. Bunds higher, 10Y 0.388% (-1.7bps) with the 2Y lagging after weak 2Y Schatz auction. Rally in Italian debt  led by the 10Y with yields at three week low on reduction of hedges related to Eurozone political risk. GOCs higher, outperforming tsys by ~1bp out to 10 yrs and the 10Y below key 1.60% resis , 1.58% (-2.5bps). BOC Poloz speaking at 10:00 on economic history & Quebec budget at 4:00pm.

News headlines 

Stocks, Crude Advance as Calm Returns; Rand Slumps: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks climbed and the dollar steadied as the selloff stemming from U.S. policy uncertainty abated. The rand tumbled on the prospect of South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma firing his finance minister.

British bonds buoyed by Brexit risks, but prone to inflation burn (Reuters) Fast-rising inflation and growing talk of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England may spell the end of a winning streak for British gilts, among the best performers in major government bond markets this year.

Iranian oil minister says global oil cuts deal likely to be extended (Reuters) Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told reporters on Tuesday that a global oil cuts deal is likely to be extended, but that time is needed to discuss the subject thoroughly first.

Canada, Bakken Light Oil Jump as Supply Cut Meets Demand Surge (Bloomberg) Light crude surged in Canada and the northern U.S. after an oil-sands upgrader shut for maintenance because of a fire and Energy Transfer Partners LP said it was preparing to place the Dakota Access pipeline into service.

Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of ‘Penelopegate’ (Reuters) Centrist Emmanuel Macron would trounce far-right leader Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election if, as seems increasingly likely, the two face off in the second and final round of the contest on May 7, a poll showed on Tuesday.

Former CEO Pearson sues Valeant over withheld shares (TheGlobeAndMail) Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.’s former chief executive officer accused the drug maker of failing to deliver 3 million shares promised him as part of an exit package. Ex-CEO Michael Pearson stepped down in May after Valeant’s shares plummeted and it became the subject of U.S. Justice Department and congressional investigations. In his lawsuit filed Monday, he claimed the company promised him 580,676 restricted shares and 2.46 million performance shares.

Best Canada Bond Fund Awaits Trump-Driven Junk Opportunities (Bloomberg) Can Donald Trump deliver? That’s the question Canada’s best-performing bond fund this year is asking as it seeks to extend its advantage in a low-yield world. The Renaissance Corporate Bond Fund, managed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s CIBC Asset Management unit, has returned 2.1 percent year to date, the best result for the first quarter among 36 funds focused on Canadian bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average return is 1.1 percent. The C$1.2 billion ($900 million) Renaissance fund has a one-year total return of 7.1 percent, compared with a 2.3 percent average return for the group.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.063% at 124-24, S&P 500 futures are down -0.15% at 2335, Crude oil futures are up 1.17% at $48.29, Gold futures are up 0.11% at $1260.2, DXY is up 0.04% at 99.202, CAD/USD is up 0.09% at 0.7469.

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

There is no major economic  news release for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys sharply higher, yields 5-6bps lower, US 10Y 2.355 (-5.7bps), follow thru bid from Friday’s healthcare defeat  amid doubts Trump will be able to implement his pro growth agenda. US stock futures lower, DXY index -0.67%, crude below $50 on .  Core Euro bonds higher, yields 2-3bps lower in UK & Germany  – German IFO strong pointing to upside risk in Q2 Eurozone GDP. No data in US & Cda, more Fed speakers as well as $26bln 2Y auction. GOCs higher, outperforming tsys by 0.5bps with the 10Y 1.58% (-5.7bps). Provis ended 1bp wider on Friday on no supply, starting the day unch.

News headlines 

U.S. stock futures hit six-week low on failed healthcare bill (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures hit six-week lows on Monday after President Donald Trump failed to push through his healthcare bill, raising concerns about his ability to deliver on his economic agenda. A Congress controlled by Trump’s Republican party on Friday pulled a bill to overhaul the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare, in a stunning setback for the President’s first major legislative move since taking office.

Dollar hits lowest since November as Trump trade deflates (Reuters) The dollar slid to a four-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday as investors weighed the prospects of a U.S. fiscal spending boost under President Donald Trump after his failure to push through a key healthcare reform bill.

Russia Needs Data on Oil Supply, Markets to Decide on More Cuts (Bloomberg) Russia isn’t ready to support a possible extension of oil-supply cuts into the second half of the year, even as more crude producers acknowledge they will probably need to do so to achieve their goals of balancing the market and firming up prices.

On the up: German business morale brightest in nearly six years (Reuters) German business morale hit its highest level in nearly six years in March, suggesting company executives in Europe’s largest economy are brushing off concerns about the threat of rising protectionism and Germany’s own election issues.

Trump and Trudeau’s Infrastructure Seen Too Tiny for Big Funds (Bloomberg) U.S. and Canadian plans to spend more than $1.1 trillion on infrastructure are unlikely to be lucrative enough to attract big global investors, according to one of the world’s biggest funds in the sector.

Dominion Diamond to explore strategic options, including sale (TheGlobeandMail) Canadian diamond miner Dominion Diamond Corp., which is being pursued by Washington Cos and Stornoway Diamond Corp, said it would explore strategic alternatives, including a sale.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.213% at 124-26, S&P 500 futures are down -0.9% at 2323.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.98% at $47.5, Gold futures are up 0.74% at $1261, DXY is down -0.69% at 98.939, CAD/USD is down -0.2% at 0.749.

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys moving higher after Feb  Durable Goods ex transport came in below exp 0.4% vs 0.6%,  recouping overnight  losses in low volume session as mkts continue to await vote on health care bill in Us house. Equity futures up slightly, crude up 0.50%.  Core Euro bonds higher, 10Y tsy/bund continues to retreat from Tuesday’s 195bp low, now above 200. The Dutch State Treasury released their updated 2017 borrowing pgm, sees issuance requirement continuing to decline, revises budget surplus to 0.5% from balanced in Dec, and inflation rising to 1.6% this yr from 0.9% forecast in Dec. US tsy secretary Mnuchin on the tape saying he expects Obamacare repeal/replace to pass the House. GOCs higher, curve flatter after Feb Cdn CPI came in as exp  0.2% m/m, thou CPI y/y slowed to 2.0% from 2.1% in Jan.  Provincials opening unch after closing 1bp toghter after well received Ontario 27 issue @ 75.5, now 75/74 with no supply expected today. BCIMCR in the mkt yeserday with $250mm long 5Y (August 2022) @ 93.1 & $500mm  10Y @ 120.2.  The 10Y tranche appeared more interesting given the ~4bp concession.

News headlines 

Stocks Slide as Vote Sidelines Traders; Oil Rises: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) European stocks gave up some of Thursday’s gains while bonds advanced before a U.S. health-care vote that has dominated market sentiment this week. The STOXX Europe 600 Index extended its weekly decline, with insurers and energy companies the biggest losers, as trading volumes dropped by almost a third from the previous week. The yen halted its longest rally since 2011 as U.S.

Euro-Area Economic Momentum Bodes Well for Prices and Jobs (Bloomberg) The euro area’s accelerating economy is translating into faster job creation and stronger inflation pressures. A key gauge of activity rose to a near six-year high in March, and employment increased the most since July 2007, with hiring picking up both in services and manufacturing. The jump in the headline IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index compared with economists’ expectation for a decline and the latest reading is in line with a quarterly economic expansion of 0.6 percent. That’s faster than the 0.4 percent pace in the last three months of 2016.

Oil edges up as Saudis cut supplies to U.S., but global glut remains (Reuters) Oil edged higher on Friday, boosted by hopes that an OPEC output cut was beginning to balance a long-oversupplied market, but benchmark prices were on track for weekly losses as concerns persisted over an excess of crude. Benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $50.86 per barrel at 1040 GMT (6:40 a.m. ET), up 30 cents from their last close.

Trump Dares GOP in High-Stakes Vote on Troubled Health Bill (Bloomberg) House GOP leaders are hurtling toward a vote Friday on their embattled health-care bill without knowing for sure whether they have enough support to pass the measure, after yielding to Trump administration demands to act now. If the high-stakes gamble works and the House manages to pass the Obamacare replacement bill, it will be an important win for President Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan who have formed an uneasy alliance to repeal the health care law.

TransCanada gets presidential permit for Keystone XL (Reuters) TransCanada Corp (TRP.TO) said on Friday the U.S. Department of State issued a presidential permit for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline linking Canadian oil sands to U.S. refiners, a project blocked by former President Barack Obama. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to advance the project soon after taking office in January, saying it would create thousands of jobs.

Deutsche Bank picks new London office in show of faith in Britain (TheGlobeAndMail) Deutsche Bank has chosen a new office for its London headquarters, signaling a vote of confidence in Britain’s capital despite the country’s decision to leave the European Union. The German lender has entered into exclusive negotiations with developer Land Securities over a 25-year lease on a new building to be constructed at 21 Moorfields in the City of London, according to a memo sent to staff on Thursday and seen by Reuters.

Overnight markets 

Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 124-13, S&P 500 futures are up 0.21% at 2345, Crude oil futures are up 0.8% at $48.08, Gold futures are down -0.13% at $1248.5, DXY is down -0.09% at 99.675, CAD/USD is up 0.23% at 0.7473.

US Economic Data

Canadian Economic Data

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230