Commentaires
13/01/2017
Market Update
US tsys lower, giving up gains despite bond friendly data on retail sales & PPI, yields bps lower out the curve with the curve 1bp steeper, 10Y 2.34 (-2.3bps). Tsys were initially weaker in Asia following Yellen’s hawkish comments yest aft, noting the improvement in the US labor mkt as well as a pick up in wage growth. Tsys rebounded in London on weaker USD (DXY lower for 3rd day) and lower crude. UK gilts, bunds underperforming curves steeper. Mkts await UK PM May’s speech on Brexit next Tuesday & new 40 yr Gilt syndication expected the week of Jan 23rd. GOCs lower in line with tsys, off the lows after 8:30 data, while provincials weaker for a second day, closing 2bps wider yest despite no issuance thou long issuance from QC & Ont as well as Sask possible today. CPPIB (AAA/Aaa) in the US mkt with a 5Y benchmark.
News headlines
Dollar Falls, Stocks Climb as Trump Optimism Cools: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar headed for its fourth weekly loss against the euro, the longest stretch since March 2014, as investors lose conviction in strategies they’ve pursued since the election. U.S. equity futures climbed before bank earnings season kicks off.
Oil set for weekly fall on doubts over extent of OPEC cuts (Reuters) Oil prices are on track to end the week lower on lingering doubts over the extent of OPEC cuts, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the health of the Chinese economy after it reported the steepest falls in exports since 2009.
China posts worst export fall since 2009 as fears of U.S. trade war loom (Reuters) China’s massive export engine sputtered for the second year in a row in 2016, with shipments falling in the face of persistently weak global demand and officials voicing fears of a trade war with the United States that is clouding the outlook for 2017.
Yellen Sees No Serious Short-Term Obstacles for U.S. Economy (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy faces no serious short-term obstacles, though it must deal with important long-term challenges of low productivity and growing inequality.
Diesel cheating inquiries widen to Renault and Fiat (Reuters) European carmakers were drawn into widening investigations into diesel emissions cheating on Friday, with French prosecutors examining Renault and British authorities seeking answers from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.
Shaw Communications Inc profit drops almost 60%, mainly on the costs of shutting down Shomi (FinancialPost) Shaw Communications Inc. reported choppy first-quarter results Thursday despite its cable business faring better than analysts anticipated, posting a sharp profit loss mainly due to a charge from shutting down video-streaming service Shomi.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.0626% at 124-26, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 2265, Crude oil futures are down -0.68% at $52.65, Gold futures are down -0.08% at $1198.9, DXY is down -0.27% at 101.08, CAD/USD is up 0.01% at 0.7607.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | PPI Final Demand, m/m, Dec, 0.3%, est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%) |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy, m/m, Dec, 0.2% , est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%) | |
| PPI Final Demand, y/y, Dec, 1.6%, est. 1.6% (prior 1.3%) | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy, y/y, Dec,1.6% , est. 1.5% (prior 1.6%) | |
| Retail Sales Advance m/m, Dec, 0.6%, est. 0.7% (prior 0.1%, revised 0.2%) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto, m/m, Dec, 0.2%, est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%, revised 0.3%) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, m/m, Dec, 0.0%, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%, revised 0.3%) | |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories, Nov, est. 0.6% (prior -0.2%) |
| University of Michigan Sentiment, Jan P, est. 98.5 (prior 98.2) |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no major economic data release for today
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
12/01/2017
Market Update
US tsys higher, yields 2-4bps lower, curve flatter with the 10Y 2.33 (-4.4bps). Tsy prices off the highs after initial claims/import pricesGerman bunds weaker due to Italian govt supply. Tsys were higher in Asia on risk off buying after Trump press conf did not address infrastructure spending. Fed Evans & Lockhart will appear on a panel at 8:30am to discuss economic policy while the US auctions $12bln in 30Y bonds after a very well received 10Y yest (3bps thru). GOCs higher led by 10s which are ~3bps tighter on the curve, GOC 10Y 1.66%. Provis opening with a weaker bias after closing 1bp wider yest as GOCs rallied following trump & Mani 10Y y which seemed to compete with a slew of corp supply . Algonquin Power priced $300mln tens @ 243.7 which closed 232 bid, strong demand with 5% fills. Riocan issued $300mln Oct 22s at 160 (155 OTC) after being upgraded by S&P in Dec, also well received closign 5bps tighter on low fills.
News headlines
Dollar Slumps, Bonds Rally as Trump Bets Unwind: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar slid and Treasuries gained with commodities as Donald Trump’s press conference sent a wake-up call to the market about exalted expectations for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. Gold advanced. The U.S. currency slumped against all major peers and the 10-year Treasury yield touched the lowest since November as Trump’s first press conference since his election victory gave scant detail on policy.
Euro zone economy registering surprisingly strong growth spurt (Reuters) Industries across the euro zone cranked up output in November and Germany ended the year with its strongest growth in five year, data showed on Thursday, pointing to an economic spurt that may be arriving earlier than some ECB policymakers expect.
China banks extend record 12.65 trillion yuan in loans in 2016 as debt worries mount (Reuters) China’s banks extended a record 12.56 trillion yuan ($1.82 trillion) of loans in 2016 as the government encouraged more credit-fueled stimulus to meet its economic growth target, despite worries about the risks of an explosive jump in debt.
Mark Carney signals Bank of England may raise forecast for UK economy (TheGuardian) The Bank of England looks set to upgrade its forecasts for the UK economy after admitting that some of the risks posed by the Brexit vote last June have now receded. Giving evidence to the Treasury select committee, governor Mark Carney said the Bank’s actions to avoid a market meltdown after the referendum were a key reason why Threadneedle Street might be raising its forecasts for a second time.
Toronto housing boom to continue as Vancouver slumps (TheGlobeAndMail) Canada’s two largest housing markets are going in different directions, with the Greater Toronto Area poised for another rally in 2017 while the Vancouver region girds for a decline. Royal LePage forecasts the median residential price in the GTA will jump 10 per cent this year while Greater Vancouver will experience an 8.5-per-cent price decrease for various housing types.
Magna expects sales growth to outperform, eyes building vehicles for new industry players (Financial Post) Canadian auto-parts giant Magna International Inc. expects its sales growth to outperform the market over the next three years and sees particular opportunity in manufacturing complete vehicles for new industry players that have never built a car before.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.1753% at 125-1, S&P 500 futures are down -0.23% at 2265.25, Crude oil futures are up 1.61% at $53.09, Gold futures are up 0.38% at $1201.2, DXY is down -0.75% at 101.02, CAD/USD is down -0.69% at 0.7642.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Import Price Index, m/m, Dec, 0.4%, est. 0.7% (prior -0.3%, revised -0.2%) |
| Import Price Index, y/y, Dec, 1.8%, est. 1.8% (prior -0.1%, revised 0.1% ) | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Jan 7, 247k, est. 255k (prior 235k, revised 237k) | |
| Continuing Claims, Dec 31, 2087k, est. 2087k (prior 2112k, revised 2116k) | |
| Philadelphia Fed Index Revisions | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Jan 8, (prior 45.5) |
| 2:00 PM | Monthly Budget Statement, Dec, est. -26.0b (prior -136.7b) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | New Housing Price Index, m/m, Nov, 0.2%, est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%) |
| New Housing Price Index, y/y, Nov, 3.0%, est. 3.1% (prior 3.0%) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
11/01/2017
Market Update
US tsys trading higher, upper end of o/n range with the US 10Y 2.377, albeit in a very narrow range on low volume in TY futures (203k). Asian hrs saw foreign CB selling in the short end, with interest in buying out the curve, flatteners from credit desks (MNI). Quiet on economic data front with 11:00am Trump press conf key event, as well as $20bln 10Y auction at 1:00 & Fed Dudley this aft. Tuesday saw another strong day of primary issuance in the US – $13.75bln highlighted by $ IADB ($3bln), KFW ($5bln), 4 part Nissan deal. GOCs slightly higher, upward bias since early NA trading. The BOC auctions $3.9bln in 2Y , reopened Feb 19s at noon with the F19/2Y roll 1.9/1.8. Provis opening unch, Ont & MP possible issuers.
News headlines
Stocks edge down, dollar steady ahead of Trump news conference (Reuters) World stocks edged down from recent highs and the dollar steadied ahead of a news conference by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in which he is expected to give more details about his plans for the U.S. economy.
Big Oil Hits Sweet Spot as Projects Reap Rewards of Recovery (Bloomberg) Big Oil is poised to reap rewards this year as investments made before the crude-price slump pay off just as the recovery starts. Seven of the world’s largest energy companies will together boost oil and natural gas output by 398,000 barrels a day, the most since since 2010, according to data from Oslo-based consultant Rystad Energy AS. In 2018, output will rise even faster.
PRECIOUS-Gold holds near six-week peak on safe-haven demand (Reuters) Gold on Wednesday held near a six-week high hit in the previous session, with economic and political uncertainty boosting its safe-haven appeal. Markets were waiting for indications on policy from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s first news conference since the U.S. elections, due later in the day.
China’s central bank launches spot checks on bitcoin exchanges (Reuters) China’s central bank said on Wednesday it launched spot checks on major bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai, knocking the price of the cryptocurrency down by more than 6 percent. The probe of bitcoin exchanges, including BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin, was to look into a range of possible rule violations, including market manipulation, money laundering and unauthorized financing, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said. It did not say if any violations had been found.
Canada’s banks won’t see big mortgage losses when interest rates rise, says RBC CEO Dave McKay (Financial Post) An eventual increase in Canadian interest rates is not expected to lead to a spike in mortgage book losses for Canada’s banks, Royal Bank of Canada chief executive Dave McKay told investors Tuesday. Canada’s largest bank has built higher rates into the adjudication process for mortgages, McKay said, adding that employment is the real driver of whether homeowners struggle with mortgage payments.
Alstom/Bombardier consortium seal $1.2 billion French train deal (Reuters) An Alstom (ALSO.PA) and Bombardier (BBDb.TO) consortium has won a French train contract estimated to be worth 1.16 billion euros ($1.22 billion) for the consortium, the companies and French authorities said on Wednesday.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.0501% at 124-27, S&P 500 futures are down -0.09% at 2261.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.61% at $51.13, Gold futures are up 0.19% at $1187.7, DXY is up 0.44% at 102.46, CAD/USD is up 0.04% at 0.7554.
US Economic Data
There is no major economic data release for today
Canadian Economic Data
There is no major economic data release for today
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230