Commentaires
16/01/2017
Market Update
With the Martin Luther King holiday in the US, the Treasury market is really a by-stander in European trading. The volumes on the 10-year contract are running at around 60% of the averageof the past 10 days.
There is no cash activity and while swap market is trading, it is thin. UK Gilt yields have fallen in London Monday morning trading, supported by fresh overnight fall in the value of UK Sterling in wake of weekend
press reports of speculation of PM Theresa May’s Brexit speech scheduled for Tuesday.
News headlines
Brexit Plans Rattle Pound and Stocks as Gold Rises: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The pound fell, equities slid and gold climbed on concern U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is prepared to lead Britain out of the European Union’s single market and as the U.S. President-elect suggested other countries could break from the bloc. Sterling fell below $1.20 for the first time since October after the Sunday Times said May is ready to withdraw from tariff-free trade with the region in return for the ability to curb immigration and strike commercial deals with other countries.
Oil prices slip on doubts over output cuts (Reuters) Oil prices slipped on Monday, pressured by doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year. Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 23 cents a barrel at $55.22 by 1142 GMT (6:42 a.m. ET) and U.S. light crude CLc1 fell 21 cents to $52.16.
Iron Ore Opens 2017 With a Bang After Flaying Skeptics Last Year (Bloomberg) Iron ore has carried last year’s bullish momentum into the start of 2017, with prices rallying to a two-year high amid speculation that China’s demand for overseas ore will hold up even as the world’s largest miners bring on new capacity. Ore with 62 percent content in Qingdao in China climbed 3.9 percent to $83.65 a dry metric ton, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The commodity has risen 6.1 percent in 2017 after surging more than 80 percent last year.
Toronto’s hot housing market spills over to condo rentals (TheGlobeAndMail) Toronto’s sizzling housing market is spilling over into the region’s rental market, pushing up rents to new records as tenants fought over a shortage of rental listings. Average rents for condos rose 11.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to the same period a year earlier, hitting nearly $1,990 a month for a typical 719-square-foot condo, according to new data from Urbanation Inc., a consulting and market research firm that focuses on the Greater Toronto Area’s condo market.
China will ‘take off the gloves’ if Trump continues on Taiwan, state media warns (Reuters) China will « take off the gloves » and take strong action if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump continues to provoke Beijing over Taiwan once he assumes office, two leading state-run newspapers said on Monday. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Friday, Trump said the « One China » policy was up for negotiation. China’s foreign ministry, in response, said « One China » was the foundation of China-U.S. ties and was non-negotiable.
Germany says in interests of EU and U.S. to pursue TTIP talks (Reuters) Germany still regards the TTIP EU-U.S. free-trade deal as an important project and believes it is in both European and U.S. interests to continue negotiations, government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Monday. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has opposed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.0626% at 124-28, S&P 500 futures are down -0.19% at 2268.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.11% at $52.31, Gold futures are up 0.57% at $1203, DXY is up 0.37% at 101.55, CAD/USD is up 0.28% at 0.7604.
US Economic Data
There is no major economic data release for today
Canadian Economic Data
| 9:00 AM | Existing Home Sales, m/m, Dec, (prior -5.3%) |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index, Jan 13, (prior 56.5) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
13/01/2017
Market Update
US tsys lower, giving up gains despite bond friendly data on retail sales & PPI, yields bps lower out the curve with the curve 1bp steeper, 10Y 2.34 (-2.3bps). Tsys were initially weaker in Asia following Yellen’s hawkish comments yest aft, noting the improvement in the US labor mkt as well as a pick up in wage growth. Tsys rebounded in London on weaker USD (DXY lower for 3rd day) and lower crude. UK gilts, bunds underperforming curves steeper. Mkts await UK PM May’s speech on Brexit next Tuesday & new 40 yr Gilt syndication expected the week of Jan 23rd. GOCs lower in line with tsys, off the lows after 8:30 data, while provincials weaker for a second day, closing 2bps wider yest despite no issuance thou long issuance from QC & Ont as well as Sask possible today. CPPIB (AAA/Aaa) in the US mkt with a 5Y benchmark.
News headlines
Dollar Falls, Stocks Climb as Trump Optimism Cools: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar headed for its fourth weekly loss against the euro, the longest stretch since March 2014, as investors lose conviction in strategies they’ve pursued since the election. U.S. equity futures climbed before bank earnings season kicks off.
Oil set for weekly fall on doubts over extent of OPEC cuts (Reuters) Oil prices are on track to end the week lower on lingering doubts over the extent of OPEC cuts, with sentiment worsened by concerns over the health of the Chinese economy after it reported the steepest falls in exports since 2009.
China posts worst export fall since 2009 as fears of U.S. trade war loom (Reuters) China’s massive export engine sputtered for the second year in a row in 2016, with shipments falling in the face of persistently weak global demand and officials voicing fears of a trade war with the United States that is clouding the outlook for 2017.
Yellen Sees No Serious Short-Term Obstacles for U.S. Economy (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy faces no serious short-term obstacles, though it must deal with important long-term challenges of low productivity and growing inequality.
Diesel cheating inquiries widen to Renault and Fiat (Reuters) European carmakers were drawn into widening investigations into diesel emissions cheating on Friday, with French prosecutors examining Renault and British authorities seeking answers from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.
Shaw Communications Inc profit drops almost 60%, mainly on the costs of shutting down Shomi (FinancialPost) Shaw Communications Inc. reported choppy first-quarter results Thursday despite its cable business faring better than analysts anticipated, posting a sharp profit loss mainly due to a charge from shutting down video-streaming service Shomi.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.0626% at 124-26, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 2265, Crude oil futures are down -0.68% at $52.65, Gold futures are down -0.08% at $1198.9, DXY is down -0.27% at 101.08, CAD/USD is up 0.01% at 0.7607.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | PPI Final Demand, m/m, Dec, 0.3%, est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%) |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy, m/m, Dec, 0.2% , est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%) | |
| PPI Final Demand, y/y, Dec, 1.6%, est. 1.6% (prior 1.3%) | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy, y/y, Dec,1.6% , est. 1.5% (prior 1.6%) | |
| Retail Sales Advance m/m, Dec, 0.6%, est. 0.7% (prior 0.1%, revised 0.2%) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto, m/m, Dec, 0.2%, est. 0.5% (prior 0.2%, revised 0.3%) | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, m/m, Dec, 0.0%, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%, revised 0.3%) | |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories, Nov, est. 0.6% (prior -0.2%) |
| University of Michigan Sentiment, Jan P, est. 98.5 (prior 98.2) |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no major economic data release for today
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
12/01/2017
Market Update
US tsys higher, yields 2-4bps lower, curve flatter with the 10Y 2.33 (-4.4bps). Tsy prices off the highs after initial claims/import pricesGerman bunds weaker due to Italian govt supply. Tsys were higher in Asia on risk off buying after Trump press conf did not address infrastructure spending. Fed Evans & Lockhart will appear on a panel at 8:30am to discuss economic policy while the US auctions $12bln in 30Y bonds after a very well received 10Y yest (3bps thru). GOCs higher led by 10s which are ~3bps tighter on the curve, GOC 10Y 1.66%. Provis opening with a weaker bias after closing 1bp wider yest as GOCs rallied following trump & Mani 10Y y which seemed to compete with a slew of corp supply . Algonquin Power priced $300mln tens @ 243.7 which closed 232 bid, strong demand with 5% fills. Riocan issued $300mln Oct 22s at 160 (155 OTC) after being upgraded by S&P in Dec, also well received closign 5bps tighter on low fills.
News headlines
Dollar Slumps, Bonds Rally as Trump Bets Unwind: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The dollar slid and Treasuries gained with commodities as Donald Trump’s press conference sent a wake-up call to the market about exalted expectations for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. Gold advanced. The U.S. currency slumped against all major peers and the 10-year Treasury yield touched the lowest since November as Trump’s first press conference since his election victory gave scant detail on policy.
Euro zone economy registering surprisingly strong growth spurt (Reuters) Industries across the euro zone cranked up output in November and Germany ended the year with its strongest growth in five year, data showed on Thursday, pointing to an economic spurt that may be arriving earlier than some ECB policymakers expect.
China banks extend record 12.65 trillion yuan in loans in 2016 as debt worries mount (Reuters) China’s banks extended a record 12.56 trillion yuan ($1.82 trillion) of loans in 2016 as the government encouraged more credit-fueled stimulus to meet its economic growth target, despite worries about the risks of an explosive jump in debt.
Mark Carney signals Bank of England may raise forecast for UK economy (TheGuardian) The Bank of England looks set to upgrade its forecasts for the UK economy after admitting that some of the risks posed by the Brexit vote last June have now receded. Giving evidence to the Treasury select committee, governor Mark Carney said the Bank’s actions to avoid a market meltdown after the referendum were a key reason why Threadneedle Street might be raising its forecasts for a second time.
Toronto housing boom to continue as Vancouver slumps (TheGlobeAndMail) Canada’s two largest housing markets are going in different directions, with the Greater Toronto Area poised for another rally in 2017 while the Vancouver region girds for a decline. Royal LePage forecasts the median residential price in the GTA will jump 10 per cent this year while Greater Vancouver will experience an 8.5-per-cent price decrease for various housing types.
Magna expects sales growth to outperform, eyes building vehicles for new industry players (Financial Post) Canadian auto-parts giant Magna International Inc. expects its sales growth to outperform the market over the next three years and sees particular opportunity in manufacturing complete vehicles for new industry players that have never built a car before.
Overnight markets
Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.1753% at 125-1, S&P 500 futures are down -0.23% at 2265.25, Crude oil futures are up 1.61% at $53.09, Gold futures are up 0.38% at $1201.2, DXY is down -0.75% at 101.02, CAD/USD is down -0.69% at 0.7642.
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Import Price Index, m/m, Dec, 0.4%, est. 0.7% (prior -0.3%, revised -0.2%) |
| Import Price Index, y/y, Dec, 1.8%, est. 1.8% (prior -0.1%, revised 0.1% ) | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Jan 7, 247k, est. 255k (prior 235k, revised 237k) | |
| Continuing Claims, Dec 31, 2087k, est. 2087k (prior 2112k, revised 2116k) | |
| Philadelphia Fed Index Revisions | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Jan 8, (prior 45.5) |
| 2:00 PM | Monthly Budget Statement, Dec, est. -26.0b (prior -136.7b) |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | New Housing Price Index, m/m, Nov, 0.2%, est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%) |
| New Housing Price Index, y/y, Nov, 3.0%, est. 3.1% (prior 3.0%) |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230