Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys trading higher, yields 1.5-2.5bps lower,10Y 1.735%, avg volume in TY futures (310k). US equity futures lower (S&P -6.0), weighed by earnings from Caterpillar and TI, and further Brexit uncertainty with PM Johnson ready to call an election after yest parliamentary loss on Brexit. Crude -1.0% 53.90, API data showed larger crude inventory build (4.45mln vs 2.23mln exp). GOCs higher in line with tsys, led by the 10Y (1.485% -3bps). BOC Business Outlook Survey noted ‘slight improvement’ in business sentiment and ‘healthy’ investment and hiring plans -overall fairly neutral and unlikely to sway the BOC either way.

News headlines

The cost of climate change: Trial to decide whether ExxonMobil was honest with investors (CNN) A trial in which energy giant ExxonMobil stands accused of misleading investors about the potential impact of climate change regulations on its operations started Tuesday. The New York attorney general brought the suit alleging the company used figures internally that were different from what they disclosed publicly when calculating the impact of laws, taxes and other economic aspects of climate change over the coming decades. The fraud cost investors as much $1.6 billion, the attorney general’s office alleges.

Boris Johnson wins Brexit deal vote but is thwarted on deadline (FT) Boris Johnson won the backing of MPs for his Brexit deal on Tuesday night in a landmark vote in the House of Commons, but a snap election was back on the agenda after MPs derailed his attempt to take Britain out of the EU on October 31. European Council president Donald Tusk proposed offering Mr Johnson a Brexit extension until January 31, after MPs voted against Mr Johnson’s plan to railroad his exit legislation through the Commons in time for the Halloween deadline.

Russia Agrees to Help Turkey Expand Buffer Zone in Syria (WSJ) Russia agreed to help Turkey drive out Kurdish militias from a “safe zone” in northeastern Syria, highlighting Moscow’s flourishing ties with a NATO member and a rebalance of power in war-torn Syria as U.S. troops leave. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would suspend military action for nearly six days against Kurds who his government views as a terrorist threat to let them evacuate the area. During this period, Russian and Syrian security forces would push any remaining Kurdish fighters away from Turkey’s border.

CN Rail sees profits plateau in third quarter amid ‘softening economy’ (BNNBloomberg) Canada’s largest railroad operator cut its profit outlook for 2019 on Tuesday, saying a weaker economy has eroded rail demand. Canadian National Railway Co. lowered its expectations for adjusted earnings per share to the high single digits, down from predictions of low double-digit growth.

Rogers reports $593M third-quarter profit, cuts revenue forecast (BNNBloomberg) Rogers Communications Inc. cut its financial guidance as it reported a profit of $593 million in its latest quarter, compared with $594 million in the same quarter last year.

The cable and wireless company says it earned $1.14 per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $1.15 per diluted share a year ago. Revenue totalled $3.75 billion, down from nearly $3.77 billion in the same quarter last year.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.229% at 130-04, S&P 500 futures are down -0.18% at 2989.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.95% at $53.96, Gold futures are up 0.61% at $1496.5, DXY is up 0.01% at 97.537, CAD/USD is down -0.03% at 0.764.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.6%	2 Year	1.552%
5 Year	1.503%	5 Year	1.553%
10 Year	1.489%	10 Year	1.731%
30 Year	1.601%	30 Year	2.223%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, 43374  Survey: —  )Actual: -11.90% Prior: 0.50%
09:00 AM	FHFA House Price Index MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.40%
10:30 AM	DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, 43374  Survey: 3000k  Prior: 9281k
	DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories, 43374  Survey: -2238k  Prior: -2562k
12:00 AM	Monthly Budget Statement, Sep  Survey: $83.0b  Prior: $119.1b

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 1.70%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys lower, yields 2-4 bps higher , 10Y 1.78 (+2.5bps), S&P futures +9.5 at the highs of the o/n session.  UK gilts lower on as UK PM Johnson forced to ask Parliament for extension on Brexit vote. US data calendar light this week focus on Sep Durable Goods Thurs & tsy supply ($113bln in 2Y,5Y & 7Y). GOCs lower in line with tsys, 10Y yield at the upper end of three month range 1.56%, 10s30s flattest since Dec  @10bps.  Election day today with latest IPSOS showing conservative slight lead over liberals (33 to 31), minority govt likely.  BOC Business Outlook Survey and August Retail Sales tomorrow – the former expected to remain close to the 0.2 level seen in Q2

News headlines

U.S. Equity Futures Rise With Stocks as Bonds Sink: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures advanced alongside European and Asian shares as investors awaited fresh developments on foreign trade and this week’s slew of results from major companies. Bonds dropped.

TSX futures rise on Sino-U.S. trade optimism (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Monday on hopes of a breakthrough in trade talks between China and the United States following positive comments from the two sides.

Oil Extends Decline as Concerns Over Global Economy Persist (Bloomberg) Oil fell again after a weekly loss amid ongoing concern that a fragile economic outlook will continue to weigh on fuel demand.

China seeks $2.4 billion in sanctions against U.S. in Obama-era case: WTO (Reuters) China is seeking $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the United States for non-compliance with a WTO ruling in a tariffs case dating to the Obama era, a document published on Monday showed.

Currency risks? U.S. corporates yawn (Reuters) Muted gyrations in foreign exchange markets has turned companies complacent about hedging currency risks, and as the third-quarter earnings season gets underway investors should brace for U.S. companies to report sizeable negative impacts due to the stronger U.S. dollar, analysts warned.

China September home price growth flatlines, fewer cities see price gains (Reuters) New home prices in China grew at a steady pace in September, with fewer cities reporting price gains, a relief for policymakers who remain wary of high debt and bubble risk and are refraining from stimulating the sector as the economy cools.

U.S. Commerce chief: U.S.-China trade deal doesn’t need to be inked next month (Reuters) The so-called phase one trade deal between the United States and China does not need to be finalized next month, U.S. Commerce Secretary said on Monday, adding that pact needed to be “right.”

A quiet exit for Draghi? Five questions for the ECB (Reuters) Mario Draghi’s last meeting as European Central Bank chief this Thursday may prove a lively gathering given a deep rift among policymakers over renewed asset purchases that threatens the effectiveness of policy.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.18% at 129-26, S&P 500 futures are up 0.31% at 2997.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.35% at $53.59, Gold futures are down -0.03% at $1493.6, DXY is down -0.11% at 97.177, CAD/USD is down -0.17% at 0.7631.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.655%	2 Year	1.59%
5 Year	1.578%	5 Year	1.583%
10 Year	1.576%	10 Year	1.778%
30 Year	1.676%	30 Year	2.283%

US Economic Data

10/21 – 10/25

Monthly Budget Statement, Sep Survey: $83.0b  Prior: $119.1b

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Oct 18  Survey: —  Prior: 58.0

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys unwinding most of earlier gains on Brexit headlines, heavy volume (570k TY futures), yields 1-2 bps lower led by the 7Y , with the 10Y 1.75 (-2bps), UK gilts retracing yest losses as Brexit deal optimism fades, thou latest news on DUP accepting latest proposals. S&P futures -0.3%, crude 53.05 (+0.26).   US retail sales expected +0.3% in Sep after 0.4% Aug (BBG), Fed releases Beige Book at 2:00PM. GOCs trailing tsys before Sep CPI –  median 2.1% vs 1.9% in Aug.

News headlines

Stocks Drop Amid Hong Kong Stress; Treasuries Gain: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) American equity-index futures slipped on Wednesday while European shares struggled for traction as tensions over Hong Kong mounted and earnings season rolled on. Treasuries gained and the dollar was steady.

Futures slip on renewed U.S.-China trade war concerns (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures dipped on Wednesday as a new U.S. bill taking a hard line on China stoked fresh concerns about a prolonged trade war, but more positive results from the banking sector provided some relief and signaled a solid start to the third-quarter earnings season.

TSX futures edge up ahead of inflation report (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures were slightly higher on Wednesday ahead of the inflation data scheduled later in the day.

Oil Steady After Two Days of Losses as Demand Outlook Worsens (Bloomberg) Oil steadied near $53 a barrel after two days of declines as the fragile economic environment and unresolved U.S.-China trade war continue to deteriorate the outlook for global fuel demand.

U.S. ‘deeply concerned’ about untrackable China ships carrying Iran oil: officials (Reuters) The White House is warning Chinese shipping companies against turning off their ships’ transponders to hide Iranian oil shipments in violation of U.S. sanctions, two senior administration officials said.

Germany eyes emergency measures for Brexit market panic: source (Reuters) Germany could use emergency measures to counter any market panic from a hard Brexit, an official with direct knowledge of the matter said, such as banning bets on falling share prices, a step last used in the financial crisis.

U.S. dollar to remain dominant currency; euro, renminbi rising gradually: UBS survey (Reuters) The U.S. dollar will remain the world’s leading reserve currency over the next 25 years, with the euro and renminbi expected to further increase their share of total central bank reserves, according to UBS’ survey of sovereign institutions including major central banks released on Wednesday.

EU-British Brexit talks to resume in Brussels -UK spox (Reuters) Talks between British and EU negotiators on Brexit will resume in Brussels after a lunch break, a UK spokesman said as last-ditch efforts dragged on to seal a divorce deal this week before Britain is due to leave the bloc on Oct. 31. (Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska)

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.241% at 130-03, S&P 500 futures are down -0.17% at 2992.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.59% at $53.12, Gold futures are up 0.03% at $1483.9, DXY is up 0.07% at 98.359, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7571.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.681%	2 Year	1.592%
5 Year	1.571%	5 Year	1.559%
10 Year	1.545%	10 Year	1.734%
30 Year	1.655%	30 Year	2.214%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct 11  Survey: — Actual: 0.50% Prior: 5.20%
08:30 AM	Retail Sales Advance MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.40%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Sep  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.00%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Sep  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.10%
10:00 AM	NAHB Housing Market Index, Oct  Survey: 68  Prior: 68
	Business Inventories, Aug  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.40%
02:00 PM	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
04:00 PM	Net Long-term TIC Flows, Aug  Survey: —  Prior: $84.3b
	Total Net TIC Flows, Aug  Survey: —  Prior: $43.8b
10/16 – 10/18	Monthly Budget Statement, Sep  Survey: $83.0b  Prior: $119.1b

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Aug  Survey: —  Prior: -1.17b
	CPI NSA MoM, Sep  Survey: -0.20% Prior: -0.10%
	CPI YoY, Sep  Survey: 2.10% Prior: 1.90%
	Consumer Price Index, Sep  Survey: 136.6  Prior: 136.8

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230