Commentaires matinaux

News headlines

U.S. Futures Rise as Stocks Mixed; Dollar Edges Up: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures rose on Monday while stocks drifted in Europe and declined in Asia as investors struggled to interpret the latest developments in the trade rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. Treasuries and European bonds slipped.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures up as investors shrug off fresh trade jitters (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main index were slightly higher on Monday, as investors shrugged off reports that Washington is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

Oil Set for Quarterly Loss as Saudi Strike Offset by Demand Fear (Bloomberg) Oil headed for its worst quarter since late last year as fears over the global economy and fuel demand overshadowed this month’s unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities.

On U.S. delisting threat, China says ‘decoupling’ would harm both sides (Reuters) China warned on Monday of instability in international markets from any “decoupling” of China and the United States, after sources said the Trump administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

Third quarter could mark turning point in U.S. profit cycle (Reuters) As investors prepare for U.S. corporations to report financial results next month, they could look past recent sluggish growth and find comfort as earnings look set to rebound after the third quarter.

Morgan Stanley turns bearish on EM currencies (Reuters) Morgan Stanley said on Monday it had turned bearish on emerging market currencies and entered a long position in U.S. dollar-South African rand as well as buying five-year credit default swaps for Brazil and Colombia.

Households helped to limit hit to UK economy as it shrank in second quarter – ONS (Reuters) Households helped to limit the damage to Britain’s economy as it shrank in the second quarter ahead of Brexit, according to new data that also showed their financial health was less fragile than previously thought.

Trump officials play down reports of China investment limits (BNN) The Trump administration has issued a partial — and qualified — denial to the revelation that it is discussing imposing limits on U.S. investments in Chinese companies and financial markets as China vowed to continue opening its markets to foreign investment.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.156% at 130-06, S&P 500 futures are up 0.31% at 2973, Crude oil futures are down -1.07% at $55.31, Gold futures are down -0.96% at $1492, DXY is up 0.19% at 99.296, CAD/USD is down -0.04% at 0.7552.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.581%	2 Year	1.642%
5 Year	1.414%	5 Year	1.572%
10 Year	1.379%	10 Year	1.692%
30 Year	1.562%	30 Year	2.141%

US Economic Data

09:45 AM	MNI Chicago PMI, Sep  Survey: 50.0  Prior: 50.4
10:30 AM	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Sep  Survey: 1.0  Prior: 2.7

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Industrial Product Price MoM, Aug  Survey: -0.50%  Prior: -0.30%
	Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Aug  Survey: -1.50%  Prior: 1.20%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading lower, yields2-3bps higher, 10Y 1.72% (+3bps), on avg volume in TY futures (~330k).  August Personal Income/Spending and PCE on deck, U Michigan sentiment at 10:00am.  Bunds/gilts paring gains despite Euro area confidence dropping to six year low and BOE Saunders saying rate cuts may still be needed with Brexit deal. GOCs lower in line with tsys, 10s30s 2bps wider yest after long HQ 55 deal, BOC switch operation.

News headlines

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb, Treasuries Slip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. futures advanced with stocks in Europe while Treasuries edged lower before a key inflation report in the world’s largest economy. The pound weakened for a third day.

Shares rise as trade optimism muffles impeachment noise (Reuters) World shares erased losses on Friday, buoyed by a wave of optimism that U.S.-China trade tensions might be easing as markets largely brushed off concerns about possible impeachment moves against U.S. President Donald Trump.

Futures tick higher on trade hopes (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Friday, as U.S.-China trade optimism boosted investor sentiment.

Oil Slides After Report of Partial Saudi Cease-Fire in Yemen (Bloomberg) Oil fell after a report that Saudi Arabia has moved to impose a partial cease-fire in Yemen, bringing hope of easing tensions in the Middle East.

China’s top diplomat says Beijing willing to buy more U.S. products (Reuters) China’s top diplomat said on Thursday that China was willing to buy more U.S. products, and said trade talks would yield results if both sides “take more enthusiastic measures” to show goodwill and reduce “pessimistic language” in their trade dispute.

In counterweight to China, EU, Japan sign deal to link Asia (Reuters) The European Union and Japan signed an infrastructure deal on Friday to coordinate transport, energy and digital projects linking Europe and Asia, seeking an alternative to Chinese largesse that has raised suspicion in Brussels and Tokyo.

Oil shipping rates soar as U.S. supertanker sanctions rattle crude trade (Reuters) Key oil freight rates from the Middle East to Asia rocketed as much as 28% on Friday in a global oil shipping market spooked by United States sanctions on units of Chinese giant COSCO for alleged involvement in ferrying crude out of Iran.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.228% at 129-32, S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% at 2987.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.87% at $55.92, Gold futures are down -0.96% at $1500.6, DXY is up 0.04% at 99.17, CAD/USD is down -0.08% at 0.7544.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.59%	2 Year	1.678%
5 Year	1.418%	5 Year	1.606%
10 Year	1.381%	10 Year	1.718%
30 Year	1.561%	30 Year	2.164%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Personal Income, Aug  Survey: 0.40%  Prior: 0.10%
	Personal Spending, Aug  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.60%
	PCE Deflator MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.10%  Prior: 0.20%
	PCE Deflator YoY, Aug  Survey: 1.40%  Prior: 1.40%
	PCE Core Deflator MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.20%
	PCE Core Deflator YoY, Aug  Survey: 1.80%  Prior: 1.60%
	Durable Goods Orders, Aug P  Survey: -1.10%  Prior: 2.00%
	Durables Ex Transportation, Aug P  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: -0.40%
	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Aug P  Survey: 0.00%  Prior: 0.20%
	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Aug P  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: -0.60%
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Sep F  Survey: 92.1  Prior: 92.0

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading higher, 10Y 1.71% (-2.5bps), prices pulling back since uptick in Asia trade which saw 10Y trade below 1.70%. No reaction to as expected Q2 GDP, core prices higher (1.9% vs 1.7%). Equity futures higher, S&P +6, crude lower for 3rd day 56.40. Fed 14-day term repo operation saw $72.8bln in bunds for $60bln offering. Core Euro bonds mixed on now news, bunds lower as equity futures move higher. GOCs higher in line with tsys, 10s30s 2bps wider, even as 2s10s has moved back to recent narrows -20bps. BOC switch operation buying back off the run longs for Dec 51s for $400mln max.

News headlines

U.S. Futures, Europe Stocks Climb With Treasuries: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures edged higher with Asian stocks on Thursday while European shares jumped as investors awaited the next developments in a week dominated by political dramas and a lack of clarity over trade. In a sign of the mixed sentiment, Treasuries also climbed, continuing a choppy few days.

Futures rise on U.S.-China trade optimism (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main index were higher on Thursday, as sentiment was lifted by positive comments from China on the trade talks with the United States.

China says in close communication with U.S. over October trade talks (Reuters) China and the United States are still discussing details about upcoming trade talks in October, making preparations to ensure “positive progress” is made during the negotiations, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday.

U.S. Fed should target repo rate to reduce market volatility: ex-Fed officials (Reuters) Recent money market volatility shows the Federal Reserve needs to retool how it manages an essential part of the financial system to minimize disruptive market swings that pose risks to the economy, two former Fed officials said on Thursday.

BOJ’s Kuroda warns of overseas risks, signals readiness to adjust policy (Reuters) Japan’s central bank governor signaled on Thursday readiness to ease monetary policy further, vowing to guide policy appropriately “without any preset conditions in mind”.

Oil Steady as Investors Weigh Trade Hope Against Saudi Recovery (Bloomberg) Oil was steady as investors weighed prospects of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war against indications Saudi Arabia is recovering quicker than expected from the biggest attacks ever on its energy industry.

Its leash lengthened, China’s yuan flirts with trade war role (Reuters) China, having let the yuan cross the once sacred red line of 7 per dollar, will allow its currency to fall further and may even risk U.S. anger by using it as a bargaining chip in already thorny trade talks, market participants believe.

In Michigan steel towns, tariffs meant to revive industry cost jobs (Reuters) Some steelworkers who cheered U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign steel last year are now being laid off, an unintended consequence of his America First policy as United States Steel Corp (X.N) reacts to sagging demand from automakers reeling from higher steel prices.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.06% at 130-01, S&P 500 futures are up 0.21% at 2992.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.09% at $56.54, Gold futures are down -0.04% at $1511.7, DXY is up 0.03% at 99.064, CAD/USD is down -0.2% at 0.7551.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.584%	2 Year	1.676%
5 Year	1.423%	5 Year	1.6%
10 Year	1.389%	10 Year	1.715%
30 Year	1.558%	30 Year	2.163%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	GDP Annualized QoQ, 2Q T  Survey: 2.00% Actual: 2.00% Prior: 2.00%
	Personal Consumption, 2Q T  Survey: 4.70% Actual: 4.60% Prior: 4.70%
	GDP Price Index, 2Q T  Survey: 2.40% Actual: 2.40% Prior: 2.40%
	Core PCE QoQ, 2Q T  Survey: 1.70% Actual: 1.90% Prior: 1.70%
	Wholesale Inventories MoM, Aug P  Survey: 0.10% Actual: 0.40% Prior: 0.20%
	Initial Jobless Claims, Sep 21  Survey: 212k Actual: 213k Prior: 208k
	Continuing Claims, Sep 14  Survey: 1666k Actual: 1650k Prior: 1661k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sep 22  Survey: —  Prior: 62.7
10:00 AM	Pending Home Sales MoM, Aug  Survey: 1.00%  Prior: -2.50%
11:00 AM	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Sep  Survey: -4  Prior: -6

Canadian Economic Data

06:00 AM

CFIB Business Barometer, Sep  Survey: — Actual: 59.3 Prior: 60.6

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230