Commentaires

11/05/2016

par admin | Mai 11, 2016 | commentaires

Market update

Tsys little changed in range bound session , avg volume in TY futures (278k), US 10Y 1.77%. The USD is lower for the first time in a week, Euro stoxx are down 1.0%, led by 2.0% decline in banks. Core Euro bonds slightly lower, UK gilts giving up early gains on lower than exp increase in March industrial prod. Order book for ultra long 50Y from Apsin said to exceed E10bln at MS + 250. Focus in the US today will be on $23bln 10Y auction at 1:00PM as well as IG corp supply after ~$24bln priced yest including $7bln multi tranche offering from Abbvie (Baa2/A-) & $5bln from Kraft (Baa3/BBB-). Issuance so far this week in the US has already surpassed the YTD avg of $35bln after two trading days. GOCs higher led by 10s, spds 1bp narrower vs tsys, 10Y close to 1.30% resist from mid April. Provi spds 0.5bps wider, supply a possibility yet with GOC yields and spds fairly tight, there is likely to be only lukewarm reception to a 10Y deal , thou with 10s30s steepening into June 1st extension a long deal might have better success at this point.

News headlines

Europe Stocks Drop With U.S. Futures as Banks Slip; Pound Falls (Bloomberg) European equities fell for the first time in three days and U.S. stock index futures declined, as banks and energy producers slid. Shares of raw-materials companies rallied as metals prices climbed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its biggest drop in a week. Industrial metals from aluminum to zinc climbed as Glencore Plc forecast demand to exceed supply. Soybeans, silver and gold also gained, while crude pared declines before U.S. inventories data. The pound weakened after disappointing U.K. industrial production data. Spain is selling 50-year bonds, amid a flurry of debt offerings. A Paris-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Brazilian shares rose before the Senate votes on whether to impeach President Dilma Rousseff.
UK factory output records biggest annual fall since 2013 (Reuters) British factory output recorded its biggest annual fall in nearly three years in March, as shutdowns in the steel industry due to global overcapacity led broad-based declines, official figures showed on Wednesday. Manufacturing in March was 1.9 percent lower than a year earlier, the steepest decline since May 2013, the Office for National Statistics said and in line with economists’ predictions in a Reuters poll. In March alone, manufacturing output edged up by 0.1 percent, slightly less than forecast, after dropping by 0.9 percent in February.
Pound Bears Return as Industrial Data Add to U.K. Economy Woes (Bloomberg) Pound bears revived their attack as industrial production data added to signs that problems are mounting for the economy as Britain heads toward a referendum on whether to end its membership of the European Union. Sterling weakened for the first time in three days versus the euro as figures from the Office for National Statistics showed output rose 0.3 percent, less than the 0.5 percent gain predicted in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Factories also increased production by less than forecast. The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and releases its latest economic and inflation forecasts on Thursday.
Oilsands production north of Fort McMurray will restart in coming days when ‘safe to do so’ (Financial Post) Production will resume at oilsands projects north of Fort McMurray in the coming days and “short weeks” after an out-of-control wildfire raged through the area, though there is still no timeline for projects south of the city returning to normal operations. “Operations will only restart when it is absolutely safe to do so,” Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said Tuesday after a meeting with the CEOs of oilsands, pipeline and power companies with assets around Fort McMurray.
Oil dips on Canada output prospects, record U.S. stocks (Reuters) Crude prices fell on Wednesday as oil sands production in Canada restarted after forced closures due to wildfires, and as already record-high inventories especially in the United States grew. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were down 28 cents at $45.24 per barrel at 0909 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 were down 44 cents at $44.22 a barrel.
Competition Bureau seeks Canadians’ opinions on BCE proposal to buy Manitoba Telecom Services (Financial Post) The Competition Bureau is asking Canadians for their thoughts on BCE’s proposed deal to buy Manitoba Telecom Services. The federal regulator is reviewing the proposed takeover as well as a side agreement that would see BCE sell a portion of the MTS wireless business to Telus (TSX:T). The bureau says comments can be shared with the regulator through its website.
Brazil Impeachment Vote May Spell Rousseff’s Last Day on Job (Bloomberg) This Wednesday may be the last day in office for President Dilma Rousseff, as Brazil’s Senate gears up for a vote that would force her out and into an impeachment trial she appears unlikely to survive. The Senate debate is scheduled to last 10 hours and end with a vote around 7 p.m. local time, the chamber’s speaker Renan Calheiros said. Surveys by the country’s major newspapers show the opposition has 50 or 51 votes, more than the simple majority of the 81 seats necessary to put her on impeachment trial.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.0119% at 130-26, S&P 500 futures are down -0.11% at 2075.25, Crude oil futures are up 0.18% at $44.74, Gold futures are up 1.11% at $1278.9, DXY is down -0.33% at 93.977.

US Economic Data

7:00 AM: MBA Mortgage, 0.4% (prior -3.4%)
2:00 PM: Monthly Budget Statement, April, est. 107.0b (prior 156.7b)

Canadian Economic Data

There is no major economic data for today

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

10/05/2016

par admin | Mai 10, 2016 | commentaires

Market update

Tsys trading lower, curve slightly flatter, US 10Y 1.76 (+1bp), with Euro stoxx higher yet off earlier highs after coming down hard ~7:00AM, the USD index higher for a sixth day, crude up slightly 43.88. The US sells $24bln in 3Y notes at 1:00PM, with the WI 3Y 0.88%, trading close to the 0.89% of the last 3Y sale on April 12th – which was the lowest auction yield since Feb. GOCs higher in line with tsys, provi spds unch after closing 1-2bps wider yest. In corps, Allied Properties (BBBL) issued $150MM 6.5Y 3.934% debs @ 300 OTC (original guidance ~305) which quickly narrowed 5-7 bps in secondary trading, proceeds will be used to fund recent acquisition of several properties in Montreal. Allied last came to market last May with its first 5Y issue @ 270 (now ~240).

News headlines

Global Stocks Rise With Commodities; Yen, Treasuries Decline (Bloomberg) Stocks rose around the world as base metals clawed back some of Monday’s losses. The yen and Treasuries declined. The MSCI All Country World Index’s 0.2 percent gain was its biggest in a week as Credit Suisse Group AG boosted European banks and Japanese shares rose. Nickel led a rebound in a Bloomberg measure of raw-materials prices as Japan’s largest supplier forecast a widening shortage. Philippine’s peso jumped the most in seven weeks after Rodrigo Duterte called for “healing” after claiming victory in a presidential election and trading Europe signaled Brazilian markets would rebound as the move to oust President Dilma Rousseff appeared back on track.
Yen Falls a Second Day as Japan Reiterates Ability to Intervene (Bloomberg) The yen weakened for a second day after Japan’s Finance Minister said the government can intervene to stabilize foreign-exchange markets if necessary. Japan’s currency fell against all its Group-of-10 peers after Taro Aso, speaking in parliament in Tokyo Tuesday, reiterated that the U.S. doesn’t object to the Asian nation’s policy. His comments came a day after he said “it’s natural that Japan has means to intervene” in the foreign-exchange markets.
French growth seen cooling in second-quarter, full-year outlook brighter (Reuters) French growth will slow in the second quarter after a strong start to the year, the central bank forecast on Tuesday, but surveys showing a pick up in industrial activity and investment means Paris’s full-year target still looks within reach. The socialist government has banked on a growth rate of 1.5 percent this year to start making a significant dent in unemployment, which at over 10 percent stands in the way of President Francois Hollande’s bid for a second term next year.
Dead-of-Night Reversal Puts Brazil Impeachment Back on Track (Bloomberg) The drive to oust President Dilma Rousseff is back on track after the head of the lower house reversed a decision that had earlier threatened to throw the entire impeachment process into chaos. Lawmaker Waldir Maranhao released a statement in the dead of night revoking his own call to annul impeachment sessions in the lower house. That puts the Senate back in the spotlight, with a vote on whether to put the unpopular president on trial still slated for Wednesday. If successful, it would temporarily remove her from office. Rousseff is charged with illegally using state banks to plug a hole in the budget.
Exclusive: Say goodbye to OPEC, Russia’s Sechin says (Reuters) Internal differences are killing OPEC and its ability to influence the markets has all but evaporated, top Russian oil executive Igor Sechin told Reuters in some of his harshest remarks ever about the oil cartel. Russia, which has been hit hard by the oil price collapse, was flirting with the idea of cooperating with OPEC in recent months until tensions between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iran ruined a global deal to freeze output.
CMHC continues to reduce its exposure to the housing market (Financial Post) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the Crown corporation that controls a majority of the mortgage default insurance market in the country, continues to reduce its exposure to the housing market. In its annual reported released Monday, CMHC said its mortgage loan insurance-in-force decreased to $526 billion last year from $543 billion at year-end 2014. It is legislative maximum $600 billion, which had been approaching in previous years.
Eurozone ministers to examine how to ease Greece’s debt burden (TheGuardian) Eurozone finance ministers have promised to examine how to ease Greece’s colossal debt burden, with writing off bad loans remaining off the table. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chair of eurozone finance ministers, said he was hopeful of getting an agreement on Greek debt management in talks on 24 May. Ahead of that meeting, technical experts have been asked to examine how to reduce Greece’s crushing debt burden, which is currently about 180% of the country’s annual economic output

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.0358% at 130-27, S&P 500 futures are up 0.38% at 2062, Crude oil futures are up 0.39% at $43.61, Gold futures are down -0.09% at $1265.4, DXY is up 0.08% at 94.201.

US Economic Data

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey, April, 93.6, est. 93.0 (prior 92.6)
10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories, m/m, March, est. 0.1% (prior -0.5%)
- Wholesale Trade Sales, m/m, March, est. 0.5% (prior -0.2%)
- Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, March, est. 5450 (prior 5445)

Canadian Economic Data

There is no major economic data for today

Disclosure and Disclaimer

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, David Leclair-Legault

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

09/05/2016

par admin | Mai 9, 2016 | commentaires

Market update

Tsys trading higher , US 10Y 1.77 (-1bp), curve unch. Euro stocks higher, oil back to unch after reaching to $46 in early trade. Light data calendar so mkt will focus on Tsys & corp supply. Core Euro bonds mixed, German 10Y bund maintaining gains despite better than exp Factory orders as well as heavy sov supply this week – ~E22bln from the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Italy & Ireland. The US auctions $62bln in 3, 10 & 30Y bonds this week – Japanese FX intervention and the return from Golden week should be supportive. US corp supply could reach $50bln including HY deal from Dell & possibly Apple. US IG Credit index set new YTD tights early last week before drifting wider (BUSC <index>). GOCs higher in line with tsys to start the week, 10Y 1.355%. GOCs rallied across the curve last week, led by the 8Y sector (CTD ), yields 12-20 bps lower on the week thou Friday’s weaker employment data was met with profit taking. Ont spds slightly tighter (0.5bps) – Ont 26s/46s trading up this morn @ 91 & 102, spds widened ~5bps last week , Alta/Ont 46 @20bps 1.5bps wider on the week.

News headlines

European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (Bloomberg) European stocks rallied from a one-month low, shaking off a drag from Chinese trade data that pushed Shanghai shares lower along with industrial metals. Oil gained, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production. Apart from mining companies, all of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced. Copper fell to its lowest in almost a month after imports into China slipped from a record, while iron ore tumbled following an increase in stockpiles at Chinese ports. Oil climbed above $45 a barrel in New York and gold retreated as a gauge of dollar strength rose for a fifth day. Corporate bond sales in euros may be “unusually busy” this week after some companies held off on offerings due to earnings blackouts and national holidays, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters) The dollar hit a 10-day high against the yen on Monday after Japan’s finance minister said outright that Tokyo was ready to intervene in the currency market if yen moves are volatile enough to hurt trade and the economy. In a mixed day for stock markets, the yen’s falls helped generate some limited gains for the Nikkei, while a strong batch of industrial orders numbers out of Germany helped European shares recover from their worst week since mid-February.
German Factory Orders Rebounded in March as Exports Gained (Bloomberg) German factory orders picked up in March as strong global trade helped offset a lull in domestic demand. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, advanced 1.9 percent from the prior month, when they fell a revised 0.8 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The reading, which is typically volatile, was the strongest since June last year and compares with economists’ forecast for a 0.6 percent increase. Orders climbed 1.7 percent from a year earlier.
China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters) China stocks fell sharply again on Monday, reaching eight-month lows, as investors saw hopes for a strong economic recovery fade and worried about fresh regulatory curbs on speculation. Following the market’s nearly 3 percent slump on Friday, China’s blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 fell 2.1 percent, to 3,065.62, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC lost 2.8 percent, to 2,832.11 points. China April trade data, released on Sunday, doused investor hopes of a sustainable economic recovery, with both exports and imports falling more than expected.
Bank of Japan minutes reveal sharp split over negative rates (MarketWatch) Some Bank of Japan officials expressed worries over signs of “adverse effects” of negative interest rates at their March policy meeting, underlining a sharp split among central bankers over the policy measure. Some of the BOJ’s nine policy board members said the step to impose a charge on some deposits held by commercial banks had added to “anxiety among financial institutions and depositors” and made the central bank’s policy “difficult to understand,” according to the March 14-15 meeting minutes released Monday.
Even China’s Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (Bloomberg) China’s leading Communist Party mouthpiece acknowledged the risks of a build-up of debt that is worrying the world and said the nation needed to face up to its nonperforming loans. High leverage is the “original sin” that leads to risks in the foreign-exchange market, stocks, bonds, real estate and bank credit, the People’s Daily said in a full-page interview with an unnamed “authoritative person” starting on page one and filling the second page on Monday.
Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (Bloomberg) Just when investors thought they’d finally made a good call in the currency market, the dollar’s advance messed it up. The U.S. currency on Friday capped its best week all year versus its major peers, shortly after hedge funds finally switched to betting on dollar declines, known as going short. That’s not the only wrong move foreign-exchange managers have made this year — an index tracking their returns shows they’ve failed to turn a profit in 2016.

Overnight markets

Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.1676% at 130-24, S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 2053.5, Crude oil futures are up 0.22% at $44.76, Gold futures are down -1.45% at $1275.2, DXY is up 0.07% at 93.952.

US Economic Data