Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys higher, yields 2-4bps lower, bull flattener led by the 10Y 1.81% (-4bps), above avg volume in TY futures (435k).  S&P futures slightly lower (-3.5), crude -1.5%.  Aug IP/Cap Utilization, FOMC decision tomorrow.  The latest survey by JP Morgan showed US Treasury shorts fell 10pts to the lowest since May.  GOCs higher, underperforming the rally in the US, 10Y 1.45% (-2.5bps). July Man Sales -1.3% vs -0.1% exp – auto sales down 4.7% m/m.

News headlines

S&P 500 Futures Slip With Europe Shares; Oil Drops: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. index futures declined with European stocks while Treasuries continued higher as investors weighed the fallout from a drone attack on one of the world’s biggest oil facilities and the record surge in crude prices that followed.

Oil sheds gains, stocks dip as Fed comes into focus (Reuters) Oil shed some of its gains on Tuesday as the United States raised the possibility of releasing crude reserves, while stocks inched lower as investors waited for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

TSX futures down on lower crude prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Tuesday after oil prices pulled back from previous session gains.

Oil market gripped by uncertainty over lost Saudi production (BNN) Oil markets are grappling with uncertainty over how long it will take Saudi Arabia to restore output after the devastating attacks that knocked out five per cent of global crude supply.

With Trump trade war a threat, Fed is set to cut rates again (BNN) For a second straight time, the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates this week to try to protect the economy from the consequences of a global slowdown and President Donald Trump’s trade war with China.

Trade talks seen as unlikely to mend U.S.-China divide (Reuters) U.S. and Chinese officials will restart trade talks at the end of this week, but any agreement the world’s largest economies carve out is expected to be a superficial fix.

U.S. value fund managers betting shift to value stocks won’t last (Reuters) The massive U.S. market rotation into value stocks over the last two weeks is finally giving value fund managers a reason to be hopeful after years of underperformance.

Size matters. Big U.S. farms get even bigger amid China trade war (Reuters) As the 2018 harvest approached, North Dakota farmer Mike Appert had a problem – too many soybeans and nowhere to put them. Selling was a bad option. Prices were near decade lows as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China weighed heavily on the market. Temporary storage would only buy him a little bit of time, particularly in an area where cold weather can damage crops stored in plastic bags.

FOREX-Geopolitical risks push dollar to recent highs; crown, Aussie sink (Reuters) The dollar firmed within sight of a recent two-year high on Tuesday on the back of ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East with investors looking forward to an interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank on Wednesday.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.194% at 129-10, S&P 500 futures are down -0.08% at 2999, Crude oil futures are down -1.35% at $62.05, Gold futures are up 0.01% at $1511.7, DXY is down -0.01% at 98.599, CAD/USD is up 0.13% at 0.7542.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.61%	2 Year	1.733%
5 Year	1.467%	5 Year	1.668%
10 Year	1.446%	10 Year	1.81%
30 Year	1.642%	30 Year	2.28%

US Economic Data

09:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: -0.20%
	Capacity Utilization, Aug  Survey: 77.60%  Prior: 77.50%
10:00 AM	NAHB Housing Market Index, Sep  Survey: 66  Prior: 66
04:00 PM	Net Long-term TIC Flows, Jul  Survey: —  Prior: $99.1b
	Total Net TIC Flows, Jul  Survey: —  Prior: $1.7b

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM

Manufacturing Sales MoM, Jul  Survey: -0.10%  Prior: -1.20%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher on FTQ after this weekend’s developments in the middle east, 10Y 1.835% (-6bps), heavy volume in TY futures (565k). Brent crude +11% , 66.70 after surging to $72 in reaction to strike on Saudi refining facility responsible for 5% of global oil supply. Trump will release oil from the US SPR alleviating some of the damage.  Trump, Pompeo warning Iran over the attacks, saying it must be held accountable. Gold higher, S&P futures -0.30% paring earlier losses of ~1.0% .  GOCs lagging the rally, yields 2-4bps lower led by the 10Y (1.47%). Busy data week with Aug CPI Wed, July Retail Sales Friday.

News headlines

Saudi Attack Spurs Shift to Havens as Crude Soars: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Oil surged and havens climbed after a strike on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s crude production heightened geopolitical risk. U.S. futures slipped with European stocks, while shares in Asia were mixed.

Futures lower after attack on Saudi facilities (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Monday after a weekend attack on crude facilities in Saudi Arabia disrupted global oil supplies and fueled worries over the impact of an oil shock on economic growth.

Biggest oil price surge since 1991 as ‘locked and loaded’ U.S. points finger at Iran for attack (Reuters) An attack on Saudi Arabia that shut 5% of global crude output caused the biggest surge in oil prices since 1991, after U.S. officials blamed Iran and President Donald Trump said Washington was “locked and loaded” to retaliate.

China’s economy slows again, adding pressure for policy action (BNN) China’s slowdown is deepening just as risks for the global economy mount, piling pressure on the authorities to do more to support growth.

Exclusive: Greece seeks new mining jobs, higher royalties in talks with Eldorado (Reuters) Greece is in talks with Canada’s Eldorado Gold to secure higher royalties from its mining development projects and new jobs, Energy Minister Kostis Hatzidakis said on Monday.

Gold climbs 1% as attacks on Saudi facilities spur demand (Reuters) Gold rose more than 1% on Monday after an attack on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia inflamed worries over the stability of the Middle East, driving investors to seek refuge in assets seen as a haven from risk.

Copper drifts lower on fragile China data, zinc gains (Reuters) Copper slipped on Monday after weak Chinese data fuelled worries about demand, but zinc hit a 1-1/2 month peak after a mine suspension.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.365% at 129-02, S&P 500 futures are down -0.33% at 2998.5, Crude oil futures are up 10.03% at $60.35, Gold futures are up 0.83% at $1512, DXY is up 0.19% at 98.445, CAD/USD is down -0.25% at 0.7546.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.617%	2 Year	1.753%
5 Year	1.478%	5 Year	1.699%
10 Year	1.466%	10 Year	1.84%
30 Year	1.675%	30 Year	2.305%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM

Empire Manufacturing, Sep  Survey: 4.0  Prior: 4.8

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Jul  Survey: —  Prior: -3.98b
09:00 AM	Existing Home Sales MoM, Aug  Survey: 1.30%  Prior: 3.50%
10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Sep 13  Survey: —  Prior: 56.5

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsy yields 2-4bps higher, 10Y 1.83 (+5bps) after strong Aug Retail Sales (0.4% vs 0.2%), TY futures at new lows for the month, prices having almost completely retraced the Aug-Sep rally. Tsy yield curve continuing steeper with 3M10Y +3bps at 15bp inverted from late August low -55bps. Bund yields 12-15bps higher since yesterday’s ECB stimulus announcement and whipsaw reaction in bunds, adding to pressure on global yields. GOC yields 1-2bps higher after US data, lagging the move in the US. Active day for primary issuance including $600mln Alta 50s, $300mln Montreal 29s  $500mln Gibson Energy HY 10Y @ 217 which closed 210 mid.

News headlines

Stocks Set for Weekly Gain as Bonds Extend Retreat: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures rose with Asian and European stocks as shares globally headed for a third weekly gain thanks to easing trade fears and a new round of central bank stimulus. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar slipped.

Futures rise on hint of progress in U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Friday as investors cheered signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

Oil Set for Weekly Drop as IEA Warns OPEC Faces Looming Surplus (Bloomberg) Oil is set for its biggest weekly decline in nearly two months as the International Energy Agency warned of a looming supply glut.

Trump trade-war aid sows frustration in farm country (Reuters) The U.S. government is paying Texas cotton farmer J. Walt Hagood $145 an acre for losses related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. But Minnesota soybean farmer Betsy Jensen will get just $35 an acre.

China to exempt U.S. pork, soybeans from additional tariffs: Xinhua (Reuters) China will exempt some agricultural products from additional tariffs on U.S. goods, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said Friday, in the latest sign of easing Sino-U.S. tensions before a new rounds of talks aimed at curbing a bruising trade war.

Time to buy? Argentina’s bargain basement stocks start to gain appeal (Reuters) Argentina’s stocks, which crashed last month to multi-year lows, are starting to lure in hardy investors tempted by bargain basement prices, even as the country teeters on the brink of default ahead of a general election next month.

Democrats in presidential debate hint at no swift end to China tariffs (Reuters) Democratic presidential hopefuls criticized President Donald Trump’s trade war with China but gave no hint they would work toward a quick resolution if elected, pledging during their debate on Thursday to hold Beijing accountable for “corrupt” practices.

Shopify helps power TSX to new all-time high (BNN) Canadian stocks climbed into uncharted territory Thursday.

Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down 0% at 129-14, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 3022.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.05% at $55.06, Gold futures are up 0.48% at $1514.7, DXY is down -0.3% at 98.017, CAD/USD is up 0.05% at 0.7566.

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.612%	2 Year	1.726%
5 Year	1.472%	5 Year	1.652%
10 Year	1.455%	10 Year	1.794%
30 Year	1.674%	30 Year	2.274%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Import Price Index MoM, Aug  Survey: -0.50%  Prior: 0.20%
	Import Price Index YoY, Aug  Survey: -2.00%  Prior: -1.80%
	Retail Sales Advance MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.70%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Aug  Survey: 0.10%  Prior: 1.00%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Aug  Survey: 0.20%  Prior: 0.90%
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Sep P  Survey: 90.80  Prior: 89.80
	Business Inventories, Jul  Survey: 0.30%  Prior: 0.00%

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230