Commentaires
01/10/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading broadly lower on heavy volume (480k TY), yields 3-6bps higher, 10Y 1.73% (+6bps), yield curve bear steepening. me in TY futures (~330k). Weakest Japanese 10Y auction in three years pressuring global bonds, JGB futures largest one-day decline since July 2016. Chicago Fed Evans reiterated he is not in favor of a third rate cut , while mon policy is ‘appropriate’. GOCs lower, steeper out to 10s, with 10s30s flattening for a second day, ~3bps since Friday consistent with m/e buying in longs which showed up mid aft yesterday. July GDP on deck (0.1% exp after 0.2% June)
News headlines
Bonds Sink on Weak Japan Sale; U.S. Futures Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Treasuries joined a retreat across sovereign bonds on Tuesday after a weak debt auction in Japan triggered a sell-off that gradually spread across the world. U.S. equity futures advanced with shares in Asia, while European stocks slipped amid disappointing factory and inflation data.
TSX futures gain as oil prices recover (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday, as oil prices rebounded on reports of lower output from the world’s largest oil producers.
Oil Rebounds After Worst Quarter of 2019, Yet Demand Fears Weigh (Bloomberg) Oil rose after its biggest quarterly slump of the year, yet ongoing concerns that a faltering global economy will erode demand continued to weigh on the market.
WTO sees sharp drop in global trade growth amid tariff wars (BNN) The World Trade Organization cut its global trade growth forecast for this year to the weakest level in a decade, warning that further rounds of tariffs in an environment of heightened uncertainty could spark a “destructive cycle of recrimination.”
Fed can keep rates on hold for now, raise them later: Evans (Reuters) The Federal Reserve has set monetary policy to where it can deliver on its 2% inflation goal and there is scope to raise rates slightly over the next few years if the economy continues to grow, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Tuesday.
Major U.S. investors have billions at risk in Chinese stocks (Reuters) Major U.S. fund managers have tens of billions of dollars at stake in some of the most popular Chinese stocks on Wall Street, exposing them to potential losses should the White House move to delist Chinese firms from U.S. exchanges.
Brexit vote reprise? Money flows out of UK property funds (Reuters) Britain’s top property investment funds have shed almost 10% of their combined assets this year as investors fret about the impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.348% at 129-28, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 2983.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.67% at $54.43, Gold futures are up 0.05% at $1473.7, DXY is up 0.13% at 99.503, CAD/USD is up 0.27% at 0.7533.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.604% | 2 Year | 1.656% |
| 5 Year | 1.438% | 5 Year | 1.596% |
| 10 Year | 1.416% | 10 Year | 1.727% |
| 30 Year | 1.576% | 30 Year | 2.175% |
US Economic Data
| 09:45 AM | Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Sep F Survey: 51.0 Prior: 51.0 |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing, Sep Survey: 50.0 Prior: 49.1 |
| ISM Employment, Sep Survey: — Prior: 47.4 | |
| ISM Prices Paid, Sep Survey: 50.5 Prior: 46.0 | |
| ISM New Orders, Sep Survey: — Prior: 47.2 | |
| Construction Spending MoM, Aug Survey: 0.50% Prior: 0.10% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | GDP MoM, Jul Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.20% |
| GDP YoY, Jul Survey: 1.40% Prior: 1.50% | |
| 09:30 AM | Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI, Sep Survey: — Prior: 49.1 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
30/09/2019
News headlines
U.S. Futures Rise as Stocks Mixed; Dollar Edges Up: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures rose on Monday while stocks drifted in Europe and declined in Asia as investors struggled to interpret the latest developments in the trade rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. Treasuries and European bonds slipped.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures up as investors shrug off fresh trade jitters (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main index were slightly higher on Monday, as investors shrugged off reports that Washington is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.
Oil Set for Quarterly Loss as Saudi Strike Offset by Demand Fear (Bloomberg) Oil headed for its worst quarter since late last year as fears over the global economy and fuel demand overshadowed this month’s unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities.
On U.S. delisting threat, China says ‘decoupling’ would harm both sides (Reuters) China warned on Monday of instability in international markets from any “decoupling” of China and the United States, after sources said the Trump administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.
Third quarter could mark turning point in U.S. profit cycle (Reuters) As investors prepare for U.S. corporations to report financial results next month, they could look past recent sluggish growth and find comfort as earnings look set to rebound after the third quarter.
Morgan Stanley turns bearish on EM currencies (Reuters) Morgan Stanley said on Monday it had turned bearish on emerging market currencies and entered a long position in U.S. dollar-South African rand as well as buying five-year credit default swaps for Brazil and Colombia.
Households helped to limit hit to UK economy as it shrank in second quarter – ONS (Reuters) Households helped to limit the damage to Britain’s economy as it shrank in the second quarter ahead of Brexit, according to new data that also showed their financial health was less fragile than previously thought.
Trump officials play down reports of China investment limits (BNN) The Trump administration has issued a partial — and qualified — denial to the revelation that it is discussing imposing limits on U.S. investments in Chinese companies and financial markets as China vowed to continue opening its markets to foreign investment.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.156% at 130-06, S&P 500 futures are up 0.31% at 2973, Crude oil futures are down -1.07% at $55.31, Gold futures are down -0.96% at $1492, DXY is up 0.19% at 99.296, CAD/USD is down -0.04% at 0.7552.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.581% | 2 Year | 1.642% |
| 5 Year | 1.414% | 5 Year | 1.572% |
| 10 Year | 1.379% | 10 Year | 1.692% |
| 30 Year | 1.562% | 30 Year | 2.141% |
US Economic Data
| 09:45 AM | MNI Chicago PMI, Sep Survey: 50.0 Prior: 50.4 |
| 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Sep Survey: 1.0 Prior: 2.7 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Industrial Product Price MoM, Aug Survey: -0.50% Prior: -0.30% |
| Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Aug Survey: -1.50% Prior: 1.20% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
27/09/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading lower, yields2-3bps higher, 10Y 1.72% (+3bps), on avg volume in TY futures (~330k). August Personal Income/Spending and PCE on deck, U Michigan sentiment at 10:00am. Bunds/gilts paring gains despite Euro area confidence dropping to six year low and BOE Saunders saying rate cuts may still be needed with Brexit deal. GOCs lower in line with tsys, 10s30s 2bps wider yest after long HQ 55 deal, BOC switch operation.
News headlines
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb, Treasuries Slip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. futures advanced with stocks in Europe while Treasuries edged lower before a key inflation report in the world’s largest economy. The pound weakened for a third day.
Shares rise as trade optimism muffles impeachment noise (Reuters) World shares erased losses on Friday, buoyed by a wave of optimism that U.S.-China trade tensions might be easing as markets largely brushed off concerns about possible impeachment moves against U.S. President Donald Trump.
Futures tick higher on trade hopes (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged up on Friday, as U.S.-China trade optimism boosted investor sentiment.
Oil Slides After Report of Partial Saudi Cease-Fire in Yemen (Bloomberg) Oil fell after a report that Saudi Arabia has moved to impose a partial cease-fire in Yemen, bringing hope of easing tensions in the Middle East.
China’s top diplomat says Beijing willing to buy more U.S. products (Reuters) China’s top diplomat said on Thursday that China was willing to buy more U.S. products, and said trade talks would yield results if both sides “take more enthusiastic measures” to show goodwill and reduce “pessimistic language” in their trade dispute.
In counterweight to China, EU, Japan sign deal to link Asia (Reuters) The European Union and Japan signed an infrastructure deal on Friday to coordinate transport, energy and digital projects linking Europe and Asia, seeking an alternative to Chinese largesse that has raised suspicion in Brussels and Tokyo.
Oil shipping rates soar as U.S. supertanker sanctions rattle crude trade (Reuters) Key oil freight rates from the Middle East to Asia rocketed as much as 28% on Friday in a global oil shipping market spooked by United States sanctions on units of Chinese giant COSCO for alleged involvement in ferrying crude out of Iran.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.228% at 129-32, S&P 500 futures are up 0.24% at 2987.75, Crude oil futures are down -0.87% at $55.92, Gold futures are down -0.96% at $1500.6, DXY is up 0.04% at 99.17, CAD/USD is down -0.08% at 0.7544.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.59% | 2 Year | 1.678% |
| 5 Year | 1.418% | 5 Year | 1.606% |
| 10 Year | 1.381% | 10 Year | 1.718% |
| 30 Year | 1.561% | 30 Year | 2.164% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Personal Income, Aug Survey: 0.40% Prior: 0.10% |
| Personal Spending, Aug Survey: 0.30% Prior: 0.60% | |
| PCE Deflator MoM, Aug Survey: 0.10% Prior: 0.20% | |
| PCE Deflator YoY, Aug Survey: 1.40% Prior: 1.40% | |
| PCE Core Deflator MoM, Aug Survey: 0.20% Prior: 0.20% | |
| PCE Core Deflator YoY, Aug Survey: 1.80% Prior: 1.60% | |
| Durable Goods Orders, Aug P Survey: -1.10% Prior: 2.00% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Aug P Survey: 0.20% Prior: -0.40% | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Aug P Survey: 0.00% Prior: 0.20% | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Aug P Survey: 0.30% Prior: -0.60% | |
| 10:00 AM | U. of Mich. Sentiment, Sep F Survey: 92.1 Prior: 92.0 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230