Mornings Comments
Available every day before market open01/04/2021
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.357% at 130-31, S&P 500 futures are up 0.43% at 4027.25, Crude oil futures are up 3.87% at $61.45, Gold futures are up 0.75% at $1728.4, DXY is up 0.1% at 93.021, CAD/USD is up 0.14% at 0.7959.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 0.223% | 2 Year | 0.184% |
| 5 Year | 0.969% | 5 Year | 0.972% |
| 10 Year | 1.51% | 10 Year | 1.716% |
| 30 Year | 1.948% | 30 Year | 2.349% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
27/01/2020
Market Update
US tsys trading much higher on FTQ bid, yields 5-7bps lower, curve 2bps flatter, 10Y 1.61% (-7bps), lowest since Oct 9th. Equities, crude tumbling o/n on Coronavirus fears, S&P futures -1.5%. crude down for a 5th day, -3.0% @ 52.46, while gold futures are at a two-week high. Core EGBs higher, German IFO came in below forecasts, Italian 10Y BTPs 18bps lower after Italian regional vote result bolstered PM Conte’s fragile coalition. GOCs rallying, 2bps wider vs tsys, spreads still 7-8bps narrower on the week in the wake of dovish BOC.
News headlines
Virus Worries Batter Stocks and Oil as Bonds Surge: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Intensifying concern over the human and economic impact of the deadly coronavirus sent stocks, oil and China’s yuan tumbling Monday while spurring Treasuries and other havens. Italian bonds jumped after regional elections.
Futures lower as coronavirus fears push oil below $60 (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures fell on Monday, as oil prices declined on fears of slowing demand due to the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading coronavirus.
Oil Falls to Three-Month Low as Virus Spread Raises Demand Fear (Bloomberg) Oil tumbled to the lowest in more than three months on fears China’s deadly coronavirus will hit demand in a market that already has plentiful supply.
Fed’s first hurdle in 2020: Dispensing with ‘QE Lite’ (Reuters) The Federal Reserve’s bond portfolio is swelling again at a pace not seen since the “quantitative easing” heyday in the early 2010s. Prices for stocks and other risky assets are also rising at a fast clip – a state of affairs that a growing chorus of investors, economists and former Fed officials say is no coincidence, and potentially a problem.
Trump’s ‘massive’ U.S.-UK trade deal faces big hurdles (Reuters) Britain is the United States’ closest ally but their long friendship may be sorely tested as the two countries try to forge a new trade agreement after Britain’s exit from the European Union.
Business survey suggests U.S. labor market may have peaked (Reuters) There is an even balance in the share of U.S. businesses reporting decreases and increases in employment for the first time in a decade, a survey showed on Monday, the latest suggestion that the labor market has likely peaked and job growth could slow this year.
Venezuelan rum maker offers shares in hope of China-style transition (Reuters) Rum distiller Ron Santa Teresa RST.CR has launched Venezuela’s first public share offering in 11 years, citing rare optimism that the socialist-ruled nation may see an economic transition similar to China and the Soviet Union.
Coronavirus fears wipe billions from European stocks (Reuters) Potential damage to business from China’s fast-spreading coronavirus knocked more than 2% off European stocks on Monday, after the world’s second biggest economy ramped up travel bans and extended the Lunar New Year holidays.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.444% at 130-28, S&P 500 futures are down -1.56% at 3242.25, Crude oil futures are down -2.86% at $52.64, Gold futures are up 0.77% at $1590.4, DXY is up 0.05% at 97.9, CAD/USD is up 0.34% at 0.7583.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.437% | 2 Year | 1.441% |
| 5 Year | 1.325% | 5 Year | 1.433% |
| 10 Year | 1.307% | 10 Year | 1.612% |
| 30 Year | 1.441% | 30 Year | 2.066% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales MoM, Dec Survey: 1.50% Prior: 1.30% |
| New Home Sales, Dec Survey: 730k Prior: 719k | |
| 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Jan Survey: -1.8 Prior: -3.2 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Jan 24 Survey: — Prior: 56.1 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
24/01/2020
Market Update
US tsys marginally lower, 10Y 1.734% , above avg volume in TY futures. US equity futures higher (S&P +8), crude close to recent lows (55.40 -0.20) Some curve flattening in tsys attributed to comments from Tsy sec Mnuchin in BBG interview – ‘ultra issuance no longer near-term plan’, also double auction on Monday $81bln in 2 and 5Y notes. Core EGBs lower, bund curve 1bp steeper – Jan German PMI better than exp (45.2 vs 44.5), Eurozone Composite PMI slightly lower. UK gilts outperforming despite stronger Man PMI. GOCs close to unch, yesterday saw Can/US narrow another 1bp across the curve on top of Tuesday’s 8-10bps narrowing post BOC. Ontario 10Y issue yesterday – $1bln new June 2030s @ 64.5 vs C1.25/30 or 2bps vs Ont29s, opening 64.5/63.5
News headlines
U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise as Virus Fears on Hold: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. index futures edged higher while stocks jumped in Europe as investors digested the latest corporate news and economic data, setting aside for now fears over a deadly virus spreading from China. Oil fell for a fourth day.
TSX futures rise as WHO says coronavirus not a global emergency (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Friday after the World Health Organisation stopped short of calling the coronavirus outbreak in China a global emergency.
European stocks climb as economic data fuels growth hopes (Reuters) European shares on Friday were set to post their first daily gain this week on signs of a recovery ahead for growth, with easing worries over the coronavirus outbreak in China also emboldening investors.
Oil Set for Weekly Slump as Asia Virus Adds to Demand Concerns (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a 5% loss this week amid fears that China’s coronavirus will erode fuel demand just as markets struggle with a fragile world economy and adequate supplies.
Bond, equity funds suck-in $25 billion as ‘irrational’ bull phase continues: BofA (Reuters) Global equity and bond funds saw more inflows in the week to Wednesday and the “irrational bullish phase” in markets was likely to continue in the first-quarter if the U.S. Fed continued to pump-in liquidity, BofA said on Friday.
Exclusive: U.S. pushing India to buy $5-6 billion more farm goods to seal trade deal – sources (Reuters) The United States wants India to buy at least another $5-6 billion worth of American farm goods if New Delhi wants to win reinstatement of a key U.S. trade concession and seal a wider pact, four sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
Bank of England rate cut hangs in balance as Carney bows out (Reuters) The Bank of England is closer to cutting interest rates next week than at any time in the last three years, as governor Mark Carney chairs his last policy meeting and Britain finally leaves the European Union.
U.S. wants trade deal done with UK this year: Mnuchin (Reuters) The United States wants to conclude a trade deal with the United Kingdom this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday.
As Lebanese struggle to make ends meet, living costs set to soar higher (Reuters) Lebanese consumers feeling the pinch from rising living costs amid an economic crisis are likely to be squeezed even tighter as more local pounds and less U.S. dollars come into circulation, pushing up inflation.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.036% at 129-27, S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 3333.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.27% at $55.44, Gold futures are down -0.48% at $1564, DXY is up 0.21% at 97.897, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7613.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.513% | 2 Year | 1.517% |
| 5 Year | 1.426% | 5 Year | 1.547% |
| 10 Year | 1.414% | 10 Year | 1.731% |
| 30 Year | 1.551% | 30 Year | 2.174% |
US Economic Data
| 09:45 AM | Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Jan P Survey: 52.4 Prior: 52.4 |
| Markit US Services PMI, Jan P Survey: 53.0 Prior: 52.8 | |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Jan P Survey: — Prior: 52.7 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales MoM, Nov Survey: 0.60% Prior: -1.20% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Nov Survey: 0.50% Prior: -0.50% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
01/04/2021
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.357% at 130-31, S&P 500 futures are up 0.43% at 4027.25, Crude oil futures are up 3.87% at $61.45, Gold futures are up 0.75% at $1728.4, DXY is up 0.1% at 93.021, CAD/USD is up 0.14% at 0.7959.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 0.223% | 2 Year | 0.184% |
| 5 Year | 0.969% | 5 Year | 0.972% |
| 10 Year | 1.51% | 10 Year | 1.716% |
| 30 Year | 1.948% | 30 Year | 2.349% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
27/01/2020
Market Update
US tsys trading much higher on FTQ bid, yields 5-7bps lower, curve 2bps flatter, 10Y 1.61% (-7bps), lowest since Oct 9th. Equities, crude tumbling o/n on Coronavirus fears, S&P futures -1.5%. crude down for a 5th day, -3.0% @ 52.46, while gold futures are at a two-week high. Core EGBs higher, German IFO came in below forecasts, Italian 10Y BTPs 18bps lower after Italian regional vote result bolstered PM Conte’s fragile coalition. GOCs rallying, 2bps wider vs tsys, spreads still 7-8bps narrower on the week in the wake of dovish BOC.
News headlines
Virus Worries Batter Stocks and Oil as Bonds Surge: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Intensifying concern over the human and economic impact of the deadly coronavirus sent stocks, oil and China’s yuan tumbling Monday while spurring Treasuries and other havens. Italian bonds jumped after regional elections.
Futures lower as coronavirus fears push oil below $60 (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures fell on Monday, as oil prices declined on fears of slowing demand due to the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading coronavirus.
Oil Falls to Three-Month Low as Virus Spread Raises Demand Fear (Bloomberg) Oil tumbled to the lowest in more than three months on fears China’s deadly coronavirus will hit demand in a market that already has plentiful supply.
Fed’s first hurdle in 2020: Dispensing with ‘QE Lite’ (Reuters) The Federal Reserve’s bond portfolio is swelling again at a pace not seen since the “quantitative easing” heyday in the early 2010s. Prices for stocks and other risky assets are also rising at a fast clip – a state of affairs that a growing chorus of investors, economists and former Fed officials say is no coincidence, and potentially a problem.
Trump’s ‘massive’ U.S.-UK trade deal faces big hurdles (Reuters) Britain is the United States’ closest ally but their long friendship may be sorely tested as the two countries try to forge a new trade agreement after Britain’s exit from the European Union.
Business survey suggests U.S. labor market may have peaked (Reuters) There is an even balance in the share of U.S. businesses reporting decreases and increases in employment for the first time in a decade, a survey showed on Monday, the latest suggestion that the labor market has likely peaked and job growth could slow this year.
Venezuelan rum maker offers shares in hope of China-style transition (Reuters) Rum distiller Ron Santa Teresa RST.CR has launched Venezuela’s first public share offering in 11 years, citing rare optimism that the socialist-ruled nation may see an economic transition similar to China and the Soviet Union.
Coronavirus fears wipe billions from European stocks (Reuters) Potential damage to business from China’s fast-spreading coronavirus knocked more than 2% off European stocks on Monday, after the world’s second biggest economy ramped up travel bans and extended the Lunar New Year holidays.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.444% at 130-28, S&P 500 futures are down -1.56% at 3242.25, Crude oil futures are down -2.86% at $52.64, Gold futures are up 0.77% at $1590.4, DXY is up 0.05% at 97.9, CAD/USD is up 0.34% at 0.7583.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.437% | 2 Year | 1.441% |
| 5 Year | 1.325% | 5 Year | 1.433% |
| 10 Year | 1.307% | 10 Year | 1.612% |
| 30 Year | 1.441% | 30 Year | 2.066% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales MoM, Dec Survey: 1.50% Prior: 1.30% |
| New Home Sales, Dec Survey: 730k Prior: 719k | |
| 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Jan Survey: -1.8 Prior: -3.2 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Jan 24 Survey: — Prior: 56.1 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
24/01/2020
Market Update
US tsys marginally lower, 10Y 1.734% , above avg volume in TY futures. US equity futures higher (S&P +8), crude close to recent lows (55.40 -0.20) Some curve flattening in tsys attributed to comments from Tsy sec Mnuchin in BBG interview – ‘ultra issuance no longer near-term plan’, also double auction on Monday $81bln in 2 and 5Y notes. Core EGBs lower, bund curve 1bp steeper – Jan German PMI better than exp (45.2 vs 44.5), Eurozone Composite PMI slightly lower. UK gilts outperforming despite stronger Man PMI. GOCs close to unch, yesterday saw Can/US narrow another 1bp across the curve on top of Tuesday’s 8-10bps narrowing post BOC. Ontario 10Y issue yesterday – $1bln new June 2030s @ 64.5 vs C1.25/30 or 2bps vs Ont29s, opening 64.5/63.5
News headlines
U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise as Virus Fears on Hold: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. index futures edged higher while stocks jumped in Europe as investors digested the latest corporate news and economic data, setting aside for now fears over a deadly virus spreading from China. Oil fell for a fourth day.
TSX futures rise as WHO says coronavirus not a global emergency (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose on Friday after the World Health Organisation stopped short of calling the coronavirus outbreak in China a global emergency.
European stocks climb as economic data fuels growth hopes (Reuters) European shares on Friday were set to post their first daily gain this week on signs of a recovery ahead for growth, with easing worries over the coronavirus outbreak in China also emboldening investors.
Oil Set for Weekly Slump as Asia Virus Adds to Demand Concerns (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a 5% loss this week amid fears that China’s coronavirus will erode fuel demand just as markets struggle with a fragile world economy and adequate supplies.
Bond, equity funds suck-in $25 billion as ‘irrational’ bull phase continues: BofA (Reuters) Global equity and bond funds saw more inflows in the week to Wednesday and the “irrational bullish phase” in markets was likely to continue in the first-quarter if the U.S. Fed continued to pump-in liquidity, BofA said on Friday.
Exclusive: U.S. pushing India to buy $5-6 billion more farm goods to seal trade deal – sources (Reuters) The United States wants India to buy at least another $5-6 billion worth of American farm goods if New Delhi wants to win reinstatement of a key U.S. trade concession and seal a wider pact, four sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
Bank of England rate cut hangs in balance as Carney bows out (Reuters) The Bank of England is closer to cutting interest rates next week than at any time in the last three years, as governor Mark Carney chairs his last policy meeting and Britain finally leaves the European Union.
U.S. wants trade deal done with UK this year: Mnuchin (Reuters) The United States wants to conclude a trade deal with the United Kingdom this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday.
As Lebanese struggle to make ends meet, living costs set to soar higher (Reuters) Lebanese consumers feeling the pinch from rising living costs amid an economic crisis are likely to be squeezed even tighter as more local pounds and less U.S. dollars come into circulation, pushing up inflation.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.036% at 129-27, S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 3333.5, Crude oil futures are down -0.27% at $55.44, Gold futures are down -0.48% at $1564, DXY is up 0.21% at 97.897, CAD/USD is up 0.07% at 0.7613.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.513% | 2 Year | 1.517% |
| 5 Year | 1.426% | 5 Year | 1.547% |
| 10 Year | 1.414% | 10 Year | 1.731% |
| 30 Year | 1.551% | 30 Year | 2.174% |
US Economic Data
| 09:45 AM | Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Jan P Survey: 52.4 Prior: 52.4 |
| Markit US Services PMI, Jan P Survey: 53.0 Prior: 52.8 | |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Jan P Survey: — Prior: 52.7 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales MoM, Nov Survey: 0.60% Prior: -1.20% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Nov Survey: 0.50% Prior: -0.50% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230