Commentaires
06/11/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher on above ag volume (400k TY futures), 10Y 1.83(-2.7bps). Fed Evans saying inflation has undershot Fed’s 2.0% goal, neutral rate may be around 2.0% in interview with BN. UK gilts higher, 10Y gilt/bund spread 3bps tighter with bunds unch – UK PM Johnson launched his election campaign promising to get Brexit done. GOCs higher, seeing some outperformance in GOCs vs tsys in the rally. Active day in corps yest $1.7bln across three issues – Capital Power long 10Y @ 281, Ford 5Y @ 285 and dual tranche Ventas deal, FRN & 4.5Y fixed. CPXCN looked 15-20 cheap , while Ford was closer to a 20-30 bp concession based on the Ford CAD curve, with the USD 5Y ( 4.063%/24) swapping back to CAD at ~260.
News headlines
Stocks Drift Amid Mixed Earnings; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures struggled for traction alongside stocks in Europe and Asia as a raft of corporate earnings and economic data muddied the outlook for global growth. Treasuries rose after dropping for three days.
TSX futures tread water, eye trade developments (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited more clarity on U.S.-China trade developments.
Oil Slips From Six-Week High on Signs U.S. Supplies Rose Again (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from a six-week high as signs of another increase in U.S. crude reaffirmed the prevailing view that global markets are comfortably supplied.
China to resume imports of Canadian beef and pork (Reuters) China will resume imports of Canadian beef and pork, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday, some four months after Beijing blocked shipments amid an escalating diplomatic feud between the two countries.
Investors left exposed as Trump’s SEC gives America Inc a helping hand (Reuters) The United States’ top market cop is slowly taking the shackles off corporations.
China and France sign deals worth $15 billion during Macron’s visit (Reuters) China and France signed contracts totaling $15 billion during a visit by President Emmanuel Macron, a Chinese government official told a news briefing on Wednesday.
EU, China agree to protect 100 of each other’s regional foods (Reuters) The European Union and China have agreed to protect 100 European regional food designations, known as geographical indications (GI), in China and 100 Chinese geographical indications in the EU, the EU Commission said on Wednesday.
Ontario, Quebec to see budgets improve as Alberta struggles (BNN) As Alberta’s finances worsen, Ontario’s and Quebec’s are poised to only get better, underscoring the changing fortunes and increasing tensions in the Canadian federation.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.17% at 129-05, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 3074.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.4% at $57, Gold futures are up 0.2% at $1486.7, DXY is down -0.18% at 97.808, CAD/USD is up 0.11% at 0.7594.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.622% | 2 Year | 1.599% |
| 5 Year | 1.582% | 5 Year | 1.641% |
| 10 Year | 1.589% | 10 Year | 1.835% |
| 30 Year | 1.736% | 30 Year | 2.315% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov 1 Survey: — Actual: -0.10% Prior: 0.60% |
| 08:30 AM | Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q P Survey: 0.90% Prior: 2.30% |
| Unit Labor Costs, 3Q P Survey: 2.20% Prior: 2.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Oct Survey: — Prior: 48.7 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
06/11/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher on above ag volume (400k TY futures), 10Y 1.83(-2.7bps). Fed Evans saying inflation has undershot Fed’s 2.0% goal, neutral rate may be around 2.0% in interview with BN. UK gilts higher, 10Y gilt/bund spread 3bps tighter with bunds unch – UK PM Johnson launched his election campaign promising to get Brexit done. GOCs higher, seeing some outperformance in GOCs vs tsys in the rally. Active day in corps yest $1.7bln across three issues – Capital Power long 10Y @ 281, Ford 5Y @ 285 and dual tranche Ventas deal, FRN & 4.5Y fixed. CPXCN looked 15-20 cheap , while Ford was closer to a 20-30 bp concession based on the Ford CAD curve, with the USD 5Y ( 4.063%/24) swapping back to CAD at ~260.
News headlines
Stocks Drift Amid Mixed Earnings; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures struggled for traction alongside stocks in Europe and Asia as a raft of corporate earnings and economic data muddied the outlook for global growth. Treasuries rose after dropping for three days.
TSX futures tread water, eye trade developments (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited more clarity on U.S.-China trade developments.
Oil Slips From Six-Week High on Signs U.S. Supplies Rose Again (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from a six-week high as signs of another increase in U.S. crude reaffirmed the prevailing view that global markets are comfortably supplied.
China to resume imports of Canadian beef and pork (Reuters) China will resume imports of Canadian beef and pork, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday, some four months after Beijing blocked shipments amid an escalating diplomatic feud between the two countries.
Investors left exposed as Trump’s SEC gives America Inc a helping hand (Reuters) The United States’ top market cop is slowly taking the shackles off corporations.
China and France sign deals worth $15 billion during Macron’s visit (Reuters) China and France signed contracts totaling $15 billion during a visit by President Emmanuel Macron, a Chinese government official told a news briefing on Wednesday.
EU, China agree to protect 100 of each other’s regional foods (Reuters) The European Union and China have agreed to protect 100 European regional food designations, known as geographical indications (GI), in China and 100 Chinese geographical indications in the EU, the EU Commission said on Wednesday.
Ontario, Quebec to see budgets improve as Alberta struggles (BNN) As Alberta’s finances worsen, Ontario’s and Quebec’s are poised to only get better, underscoring the changing fortunes and increasing tensions in the Canadian federation.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are up 0.17% at 129-05, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 3074.25, Crude oil futures are down -0.4% at $57, Gold futures are up 0.2% at $1486.7, DXY is down -0.18% at 97.808, CAD/USD is up 0.11% at 0.7594.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.622% | 2 Year | 1.599% |
| 5 Year | 1.582% | 5 Year | 1.641% |
| 10 Year | 1.589% | 10 Year | 1.835% |
| 30 Year | 1.736% | 30 Year | 2.315% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov 1 Survey: — Actual: -0.10% Prior: 0.60% |
| 08:30 AM | Nonfarm Productivity, 3Q P Survey: 0.90% Prior: 2.30% |
| Unit Labor Costs, 3Q P Survey: 2.20% Prior: 2.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Oct Survey: — Prior: 48.7 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
05/11/2019
Market Update
Tsys trading lower, the 10Y back above 1.80%, (1.82 +4bps) heavy volume in TY futures (512k) , risk on with S&P futures (+6.5) looking to extend record highs on reports Trump will drop existing tariffs on $112bln in Chinese imports, the Chinese currency rising to the highest since August. Crude higher for a 3rd day (57.05 +1%) on trade optimism while OPEC said the outlook for the oil market has brightened going into next year – API inventory data later today. GOCs lower and steeper, 2s10s widest since August 1st, ~8bps since the BOC decision. We like maintaining steepeners given the cautious BOC and US tsy supply set to pick up this week (3s,10s & 30s).
News headlines
U.S. Futures Gain With Stocks; Treasuries Retreat: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures climbed with European and Asian stocks as investors took confidence from signs that America and China are inching toward a trade deal. Treasuries fell, while the yuan strengthened past 7 for the first time since August.
TSX futures up as trade optimism lifts oil (Reuters) Canada’s main stock index futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as crude prices gained on hopes of a trade deal between the United States and China.
Oil Gains for a Third Day as Trade Deal Optimism Extends (Bloomberg) Oil rose for a third day, buoyed by signs of progress in the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute, despite expectations for expanding American crude stockpiles.
Fed’s Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read (Reuters) Conflicting signals make it difficult to get a handle on the true health of the U.S. economy and reducing uncertainty for businesses would provide a shot in the arm to growth, Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday.
Scramble for propane marks Mother Nature’s latest challenge for U.S. farmers (Reuters) Months after historic floods ravaged the U.S. Midwest, farmers scrambling to harvest their crops face a new headache: finding fuel to dry their soaked grains.
China presses Trump for more tariff roll-backs in ‘phase one’ trade deal (Reuters) China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal, people familiar with the negotiations said on Monday.
OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking, lowers demand view (Reuters) OPEC will supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output of U.S. shale and other rival sources expands, the exporter group said, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion.
Market Overview: US 10yr note futures are down -0.181% at 129-11, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 3081.75, Crude oil futures are up 0.96% at $57.08, Gold futures are down -0.59% at $1502.2, DXY is up 0.15% at 97.651, CAD/USD is down -0.16% at 0.7616.
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.622% | 2 Year | 1.61% |
| 5 Year | 1.576% | 5 Year | 1.625% |
| 10 Year | 1.572% | 10 Year | 1.818% |
| 30 Year | 1.732% | 30 Year | 2.307% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Trade Balance, Sep Survey: -$52.4b Actual:-$52.5b Prior: -$54.9b |
| 09:45 AM | Markit US Services PMI, Oct F Survey: 51.0 Prior: 51.0 |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Oct F Survey: — Prior: 51.2 | |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Oct Survey: 53.5 Prior: 52.6 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Sep Survey: -0.65b Actual: -0.98b Prior: -0.96b |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230