Commentaires
14/05/2019
Market Update
US-China trade talks continue to dominate with slightly more optimistic headlines suggesting talks were ongoing and that Trump was still willing to do a deal helped USTs to give up some of yesterday’s gains. However, moves have been much more muted than yesterday. – This morning the Fed’s Williams said that lower neutral rates would require « new policy approaches » and that tariffs are like a negative supply shock. George and Daly are both due to speak later today. The data calendar is light today with import/export price data the only notable release. Things heat up tomorrow with retail sales and IP due for release.
News headlines
S&P 500 Futures and Europe Stocks Jump; Havens Dip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures rose alongside European stocks on Tuesday, shrugging off losses in Asia as investors assessed the prospects for global trade in the wake of a brutal start to the week for markets. Haven assets including Treasuries, gold and the yen slipped.
TSX futures up on fresh hopes over U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a slightly higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday, steered by optimistic comments from the world’s two biggest economies over the trade war.
Oil Rises as Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Attacks on Pump Stations (Bloomberg) Oil rose as Saudi Arabia reported drone attacks on pumping stations, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions after tankers were hit by sabotage over the weekend.
China says U.S. has agreed to keep talking over trade war (Reuters) China and the United States have agreed to keep talking about their trade dispute, the Chinese government said on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he thought recent discussions in Beijing would be successful.
Fed’s Williams says policymakers need to better prepare for lower interest rate world (Reuters) Torturously slow recoveries from recessions and low inflation are here to stay unless policymakers can get a better grip on how to stabilize the global economy in an era of lower interest rates, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said on Tuesday.
Euro zone industry output dragged down by France, Italy (Reuters) Euro zone industrial production fell in March for a second straight month as output declined in France and Italy but recovered in the bloc’s largest economy, Germany, data from the European Union’s statistics agency showed on Tuesday.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.593% | 2 Year | 2.195% |
| 5 Year | 1.562% | 5 Year | 2.195% |
| 10 Year | 1.681% | 10 Year | 2.414% |
| 30 Year | 1.915% | 30 Year | 2.851% |
US Economic Data
| 05:03 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism, Apr Survey 102.0 Actual 103.5 Prior 101.8 |
| 08:30 AM | Import Price Index MoM, Apr Survey 0.70% Prior 0.60% |
| Import Price Index YoY, Apr Survey 0.30% Prior 0.00% | |
| Export Price Index MoM, Apr Survey 0.60% Prior 0.70% | |
| Export Price Index YoY, Apr Survey — Prior 0.60% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM, Apr Survey — Prior -0.30% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
13/05/2019
Market Update
Latest headlines China to raise tariffs by 5%-25% on nearly 2,500 US goods spurs bid in Tsys, new highs. Risk assets in retreat while Tsys trading around late overnight highs on moderate volume (TYM>350k), narrow range after initial risk-off bounce as US/China trade angst resumed Sunday (Trump gives China a month to agree on a trade deal, threatens more tariffs; China blames Trump for trade set-backs). VIX rebounds (+2.70, 18.74) still well off last wk 4M highs (23.38); equities weak (ESM9 -39.25, 2847.75) compares to Fri 2826.5L. Slow start for data, week ahead focus is largely on Wednesday with April retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization and May Empire Manufacturing Index. The 2-Yr yield is down 4.7bps at 2.2191%, 5-Yr is down 4.9bps at 2.2148%, 10-Yr is down 4.1bps at 2.4263%, and 30-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.8579%.
News headlines
Stocks Slump, Treasuries Up as Trade Clouds Darken: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures slumped and stocks declined across Europe and Asia as investors digested the latest escalation of the global trade war. The yuan tumbled, while Treasuries rallied.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures edge lower on trade deal uncertainties (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index pointed to a lower opening on Monday, as the United States and China appeared to be at a deadlock over trade negotiations.
Oil Rises as Middle East Tanker Attacks Add to Political Risks (Bloomberg) Brent crude oil rallied after Saudi Arabia said two of its tankers were attacked on Sunday, adding to the mounting geopolitical risks in the market.
China says will ‘never surrender’ on trade, Trump warns against retaliation (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned Beijing not to retaliate in an escalating trade dispute after China said it “will never surrender to external pressure.”
European shares hit seven-week lows amid U.S.-China trade standoff (Reuters) European shares extended losses early on Monday from the biggest weekly slump this year as the U.S.-China deadlock quelled hopes that the two largest economies will be able to resolve their trade dispute anytime soon.
Futures extend losses after China plans retaliation (Reuters) U.S. stocks futures extended losses on Monday after China said it planned to set import tariffs against $60 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.61% | 2 Year | 2.211% |
| 5 Year | 1.58% | 5 Year | 2.207% |
| 10 Year | 1.696% | 10 Year | 2.421% |
| 30 Year | 1.925% | 30 Year | 2.854% |
US Economic Data
There is no US Economic data for today.
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, May 10 Survey – Prior 54.9 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
10/05/2019
Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, near top of narrow range overnite, 10Y 2.445%, heavy volume in TY futures (670k), US/China trade and Trump tweets making headlines with the US raising tariffs on $200bln in Chinese goods and the Chinese threatening to retailiate. US April CPI forecast to have risen 0.4% , unch from March with the y/y moving up to 2.1% from 1.9%, the main culprit being another solid monthly increase in retail gas prices (10% in April). Also multiple Fed speakers – Bostic, Brainard and Williams. GOCs slightly wider vs tsys before April Employment – 11.6k exp vs -7.2k in March., with the unemployment rate unch at 5.8%.
News headlines
Trump Ends China Trade Truce as Both Sides Plan More Tariffs (Bloomberg) President Donald Trump boosted tariffs Friday on $200 billion in goods from China and was preparing more in his most dramatic steps yet to extract trade concessions, saying there’s “no need to rush” a deal even though the uncertainty is roiling markets and clouding the global economy.
U.S. Stock Futures Decline as Europe, Asia Rebound: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures dropped on Friday, bucking a rebound in stocks from Europe to Asia as investors scrambled to gauge the outlook for the latest round of trade talks.
Oil Shrugs Off U.S. Tariff Hike to Climb on Tighter Supply (Bloomberg) Oil pushed higher even after the U.S. went ahead with a planned tariff increase on Chinese goods, as rising tensions in Iran and elsewhere kept the supply outlook tight.
U.S. escalates trade war amid negotiations, China says will hit back (Reuters) The United States escalated a tariff war with China on Friday by hiking levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in the midst of last-ditch talks to rescue a trade deal.
Pre-Brexit rush by factories boosts UK economy in early 2019 (Reuters) Britain’s economy got a sharp one-off boost in the first three months of 2019, official figures showed on Friday, as manufacturers rushed to deliver orders before a Brexit that never came.
EU commissioner says agriculture not on agenda for U.S. talks (Reuters) The European Union intends to keep agriculture off the agenda in its trade talks with the United States and continues to support rules-based, open and predictable international commerce, the EU’s agriculture commissioner said on Friday.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.587% | 2 Year | 2.254% |
| 5 Year | 1.56% | 5 Year | 2.24% |
| 10 Year | 1.686% | 10 Year | 2.446% |
| 30 Year | 1.932% | 30 Year | 2.873% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | CPI MoM, Apr Survey 0.40% Actual: 0.3% Prior 0.40% |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Apr Survey 0.20% Actual: 0.1% Prior 0.10% | |
| CPI YoY, Apr Survey 2.10% Actual: 2.0% Prior 1.90% | |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Apr Survey 2.10% Actual: 2.1% Prior 2.00% | |
| CPI Core Index SA, Apr Survey 261.884 Actual: 261.735 Prior 261.374 | |
| CPI Index NSA, Apr Survey 255.800 Actual: 255.548 Prior 254.202 | |
| 02:00 PM | Monthly Budget Statement, Apr Survey $160.5b Prior $214.3b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Building Permits MoM, Mar Survey 2.40% Actual: 2.1% Prior -5.70% |
| Net Change in Employment, Apr Survey 11.6k Actual: 106.5k Prior -7.2k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Apr Survey 5.80% Actual: 5.7% Prior 5.80% | |
| Participation Rate, Apr Survey 65.7 Actual: 65.9 Prior 65.7 | |
| Full Time Employment Change, Apr Survey — Actual: 73 Prior -6.4 | |
| Part Time Employment Change, Apr Survey — Actual: 33.6 Prior -0.9 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230