Commentaires
09/05/2019
Market Update
US tsys higher on rising trade tensions between the US & China, after Trump said China ‘broke the deal’ last nite, 10Y 2.45% (-3.5bps). Risk-off with US equities lower, S&P futures -21, European equities -1.0%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index fell for a third day to the lowest since March 29th. C ore EGBs higher, lagging tsys, yields 1-2bps lower, quiet day for European data. In the US April PPI & jobless claims, as well as $19bln 30Y US t-bond auction at 1:00ET – Yesterday’s $27bln 10Y auction saw the second tail in a row, awarded at 2.479% 2.465% WI. Competition from US corporate issuance – IBM issuing $20bln bringing the weekly total to $44.5bln the largest in eight months. GOCs higher, 1bp wider vs tsys, GOC curve 1bp flatter 2s10s, the narrowest in five weeks, 10s30s bucking the flattening trend over the last week, ~3bps steeper.
News headlines
As tariff hike looms, China asks U.S. to meet it halfway, denies backtracking (Reuters) China appealed to the United States to meet it halfway to salvage a deal that could end their trade war, with its chief negotiator in Washington for two days of talks hoping to stave off U.S. tariff increases set to be triggered on Friday.
Trump says Beijing ‘broke’ trade talk deals, pledges to keep tariffs on Chinese goods (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China “broke the deal” it had reached in trade talks with the United States, and vowed not to back down on imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports unless Beijing “stops cheating our workers.”
Stocks Drop, Treasuries Gain as Fresh Tariffs Loom: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks dropped globally and U.S. equity futures retreated on Thursday as a deadline approached for America and China to raise reciprocal tariffs. The yen climbed with gold and Treasuries as investors sought havens, while the yuan fell to its weakest since January.
CANADA STOCKS-Futures down ahead of crucial U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index dipped on Thursday ahead of crucial trade talks between the United States and China, with investors waiting to see if the world’s largest economies can avoid further worsening of the trade war.
Oil Drops as Trump’s Battle With China Offsets Iranian Tensions (Bloomberg) Oil fell as flaring trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies overshadowed concerns over supply disruptions from Iran to Venezuela.
New Colorado environmental law stalls oil investment (Reuters) New environmental regulations in Colorado have chilled investment in the state’s oil and gas fields as companies grapple with how local officials will respond to a law giving them more power to restrict energy production.
China to bid on D.C. Metro rail deal as national security hawks circle (Reuters) China’s CRRC plans to bid on a big Washington D.C. subway project as it doubles down on a charm campaign in the United States to quash a rising chorus of critics who have cast the rail car maker as a threat to cyber security and U.S. industry.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.578% | 2 Year | 2.264% |
| 5 Year | 1.543% | 5 Year | 2.247% |
| 10 Year | 1.672% | 10 Year | 2.446% |
| 30 Year | 1.931% | 30 Year | 2.865% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Apr Survey 0.30% Prior 0.60% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Apr Survey 0.20% Prior 0.30% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Apr Survey 2.30% Prior 2.20% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Apr Survey 2.50% Prior 2.40% | |
| Trade Balance, Mar Survey -$50.1b Prior -$49.4b | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, May 4 Survey 220k Prior 230k | |
| Continuing Claims, Apr 27 Survey 1670k Prior 1671k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, May 5 Survey — Prior 60.4 |
| 10:00 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM, Mar F Survey 0.00% Prior 0.00% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Int’l Merchandise Trade, Mar Survey -2.40b Prior -2.90b |
| New Housing Price Index MoM, Mar Survey 0.00% Prior 0.00% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
08/05/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher on ‘risk off’ tone with EGBs, concerns over US-China trade and Iran nuclear tensions, US 10Y 2.435% (-2.2bps). Core EGBs higher led by 10Y UK gilts, Brexit talks between the govt and opposition ‘close to being terminated’ according to ITV. US equity futures lower yet off the lows of the session, S&P -14.75. The US auctions $27bln in 10Y notes at 1:00. GOCs slightly lower, lagging the rally in tsys by 1-1.5bps – Housing Starts coming in above exp for April 235k vs 195k. At noon the BOC $4bln in reopened Can 1.5 Sep 2024s , the 5Y sector having underperformed 5bps over the past two weeks.
News headlines
Exclusive: China backtracked on nearly all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources (Reuters) The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.
Stocks Extend Global Slide as Trade Worries Simmer: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) The global stock selloff triggered by worries over the outlook for trade extended into a third day, with U.S. equity-index futures and European shares tracking declines across Asia. The pound slipped as hopes for a Brexit breakthrough faded.
TSX futures slip on U.S.-China trade concerns (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Wednesday, as deepening U.S.-China trade tensions and global economy slowdown fears drove investors away from risky assets.
Oil Slips Near Five-Week Low as Trade Angst Counters Supply Risk (Bloomberg) Oil traded near a five-week low as concern over supply losses from Iran to Russia were offset by high American stockpiles and fears that if U.S.-China trade talks fail it could dent global demand.
TREASURIES-Worries about U.S.-China trade talks push U.S. yields to 5-week lows (Reuters) U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday with longer-dated yields hitting five-week lows as investors piled more money into low-risk government debt on worries about upcoming trade negotiations between China and the United States.
Huawei CFO Meng set to appear in Canada court (Reuters) Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou is set to appear in a Canadian court on Wednesday to begin what is expected to be a long legal battle against the United States’ request that she be extradited to face fraud charges.
Dollar slips as trade tensions raise rate cut expectations (Reuters) The dollar weakened across the board on Wednesday as growing concerns about the escalating trade dispute between China and the United States prompted investors to raise their expectations of a U.S. rate cut later in the year.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.572% | 2 Year | 2.26% |
| 5 Year | 1.539% | 5 Year | 2.237% |
| 10 Year | 1.669% | 10 Year | 2.433% |
| 30 Year | 1.935% | 30 Year | 2.847% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, May 3 Actual 2.7% Prior -4.3% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:15 AM | Housing Starts, Apr Survey 195.5k Actual 235.5k Prior 192.5k |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
07/05/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading little lower, 10Y 2.48%, heavier volume in TY futures (600k), stock futures lower (S&P -0.7%) on renewed trade concerns with the US threatening to raise tariffs on Friday, and China’s trade negotiator scheduled to travel to the US. Core EGB and gilt yields have moved lower thru the morning, the EU Commission slashed economic growth forecasts for the EU & Germany, the latter to 0.5% from 1.1%. The RBA kept rates on hold vs. expectations for a rate cut(50%). GOCs higher, outperforming tsys 1-2bps, crude -1.0% 61.55. April Ivey PMI on tap.
News headlines
China vice premier going to U.S. for trade talks despite Trump threats (Reuters) Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States this week for trade talks, Beijing said on Tuesday, playing down a sudden increase in tension after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to impose new tariffs.
Stocks Decline as Trade Concerns Linger; Oil Dips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures extended declines on Tuesday alongside stocks in Europe as the gloom surrounding the outlook for global trade refused to dissipate. The dollar edged higher and Treasury yields were steady.
TSX futures down on U.S.-China trade worries (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Tuesday, as investors cautiously tracked developments around U.S.-China trade talks.
Oil Slips as Saudi Arabia Is Said to Give Extra Supply to Asia (Bloomberg) Oil traded near $62 a barrel as Saudi Arabia was said to give extra crude supplies to its customers in Asia but they’ll pay a heavy price for it.
Poloz issues ‘call to arms’ for mortgage market innovations (BNN) Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says it’s time for fresh ideas when it comes to Canadians’ mortgage options.
Trump’s tariff push squeezes businesses and consumers (Reuters) The first time President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on the luggage that Tiffany Williams imports for her Texas store, she stockpiled high-end suitcases and other products ahead of the deadline to protect profits.
Fed’s Kaplan optimistic U.S., China will find ways to tackle trade issues (Reuters) Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Tuesday he was optimistic the United States and China would find ways to deal with their trade issues.
U.S. to impose tariffs on Mexican tomatoes as new pact remains elusive (Reuters) The United States will impose a 17.5 percent tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting on Tuesday, as the two countries were unable to renew a 2013 agreement that suspended a U.S. anti-dumping investigation, a Mexican official said on Monday.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.612% | 2 Year | 2.282% |
| 5 Year | 1.581% | 5 Year | 2.262% |
| 10 Year | 1.712% | 10 Year | 2.467% |
| 30 Year | 1.97% | 30 Year | 2.881% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings, Mar Survey 7350 Prior 7087 |
| 03:00 PM | Consumer Credit, Mar Survey $16.000b Prior $15.188b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Apr Survey — Prior 54.3 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230