Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys slightly lower, 10Y 2.505 (+0.5bps), low volume in TY futures (198k) before big week for economic data including Fed decision Wed, ADP , ISM Man & April payrolls. March Personal Income & PCE scheduled for today. Core Euro bonds lower, German bunds 1bp higher with EU peripheral spds tighter after S&P affirmed Italy at BBB on Friday. GOCs lower, in line with tsys , 10Y 1.695%.

News headlines

Stocks Mixed at Start of Data-Rich Week; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe slipped and U.S. index futures fluctuated at the start of a holiday-truncated week packed with data releases that will provide clues on global economic growth. Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher, while oil fell.

TSX futures flat as oil prices slip (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday, as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump demanded that OPEC should raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

As trade talks reach endgame, U.S.-China ties could hinge on enforcement (Reuters) U.S. negotiators head to China on Tuesday to try to hammer out details to end the two countries’ trade war, including the shape of an enforcement mechanism, the success or failure of which could set the trajectory of ties for years to come.

Mnuchin hopes latest talks may seal U.S.-China trade deal (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in an television interview that aired on Monday, said he hopes that the United States and China can finalize a trade deal with two more rounds of talks between the global economic powerhouses.

Oil Extends Decline After Trump Renews His Call for Lower Prices (Bloomberg) Oil fell again, extending its biggest retreat in two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his push for lower prices and Russia said it would soon resolve a problem with contaminated supplies.

Iran says U.S. sanctions on its oil industry will damage market stability (Reuters) U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry will damage the stability of global oil markets, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Monday.

Canadian farm exports run into Chinese wall amid diplomatic dispute (Reuters) An expanding list of Canadian farm exports is hitting obstacles at Chinese ports, leaving sellers of soybeans, peas and pork scrambling amid a bitter diplomatic dispute.

Fed may end up seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as a template for today (BNN) As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues gather this week for a policy making meeting, some of them will likely have 1995 on their mind.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.552%	2 Year	2.284%
5 Year	1.537%	5 Year	2.293%
10 Year	1.7%	10 Year	2.509%
30 Year	1.99%	30 Year	2.933%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Personal Income, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20%
	Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior —
	Real Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.50% Prior —
	PCE Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.60% Prior —
	PCE Core Deflator MoM, Mar Survey 0.10% Prior —
	PCE Core Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.70% Prior —
10:30 AM	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Apr Survey 10.0 Prior 8.3

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Apr 26 Survey — Prior 55.2

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys pressured as stocks rebound , US 10Y  2.52% , curve 1bp steeper, core Euro bonds retracing earlier gains while Italian BTP 10Y spreads are 5bps narrower vs bunds. Q1 GDP the highlight for the US, 2.3% exp vs 2.2% pre –  both the Bloomberg and Nowcast estimates have moved steadily higher over the last month due to strong inventory build and a  signs of a rebound in consumption.  GOCs are heading lower before 8:30 US data, 10Y 1.71% . No data in Canada, Feb GDP next Tuesday.

News headlines

Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth (Reuters) The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.

Stocks, Dollar in Holding Pattern Before U.S. Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures and European stocks drifted alongside their Asian counterparts on Friday as investors counted down to the release of first-quarter American growth data and earnings season continued apace. The dollar was steady.

TSX futures lower as oil prices fall (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Friday, as oil prices fell on expectations that OPEC will raise output to counter shrinking exports from Iran after sanctions imposed by the United States.

Japan tells U.S. can’t link monetary policy to trade: finance minister Aso (Reuters) Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Thursday he told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that Tokyo cannot accept discussions that link monetary policy to trade issues

No stone unturned: South Korea to sweep world for Iran oil replacement (Reuters) South Korea will likely return to a familiar game plan to replace Iranian oil it will no longer have access to after May now that the United States intends to tighten sanctions on Iranian exports.

Poloz ‘much too optimistic’ on Canadian growth, economist says (BNN) A Canadian economist is warning that the Bank of Canada is far too optimistic on the country’s long-term outlook, but says he sees a bright spot for some sectors that can benefit from strength in the global economy.

Gold eyes weekly gain as dollar dips ahead of U.S. GDP data (Reuters) Gold rose on Friday, pulling further away from the four-month low it hit earlier this week as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields dipped ahead of U.S. growth data, putting bullion on track for its first weekly gain in five.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.548%	2 Year	2.314%
5 Year	1.532%	5 Year	2.315%
10 Year	1.698%	10 Year	2.522%
30 Year	1.992%	30 Year	2.938%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	GDP Annualized QoQ, 1Q A Survey 2.30% Actual 3.20% Prior 2.20%
	Personal Consumption, 1Q A Survey 1.00% Actual 1.20% Prior 2.50%
	GDP Price Index, 1Q A Survey 1.20% Actual 0.9% Prior 1.70%
	Core PCE QoQ, 1Q A Survey 1.40% Actual 1.3% Prior 1.80%
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Apr F Survey 97.0 Prior 96.9

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys moving lower after March Durable Goods upside surprise (2.7% vs 0.8% exp), 10Y  2.54. Core Euro bonds mixed, bunds unch while UK gilt yields are ~2.5bps lower, 10Y gilt at two week low 1.15%. Another strong day for the USD index, DXY up for a third day at a two-year high, SEK touched multi decade lows on Swedish Riksbank plan to delay rate hikes. In Canada, GOCs lower, 1bp wider vs tsys in the pullback post data.  At noon the BOC auctions $1.4bln 2% Dec 2051s with benchmark yields 2.0%, the last long auction being October 31st when yields were at a four-year high 2.50%.  The long end has lagged in this latest rate rally, 10s30s reached 32bps yest the widest since Nov 2017, while the 51/48 roll has cheapened ~0.5bps both of which should support the auction.

News headlines

Bank of Canada abandons rate-hike bias amid economic slowdown (BNN) The Bank of Canada fully abandoned its bias toward raising interest rates as the economy grapples with a slowdown, bringing its policy in line with the Federal Reserve and other major industrial central banks.

TSX futures slip tracking global cues (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Thursday after world equity markets slipped amid global growth worries.

Stocks Mixed as Traders Digest Flood of Earnings: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures were mixed on Thursday and European shares edged lower as investors parsed a slew of earnings against a backdrop of global growth concerns. The dollar hit a four-month high.

Brent oil hits $75 for first time in 2019 as Russian exports cut (Reuters) Brent oil rose above $75 per barrel on Thursday for the first time this year as quality concerns forced the suspension of some Russian crude exports to Europe while the United States prepared to tighten sanctions on Iran.

U.S. officials say global oil market ready for end to Iran crude exports (Reuters) U.S. attempts to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero come against the backdrop of a global market that is sufficiently well supplied to avoid price disruptions, senior U.S. officials said on Thursday.

Dow futures hit by 3M results; upbeat tech results support Nasdaq (Reuters) Dow and S&P futures were pressured by a steep fall in industrial company 3M’s shares on Thursday, while upbeat results from high-flying companies Facebook and Microsoft supported Nasdaq futures.

China seeks to allay fears over Belt and Road debt risks (Reuters) China aims to make the Belt and Road initiative sustainable and prevent debt risks, its finance minister said on Thursday, seeking to allay criticism that the infrastructure plan to boost trade and investment creates a heavy burden for some nations.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.533%	2 Year	2.318%
5 Year	1.517%	5 Year	2.317%
10 Year	1.689%	10 Year	2.527%
30 Year	2.006%	30 Year	2.948%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 20 Survey 200k Actual 230k Prior 192k Revised 193k
	Continuing Claims, Apr 13 Survey 1682k Actual 1655k Prior 1653k Revised 1654k
	Durable Goods Orders, Mar P Survey 0.8%  Actual 2.7% Prior -1.6% Revised -1.1%
	Durables Ex Transportation, Mar P Survey 0.2% Actual 0.4% Prior -0.1% Revised -0.2%
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 21 Survey — Prior 60.3

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230