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Market Update

US tsys pressured in recent trade after German flash HICP inflation came in stronger – 2.1% vs 1.7% and US equity futures move higher on earnings, US 10Y 2.535% (+1bp).  Core Euro bonds underperforming tsys, 10Y bund yields +3bps, gilts +4bps.   Q1 Eurozone GDP 1.2% y/y vs 1.1%.  US equities recouping losses from Google disappointment after positive earnings from MCD, GE.  In Canada, GOCs lower, in line with tsys after  Feb GDP came in below exp (-0.1% vs 0.0%), curve 1bp steeper 2s10s.

News headlines

Mnuchin hopes for ‘substantial progress’ in China trade talks (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that he hopes to make “substantial progress” with Chinese negotiators in the next two rounds of trade talks, as the world’s two largest economies look for ways to end their bruising trade war.

Iran says it will keep exporting oil despite U.S. pressure (Reuters) Iran will continue to export oil despite U.S. pressure aimed at reducing the country’s crude shipments to zero, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday.

TSX futures slip, Feb GDP in focus (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Tuesday, as investors awaited Canada’s February gross domestic product (GDP) data, which is due later in the day.

Stocks Lose Traction on Mixed Earnings; Euro Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures were mixed and European stocks edged lower on Tuesday while Asian shares slipped as investors weighed another mixed bag of corporate results. Treasuries were steady a day before the next Federal Reserve policy decision.

Oil Gains as Saudis Talk of Extending Cuts, Venezuela Escalates (Bloomberg) Oil rose as Saudi Arabia signaled OPEC and its allies could extend supply cuts to the end of the year, while Venezuela’s opposition leader called for a military uprising.

Big banks break away from lobby groups in Brexit trade deal talks (Reuters) A group of banks are directly feeding the British government ideas for a Brexit financial services trade deal, bypassing the industry’s major lobby groups after their blueprint for a future relationship with the EU was spurned by Brussels last year.

Equities drop after China data; euro zone growth lifts single currency (Reuters) European shares edged down on Tuesday after weak Chinese business surveys doused appetite for risk, while the single currency climbed after euro zone growth beat expectations.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.574%	2 Year	2.286%
5 Year	1.559%	5 Year	2.308%
10 Year	1.729%	10 Year	2.527%
30 Year	2.01%	30 Year	2.958%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Employment Cost Index, 1Q Survey 0.70% Acutal 0.7% Prior 0.70%
09:45 AM	MNI Chicago PMI, Apr Survey 58.5 Prior 58.7
10:00 AM	Pending Home Sales MoM, Mar Survey 1.50% Prior -1.00%
	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Apr Survey 126.8 Prior 124.1

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	GDP MoM, Feb Survey 0.00% Actual -0.1% Prior 0.30%
	GDP YoY, Feb Survey 1.40% Actual 1.1% Prior 1.60%
	Industrial Product Price MoM, Mar Survey – Actual 1.3% Prior 0.30%
	Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Mar Survey – Actual 2.8% Prior 4.60%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys slightly lower, 10Y 2.505 (+0.5bps), low volume in TY futures (198k) before big week for economic data including Fed decision Wed, ADP , ISM Man & April payrolls. March Personal Income & PCE scheduled for today. Core Euro bonds lower, German bunds 1bp higher with EU peripheral spds tighter after S&P affirmed Italy at BBB on Friday. GOCs lower, in line with tsys , 10Y 1.695%.

News headlines

Stocks Mixed at Start of Data-Rich Week; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe slipped and U.S. index futures fluctuated at the start of a holiday-truncated week packed with data releases that will provide clues on global economic growth. Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher, while oil fell.

TSX futures flat as oil prices slip (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday, as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump demanded that OPEC should raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

As trade talks reach endgame, U.S.-China ties could hinge on enforcement (Reuters) U.S. negotiators head to China on Tuesday to try to hammer out details to end the two countries’ trade war, including the shape of an enforcement mechanism, the success or failure of which could set the trajectory of ties for years to come.

Mnuchin hopes latest talks may seal U.S.-China trade deal (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in an television interview that aired on Monday, said he hopes that the United States and China can finalize a trade deal with two more rounds of talks between the global economic powerhouses.

Oil Extends Decline After Trump Renews His Call for Lower Prices (Bloomberg) Oil fell again, extending its biggest retreat in two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his push for lower prices and Russia said it would soon resolve a problem with contaminated supplies.

Iran says U.S. sanctions on its oil industry will damage market stability (Reuters) U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry will damage the stability of global oil markets, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Monday.

Canadian farm exports run into Chinese wall amid diplomatic dispute (Reuters) An expanding list of Canadian farm exports is hitting obstacles at Chinese ports, leaving sellers of soybeans, peas and pork scrambling amid a bitter diplomatic dispute.

Fed may end up seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as a template for today (BNN) As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues gather this week for a policy making meeting, some of them will likely have 1995 on their mind.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.552%	2 Year	2.284%
5 Year	1.537%	5 Year	2.293%
10 Year	1.7%	10 Year	2.509%
30 Year	1.99%	30 Year	2.933%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Personal Income, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20%
	Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior —
	Real Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.50% Prior —
	PCE Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.60% Prior —
	PCE Core Deflator MoM, Mar Survey 0.10% Prior —
	PCE Core Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.70% Prior —
10:30 AM	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Apr Survey 10.0 Prior 8.3

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Apr 26 Survey — Prior 55.2

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys pressured as stocks rebound , US 10Y  2.52% , curve 1bp steeper, core Euro bonds retracing earlier gains while Italian BTP 10Y spreads are 5bps narrower vs bunds. Q1 GDP the highlight for the US, 2.3% exp vs 2.2% pre –  both the Bloomberg and Nowcast estimates have moved steadily higher over the last month due to strong inventory build and a  signs of a rebound in consumption.  GOCs are heading lower before 8:30 US data, 10Y 1.71% . No data in Canada, Feb GDP next Tuesday.

News headlines

Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth (Reuters) The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.

Stocks, Dollar in Holding Pattern Before U.S. Data: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures and European stocks drifted alongside their Asian counterparts on Friday as investors counted down to the release of first-quarter American growth data and earnings season continued apace. The dollar was steady.

TSX futures lower as oil prices fall (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Friday, as oil prices fell on expectations that OPEC will raise output to counter shrinking exports from Iran after sanctions imposed by the United States.

Japan tells U.S. can’t link monetary policy to trade: finance minister Aso (Reuters) Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Thursday he told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that Tokyo cannot accept discussions that link monetary policy to trade issues

No stone unturned: South Korea to sweep world for Iran oil replacement (Reuters) South Korea will likely return to a familiar game plan to replace Iranian oil it will no longer have access to after May now that the United States intends to tighten sanctions on Iranian exports.

Poloz ‘much too optimistic’ on Canadian growth, economist says (BNN) A Canadian economist is warning that the Bank of Canada is far too optimistic on the country’s long-term outlook, but says he sees a bright spot for some sectors that can benefit from strength in the global economy.

Gold eyes weekly gain as dollar dips ahead of U.S. GDP data (Reuters) Gold rose on Friday, pulling further away from the four-month low it hit earlier this week as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields dipped ahead of U.S. growth data, putting bullion on track for its first weekly gain in five.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.548%	2 Year	2.314%
5 Year	1.532%	5 Year	2.315%
10 Year	1.698%	10 Year	2.522%
30 Year	1.992%	30 Year	2.938%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	GDP Annualized QoQ, 1Q A Survey 2.30% Actual 3.20% Prior 2.20%
	Personal Consumption, 1Q A Survey 1.00% Actual 1.20% Prior 2.50%
	GDP Price Index, 1Q A Survey 1.20% Actual 0.9% Prior 1.70%
	Core PCE QoQ, 1Q A Survey 1.40% Actual 1.3% Prior 1.80%
10:00 AM	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Apr F Survey 97.0 Prior 96.9

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230