Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys higher, 10Y 2.565% (-2.5bps), heavy volume in TY futures (540k) ahead of March Retail Sales & Phili Fed Index. Equity futures rebounding from early losses, S&P +2.5. EGBs higher, outperforming tsys, sharp spike in bund futures after weaker Eurozone PMIs. MNI Positioning Indicator pointing to short setting being the theme in core EGBs all week. Furthermore, due to the holidays issuance declines markedly to just E6.5bln vs E13.4bln this week, while redemptions total E31.2bln (E29.3bln of which is the OAT 4.25 19) – so this could also be supportive of prices before the long weekend.  GOCs higher, in line with tsys before  Feb Retail Sales – 0.4% expected from -0.3% in Jan, the rebound coming from higher gas prices and auto sales (10% in feb).

News headlines

Bonds Advance, Stocks Mixed Before Holiday Weekend: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Treasuries led a rebound in global bonds on Thursday, while U.S. equity futures edged lower and European stocks fluctuated as a cautious mood gripped markets before the long holiday weekend.

Stock futures subdued after weak manufacturing data from Europe (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures were muted on Thursday, as weak manufacturing data out of Europe underscored concerns of a global slowdown, while investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of a long-awaited Mueller report.

Oil Steadies as Political Risks Mingle With Economic Worries (Bloomberg) Oil steadied below $64 a barrel in New York as ongoing threats to supply from political crises were offset by disappointing indicators on the global economy.

CANADA STOCKS-Futures weighed down by global growth concerns (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were slightly lower on Thursday, ahead of a long Easter weekend, after world markets erased this week’s gains on fears of a slowdown in global growth following weak manufacturing surveys from Asia and Europe.

Trump team readies PR offensive on North America trade deal’s economic effects (Reuters) The Trump administration is readying a public relations offensive over the economic impact of its new North American trade deal to counter a crucial report expected on Thursday that economists see as likely to show minimal gains at best.

UK consumers keep calm and carry on shopping before Brexit deadline (Reuters) British shoppers ignored worries about an impending Brexit deadline and spent heavily in March, official data showed on Thursday, supporting the country’s sluggish economy while companies were cutting back on investment.

Mueller Day: What to Look for When His Redacted Report Is Out (Bloomberg) Attorney General William Barr is set to release a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report Thursday, and the document could leave everyone unsatisfied — President Donald Trump, lawmakers and the public.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.646%	2 Year	2.382%
5 Year	1.642%	5 Year	2.373%
10 Year	1.794%	10 Year	2.565%
30 Year	2.068%	30 Year	2.977%

US Economic Data

08:30 AM	Retail Sales Advance MoM, Mar Survey 1.00% Prior -0.20%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior -0.40%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior -0.60%
	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Apr Survey 11.0 Prior 13.7
	Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 13 Survey 205k Prior 196k
	Continuing Claims, Apr 6 Survey 1722k Prior 1713k
09:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 14 Survey — Prior 59.8
	Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Apr P Survey 52.8 Prior 52.4
	Markit US Services PMI, Apr P Survey 55.0 Prior 55.3
	Markit US Composite PMI, Apr P Survey — Prior 54.6
10:00 AM	Leading Index, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Retail Sales MoM, Feb Survey 0.40% Prior -0.30%
	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Feb Survey 0.20% Prior 0.10%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys lower since Asia and European session, following better than expected China Q1 GDP data, US 10Y 2.60%, heavy volume in TY futures (545k) with prices hitting the lowest since March 19th . US equity futures higher, S&P +7, crude 64.40 (+0.35). Core EGBs lower despite softer UK CPI and continued declines in pace of House price growth in Feb (0.65 vs 1.2% exp). GOCs lower before CPI, 0.5bps vs tsys, 10Y 1.80% highest in five weeks.  March CPI expected to see a second straight 0.7% increase, with upside risk due to gasoline and seasonal increases in apparel, travel, … Ten year auction at noon – $3.3bln reopening of the 2.25% June 2029s , size is 10% larger than last auction in Jan with yields ~20bps lower.  The 29/28 roll tigther this week , 2.0/1.9  versus 3 month low 1.7bps.

News headlines

China’s first-quarter growth unexpectedly steadies, but too early to call clear recovery (Reuters) China’s economy grew at a steady 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, defying expectations for a further slowdown, as industrial production jumped sharply and consumer demand showed signs of improvement.

Stocks Edge Up as China Optimism Boosts Sentiment: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks mostly edged higher on Wednesday as improving prospects for the world’s second-biggest economy helped lift investor sentiment as the earnings season rumbled on. Bond fell and the dollar nudged lower.

Futures up on higher oil; inflation, trade data in focus (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Wednesday, boosted by gains in oil prices, ahead of inflation and trade balance data.

China’s Strengthening Economy Bolsters Its Hand in Trump Trade Talks (Bloomberg) China’s economy rebounded through the first quarter, a welcome sign of stabilization for the world and handing the government room for maneuver as trade negotiations with the U.S. enter a crucial stage.

Oil hits 2019 high above $72 on China growth, lower U.S. inventories (Reuters) Brent oil hit a 2019 high above $72 a barrel on Wednesday, propelled by steady economic growth in China and a fall in U.S. crude stocks which defied expectations and signaled firm demand, while global supply remained tight.

U.S. firms no longer ‘positive anchor’ for Beijing ties: AmCham in China (Reuters) Frustrated U.S. businesses can no longer be counted on as a “positive anchor” in U.S.-China relations, a top U.S. business lobby said on Wednesday, arguing any deal to end trade tensions must address structural problems in China’s economic system.

U.S. handbags, shovels on $20 billion EU tariff list over Boeing (Reuters) Handbags, tractors, shovels and fish are part of an 11-page list of U.S. imports worth $20 billion that the European Union on Wednesday said it could hit with tariffs in a transatlantic aircraft subsidy dispute.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.647%	2 Year	2.413%
5 Year	1.661%	5 Year	2.413%
10 Year	1.804%	10 Year	2.599%
30 Year	2.102%	30 Year	3%

US Economic Data

07:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Apr 12 Actual -3.50% Prior -5.60%
08:30 AM	Trade Balance, Feb Survey -$53.4b Prior -$51.1b
10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories MoM, Feb Survey 0.30% Prior 1.20%

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Int’l Merchandise Trade, Feb Survey -3.25b Prior -4.25b
	CPI NSA MoM, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior 0.70%
	CPI YoY, Mar Survey 1.90% Prior 1.50%
	Consumer Price Index, Mar Survey 135.4 Prior 134.5

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys under pressure, yields 2-2.5bps higher, 10Y 2.57% , moderate volume in TY futures (350k), equities near top of overnight range (S&P fut +10). BOA Q1 eps beat est  $0.70 vs $0.66, with record quarterly earnings $7.3bln. Walmart announced a benchmark (~$1bln) USD 5,7 & 10Y deal.  Core EGBs little changed, UK gilts flat after Feb employment rose 179k close to exp, while EU summit chair Tusk said he “dreams” of the UK remaining in the EU but admits he has few allies who want to reverse Brexit.  GOCs lower in line with tsys, Can/US ~2bps tighter after since yesterday’s weaker BOC outlook survey. March CPI tomorrow, expecting another strong m/m increase (0.7%) with gas prices up 11% last month and strong seasonals. If that is the case the gentle rally in breakevens since year end could gain some traction, particularly short dated RRB 21s & 26s due to higher carry profile.

News headlines

Stocks Gain as Earnings Lift Outlook; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks advanced globally on Tuesday as investors showed confidence the equity rally will find fresh support from the deluge of corporate earnings due this week. The dollar strengthened while Treasuries were steady.

Futures rise tracking global markets (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index inched higher on Tuesday, after stock markets around the world gained on reduced volatility.

Trump on China trade spat: ‘We’re going to win either way’ (Reuters) President Donald Trump said on Monday he believed the United States would emerge from its trade dispute with China as a winner, no matter what happened.

Loonie falls as business sentiment softens on slowing economy (BNN) Canada’s recent economic slowdown and global trade tensions are hitting businesses confidence, according to a Bank of Canada survey.

EU says it is ready to launch U.S. trade talks, but without agriculture (Reuters) The European Union is ready to start talks on a trade agreement with the United States and aims to conclude a deal before year-end, European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Monday.

China’s policy stimulus may worsen economic distortions: OECD (Reuters) China’s stimulus measures will shore up economic growth this year and next but may undermine the country’s drive to control debt and worsen structural distortions over the medium term, the OECD said in a report on Tuesday.

Canada’s oil heartland heads to polls with carbon taxes at risk (BNN) Voters in the Canadian province of Alberta, home to the world’s third-largest oil reserves, head to the voting booth today in a divisive election that could have wide-ranging implications for the country’s environmental policy and global energy markets.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.612%	2 Year	2.398%
5 Year	1.618%	5 Year	2.384%
10 Year	1.756%	10 Year	2.567%
30 Year	2.059%	30 Year	2.981%

US Economic Data

09:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Mar Survey 0.20% Prior 0.10%
	Capacity Utilization, Mar Survey 79.20% Prior 78.20%
10:00 AM	NAHB Housing Market Index, Apr Survey 63 Prior 62

Canadian Economic Data

08:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Feb Survey — Prior 28.40b
	Manufacturing Sales MoM, Feb Survey -0.10% Prior 1.00%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230