Commentaires matinaux
Disponibles avant l'ouverture des marchés en anglais seulement15/04/2019
Market Update
Rates drifting around steady to mildly mixed after the bell, long end buying last few minutes. Generally quiet inside range day so far. Equities mildly weaker (SPX -1.0 at 2911.5); US$ index lower (DXY -.158, 96.814). Otherwise quiet ahead next week’s shortened pre-Easter holiday weekend; Fed Blackout kicks off April 20 through May 2. The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 2.3977%, 5-Yr is down 0.2bps at 2.3786%, 10-Yr is down 0.5bps at 2.5597%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 2.9705%.
News headlines
Stocks Drift Higher as Earnings Roll In; Oil Dips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures drifted on Monday while stocks in Europe edged higher as investors turned modestly optimistic toward the next batch of corporate earnings. Treasuries held steady with the dollar.
Oil Retreats After Longest Run of Weekly Gains in Three Years (Bloomberg) Oil retreated in New York after its longest run of weekly gains in three years, as traders and investors awaited more clarity on the strength of the global economy and demand.
Exclusive: U.S. waters down demand China ax subsidies in push for trade deal – sources (Reuters) U.S. negotiators have tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing, according to two sources briefed on discussions, marking a retreat on a core U.S. objective for the trade talks.
EU countries back starting trade talks with United States (Reuters) European Union countries gave final clearance on Monday to start formal trade talks with the United States after months of delay due to French resistance.
China starts review of anti-dumping measures on U.S. distillers grains (Reuters) China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it is starting a review on Monday of its anti-dumping tariffs on imports of distillers grains (DDGS) from the United States and said the investigation should be completed in a year.
Futures dip as oil prices fall on supply concerns (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Monday, as oil prices halted their rally on mixed signals over global supply.
METALS-Copper stays firm ahead of China data, clues to demand prospects (Reuters) Copper prices steadied on Monday, reinforced by a lower dollar and healthy economic numbers from China ahead of a barrage of growth data later this week from the top consumer.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.645% | 2 Year | 2.402% |
| 5 Year | 1.66% | 5 Year | 2.384% |
| 10 Year | 1.793% | 10 Year | 2.565% |
| 30 Year | 2.072% | 30 Year | 2.977% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Empire Manufacturing, Apr Survey 8.0 Actual 10.1 Prior 3.7 |
| 04:00 PM | Net Long-term TIC Flows, Feb Survey — Prior -$7.2b |
| Total Net TIC Flows, Feb Survey — Prior -$143.7b |
Canadian Economic Data
| 09:00 AM | Existing Home Sales MoM, Mar Survey 2.00% Prior -9.10% |
| 10:30 AM | BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey, 1Q Survey — Prior -16.0 |
| BoC Business Outlook Future Sales, 1Q Survey — Prior -1.0 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
12/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys weaker on strong ‘risk on’ tone after better than expected China data (exports surged 14.2% in March vs 6.5% exp, +21% in Yuan terms), 10Y 2.54% (+4.7bps), S&P futures +16, crude 64.40 (+0.82), USD index reversing Thursday’s gains, -0.305 96.87. JPM beat Q1 estimates by a wide margin – $2.65 vs $2.35 with revenues rising to a record $29.9bln, while its NIM jumped to the highest in seven yrs at 2.57%. Wells Fargo eps $1.20 vs $1.09, shares up 0.67% pre-mkt. GOCs weaker, curve another 2bps steeper led by the 10Y, which saw some fairly severe selling yesterday afternoon on the back of 2 blocks of 1500 contracts in CGBs. Provi spreads ~2bps tighter, Ont 28s 70.5. Ontario 2019 budget neutral for spds, borrowings to decline from $36bln from $39.6bln, with balanced budget forecast by 2024.
News headlines
China March exports rebound to five-month high but imports fall more than expected (Reuters) China’s exports rebounded in March but imports shrank for a fourth straight month and at a sharper pace, painting a mixed picture of the economy as trade talks with the United States reach their endgame.
Stocks Rise, Bonds Drop on China Data; Oil Climbs: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks turned higher on Friday and Treasuries slipped with the dollar as credit growth in China and the first major U.S. bank earnings both beat expectations.
TSX futures lifted by rising oil (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Friday, as oil prices rose following supply cuts from Venezuela, Libya and Iran.
U.S. EPA to revise proposed freeze of vehicle fuel economy rules (Reuters) The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Thursday the agency would revise its proposed freeze of vehicle fuel economy standards before unveiling its final regulation in the coming months.
Oil Heads for Sixth Weekly Gain Amid Falling OPEC Production (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a sixth weekly increase as falling OPEC production tightened global crude markets, offsetting concerns that slower economic growth will weaken demand.
Futures rise as JPMorgan kicks off earnings season on strong note (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after JPMorgan kicked off first-quarter earnings season on a strong note, while signs of stabilization in China’s economy helped ease global growth concerns.
Ontario charts five-year path back to balance while avoiding austerity (BNN) Ontario is charting a path back to balance but the Ford government’s inaugural budget will keep voters waiting until after the next election before getting the books in the black.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.624% | 2 Year | 2.391% |
| 5 Year | 1.636% | 5 Year | 2.363% |
| 10 Year | 1.769% | 10 Year | 2.544% |
| 30 Year | 2.054% | 30 Year | 2.961% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM, Mar Actual -0.3% Prior -0.4% |
| Import Price Index MoM, Mar Surv 0.4% Actual 0.6% Prior 0.6% | |
| Import Price Index YoY, Mar Surv -0.6% Actual 0.0% Prior -1.3% | |
| 10:00 AM | U. of Mich. Sentiment, Apr P Surv 98.2 Prior 98.4 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
11/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading lower, 10Y 2.485% (+2bps), low volume in TY futures (228k). US equity futures slightly higher, crude lower 64.04 (-0.88). Core EGBs mixed, 10Y gilt yields at three-week high following Brexit extension until October 31st. US March PPI and claims on deck, and US $156bln 30Y T-bond auction at 1:00ET. GOCs lower, lagging the decline in tsys by 0.5bps, 10Y 1.69%. CAD 0.4% lower 1.3377 with lower crude. Ontario budget today, expected to address $14.5bln deficit as well as its ~$350bln debt burden
News headlines
U.S., China agree to establish trade deal enforcement offices: Mnuchin (Reuters) The United States and China have largely agreed on a mechanism to police any trade agreement they reach, including establishing new “enforcement offices,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday.
U.S. Futures Edge Up With Europe Stocks; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures turned higher with European shares after a downbeat session in Asia. Treasuries edged down while the dollar was steady.
Oil Retreats as Swelling U.S. Stockpiles Undermine OPEC’s Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from a five-month high as an increase in U.S. crude inventories overshadowed OPEC’s efforts to reduce production.
Fed Signals a Year of Patience Is Ahead With a Grab Bag of Growth Risks (Bloomberg)
China producer inflation picks up for first time in nine months, eases deflation worries (Reuters) China’s factory-gate inflation picked up for the first time in nine months in March, lifted by price rises in global commodities as well as signs that government efforts to boost the economy may be putting a floor under domestic demand.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures point to a higher open (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to higher opening for Canada’s main index on Thursday, building on the previous day’s gains as investors look forward to earnings season.
Growth woes, trade tension douse rally in Asian shares (Reuters) Asian stocks stepped back from near eight-month highs on Thursday and the dollar eased as cautious European and U.S. central banks reinforced investors’ worries about the slowing global economy and trade protectionism.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.573% | 2 Year | 2.332% |
| 5 Year | 1.566% | 5 Year | 2.287% |
| 10 Year | 1.695% | 10 Year | 2.481% |
| 30 Year | 1.987% | 30 Year | 2.906% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Mar Surv 0.3% Prior 0.1% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Mar Surv 0.2% Prior 0.1% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Mar Surv 1.9% Prior 1.9% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Mar Surv 2.4% Prior 2.5% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 6 Surv 210k Prior 202k | |
| Continuing Claims, Mar 30 Surv 1735k Prior 1717k | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 7 Prior 58.9 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | New Housing Price Index MoM, Feb Surv 0.0% Prior -0.1% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230