Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

US tsys trading slightly higher on low volume in TY futures (275k), 10Y 2.50%. March CPI and FOMC minutes this afternoon. Equities rebounding from Tuesday’s losses, S&P futures +7. Crude higher, 64.35 (+0.38) before DOE crude inventory data. OPEC’s latest monthly report points to tighter oil market due to supply cuts and Venezuela situation.  ECB left rates unch as expected, no further details on planned TLTROs announced five weeks ago.  Fed nominee Stephen Moore speaking on FOX business said the Dec rate increase was unwise, should be reversed.  GOCs higher,  1bp tighter vs tsys in the 10Y, the 10Y Can/US the narrowest in five weeks on GOC underperformance. At noon the BOC auctions $3.0bln in 2Y bonds – reopened 1.75% May 21s with the 2Y (Feb 21) yield 1.60% -unch from the last auction on March 21^st with the May/2Y roll slightly tighter -0.4/-0.5 vs -0.6 last auction.

News headlines

Stocks Rise as Treasury Yields Dip; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe gained along with U.S. equity futures on what’s set to be a busy day, with a European Central Bank rates decision and American inflation data among events on investors’ radar. Treasuries rose and the dollar was steady.

ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged as Euro-Area Economy Faces New Risks (Bloomberg) European Central Bank officials reiterated their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows, giving themselves time to assess prospects for the euro area’s weakened economy as it confronts new risks.

Tech in driver’s seat as S&P 500 flirts with record (Reuters) Technology stocks are extending their leadership on Wall Street as the S&P 500 trades near its all-time high, with Advanced Micro Devices Inc , Xilinx Inc and Xerox Corp among the top performers since last December’s sell-off that stirred fear of an end to a decade-long bull market.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures gain on rising crude prices (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Wednesday as tightening supply boosted oil prices.

Oil Near Five-Month High as U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Decline (Bloomberg) Oil rose in New York, trading near a five-month high, after industry data indicated a sharp decline in American gasoline inventories last week.

PRECIOUS-Gold steadies near two-week peak on economic growth fears (Reuters) Gold held steady near a two-week high on Wednesday as world equities retreated after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s March meeting.

U.S. bank CEOs face off with Congress for the first time since financial crisis (Reuters) Chief executives of some of the largest U.S. banks will testify before Congress on Wednesday, giving lawmakers their first opportunity to grill the lenders since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.604%	2 Year	2.34%
5 Year	1.596%	5 Year	2.304%
10 Year	1.727%	10 Year	2.501%
30 Year	2.008%	30 Year	2.913%

US Economic Data

7:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Apr 5 Actual -5.6% Prior 18.6%
8:30 AM	CPI MoM, Mar Surv 0.4% Actual 0.4% Prior 0.2%
	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Mar Surv 0.2% Actual 0.1% Prior 0.1%
	CPI YoY, Mar Surv 1.8% Actual 1.9% Prior 1.5%
	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Mar Surv 2.1% Actual 2.0% Prior 2.1%
	CPI Core Index SA, Mar Surv 261.465 Actual 261.374 Prior 260.989
	CPI Index NSA, Mar Surv 254.167 Actual 254.202 Prior 252.776
2:00 PM	Monthly Budget Statement, Mar Surv -$181.0b Prior -$208.7b

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys slightly higher, yields 0.5bps lower, S&P futures -3.5., crude 64.44 unch after yest 2.0% gain. Muted volume in TY futures (285k) with little in the way of macro drivers.  Bunds/gilts recovering form early plunge after news that Merkel had softened her stance on the Irish backstop limit, later denied by Germany. GOCs little changed, 10Y 1.73% , 10Y continues to cheapen on the curve, 10s30s snapped in 1.5bps yest following long TRP deal.  TRP priced $1bln 2049s @ 234 which looked to be an 8-10bp concession.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Drift With Bonds; Europe Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures were steady and European shares climbed as investors appeared to shrug off threats from President Donald Trump for new tariffs on goods produced in the EU. Treasuries steadied alongside the dollar.

TSX futures point to lower opening after six-day rally (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday after a six-day run of gains.

Potential U.S. auto tariffs would hurt Germany, Japan, Korea: Moody’s (Reuters) Ratings firm Moody’s said on Tuesday that potential auto tariffs by the United States would be a risk to global growth, hindering economic momentum in Germany, Japan and Korea.

Oil Holds Near Five-Month High Amid Libya, Iran Political Risks (Bloomberg) Oil in New York held near the highest level since late October as an escalation of geopolitical tensions in Libya and Iran fanned concerns over supplies.

Canadian dollar is ‘world’s most frustrating currency’: Strategist (BNN) The loonie’s failure to keep pace with the surge in crude oil prices this year was thrust into the spotlight Tuesday morning by a prominent strategist.

EU plans for own retaliation in aircraft dispute with U.S. (Reuters) The U.S. Trade Representative here on Monday proposed a range of EU products ranging from large commercial aircraft and parts to dairy products and wine to target as retaliation for subsidies given to Airbus.

China to review anti-dumping tariffs on U.S. distillers grains: document (Reuters) China’s Ministry of Commerce is set to review its anti-dumping tariffs on imports from the United States of distillers grains (DDGS), an animal feed ingredient, according to a document issued by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.621%	2 Year	2.358%
5 Year	1.605%	5 Year	2.326%
10 Year	1.737%	10 Year	2.52%
30 Year	2.006%	30 Year	2.93%

US Economic Data

6:00 AM	NFIB Small Business Optimism, Mar Surv 102.0 Actual 101.8 Prior 101.7
10:00 AM	JOLTS Job Openings, Feb Surv 7550 Prior 7581

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsy & GOC yields slightly higher, US 10Y 2.50%, low volume in TY futures (278k). Limited move in EGBs, 10Y bund unch 0.001%, UK gilts slightly higher before key EU Brexit summit. Greece outperforming with 10Y Greece/Bund spread at two-month lows. S&P futures slightly lower, crude extending gains above $63 on OPEC supply cuts, unrest in Libya and US sanctions. US Factory Orders/Durable Goods on tap, focus this week on CPI Wed and FOMC minutes on Thursday. Big week for Cdn corp issuance – $3.4bln across 5 issuers including Hydro One, GTAA, Altagas, Pembina, and Reliance LP. Low fills (~7% last week) illustrate demand remains robust across the maturity spectrum despite low all in yields, firm spreads and a flat curve.   

News headlines

Stocks Drift With Bonds; Oil Edges Higher on Libya: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Investors kicked off the week in a cautious mood, with stocks and government bonds drifting as progress toward a trade deal between America and China continued to drag. Oil rose as fighting in Libya raised the risk of supply outages.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slightly higher as oil at 5-month high  (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Monday, as crude oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and fighting in Libya.

Investors hit pause as central bank and Brexit risks loom (Reuters) World stocks paused on Monday after a strong recent run, as potential flashpoints including a crucial Brexit summit and central bank meetings loomed, and investors began to look ahead to an earnings season that may be disappointing.

Oil climbs to five-month high on OPEC cuts, U.S. sanctions and Libya fighting (Reuters) Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on Monday, driven by OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and fighting in Libya as well as strong U.S. jobs data.

Saudi Arabia says May will be key to decide on extending oil supply cuts (Reuters) The Saudi energy minister on Monday said it was premature to say whether a consensus existed among OPEC and its allies to extend oil supply cuts but a meeting next month would be key.

Euro edges higher from one-month lows; outlook cloudy (Reuters) The euro edged higher from a one-month low hit last week as investors squared positions before a European Central Bank meeting this week where policymakers may strike a cautious note on the region’s growth outlook.

May to Meet Merkel, Macron Ahead of Key EU Summit: Brexit Update (Bloomberg) Theresa May will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, a day before she makes her case for a Brexit extension at a key EU summit in Brussels. She needs to show she has a clear plan to ratify the divorce deal; an official said the government could make a compromise offer to the opposition Labour Party on Monday.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.592%	2 Year	2.337%
5 Year	1.573%	5 Year	2.305%
10 Year	1.704%	10 Year	2.499%
30 Year	1.976%	30 Year	2.909%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM	Factory Orders, Feb Surv -0.5% Prior 0.1%
	Durable Goods Orders, Feb F Surv -1.6% Prior -1.6%
	Durables Ex Transportation, Feb F Surv 0.1% Prior 0.1%
	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Feb F Prior -0.1%
	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Feb F Prior 0.0%

Canadian Economic Data

8:15 AM	Housing Starts, Mar Surv 196.0k Actual 192.5k Prior 173.2k
8:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Feb Surv 2.0% Actual -5.7% Prior -5.5%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230